My girlfriends and I with Lyft’s famous pink mustache

It is Saturday night. You and your friends are planning to go downtown for a few drinks. Instead of calling a cab, someone takes out her Iphone and books a ride with Patrick. He has a friendly smile, a five-star rating, and a white Toyota—with a pink mustache.

Lyft is a ride-sharing app that markets itself as “a friend with a car.” The economic transaction is more than just an exchange of service; it’s an experience. The app is free and syncs to your smart-phone. At any point in time, you can open up the app and hail a friendly Lyft driver around the area.

You enter the car, give the driver a fist-pump, and he or she entertains you with a friendly conversation as you are dropped off at your location. The transaction is processed by Lyft so you avoid the awkward paying and tipping process. Lyft raised $60 million in its third round funding last May with venture firm Andreessen Horowitz and company has grown to be available in 22 cities.

According to TechCrunch, Lyft is currently growing at a faster pace than its main competitor, Uber, with a 6% growth rate disclosed my its co-founder, John Zimmer (TechCrunch). Lyft has especially been popular especially with the tech-savvy and thrifty Millennial generation. Katherine, a college student from California, says it has to do with convenience and saving money.

“I use Lyft because it feels more personal and I feel like I can trust the drivers more. Plus it’s convenient to find a car from an app on my phone – I never know which number to call for a taxi or what service is better than another. Plus it’s cheaper. A ride to downtown via taxi can be $14, while using Lyft, I can get a rate as cheap as $8.”

If we dive further into the success of Lyft, we can find there are multiple economic forces at play. The first is the economic recession. In tough times, people are gathering part-time jobs to make ends meet. For instance, Patrick started Lyft to make more money on the side.

“I needed a second job to help pay some bills and also to help save up for grad school. I do see myself doing this long term because I can make some extra cash and not have it interfere with my regular work schedule.”

In every transaction, Lyft gets 20% of the cut. There are also “Prime Time Tips,” that escalates rates during high-demand periods (i.e. 11pm on a Saturday night). These tips can go as high as 70%, but the entirety of the increase goes to the drivers. Lyft gets to bypass the system by asking for “donations” rather than charging “fares.” The legality of this is as fuzzy as Lyft’s iconic pink mustache, evidenced by the app’s ban in certain cities like Seattle. However, this does not mean Lyft does not take safety seriously. In some aspects, Lyft’s screening process is harsher than some taxi companies, with higher standards on criminal records, and linking your Facebook for safety and providing insurance of up to $1m for the drivers. The car also has to be clean and presentable.

Another economic factor is proliferation of mobile technology. “There’s an app for that” is a common slogan in response to every day problems. Technology of apps and mobile phones have allowed companies like Lyft to reduce transaction costs. People are able to conduct business with private individuals rather than a chain. Perhaps ironically, through innovation, our generation is reverting back to a peer to peer localized model. People have referred to this phenomenon as the sharing economy, or collaborative consumption.

Rachel Botsman, the co-author of What’s Mine Is Yours: The Rise of Collaborative Consumption, talks about how technology is enabling trust between strangers, and this concept of collaborative consumption is a “powerful cultural and economic force reinventing not just what we consume, but how we consume.” Botsman writes collaborative consumption is a class of economic arrangements in which participants share access to products or services, rather than having individual ownership.

Named as one of TIME’s 10 ideas that will change the world in 2011, the concept of collaborative consumption has proved it is a force to be reckoned with. Botsman co-wrote the book in 2010, and since then, the concept has taken the app world by storm, with giants like Airbnb, Uber and Lyft rounding billions from venture capitalists. However, this new concept is disrupting the economic system. In Lyft’s case, the service is a huge threat to the taxi and limo service industry. Formally trained drivers who are screened in a testing and licensing system are now competing with normal civilians. In essence, the barriers to entry to the transportation industry has been compromised.

There has also been tensions between governments and the new model. In 2012, the California Public Utilities Commission issued “cease and desist” letters to Lyft along with other similar services. Although the knee-jerk reaction may be the issue of safety, there are many factors contributing to the debate of this new business model. Taxi and limousine companies who once enjoyed monopolies are heavily lobbying against legalizing these services. In addition, many cities rely on the regulation fees these companies pay to operate, fees private ride sharing programs are not obliged to pay.

“To me it’s a really dumb debate,” Patrick says.

“The real concern for the state of California and other states that Lyft operates in is that they see private ride sharing programs as entities that are taking money from them. They hide under the issue of safety, but their arguments are based off of taxi companies having to pay fees regulated by the state while private ride sharing programs do not. How does that equate to being concerned about passenger safety? It’s really ridiculous.”

The issue of safety is always brought up in these debates. However, it seems like Millennials have more faith in strangers. Katherine says “the idea of communicating even with a stranger online isn’t quite as daunting anymore.”

“There’s a growing inherent trust between young people in this generation (twenty-somethings), so doing things like calling a cab or organizing a ride share through an app or online service doesn’t seem so out of ordinary, and most don’t think anyone is trying to scam them.”

Patrick says the age of his passengers range from 21-45, which is consistent with the wide belief ride-sharing is embraced mostly by the Millennial generation. Botsman asserts that we now live in a global village, and there is a new importance of reputation. In Lyft’s case, transactions are followed by a rating system, from these reviews these drivers and users leave a trail. If you average less than 4.5 stars, you are in danger of being dropped. Our ability to collaborate is quantified into a form of “reputation capital,” and it is put in public display, and ultimately determining our access to collaborative consumption.

Last September, the State of California became the first state to regulate ride-sharing, or what is now newly dubbed as “transportation network companies.” Depending on how these new rules perform, other cities may follow the California framework in the future.

Economic indicators are crucial to helping determine the state of the economy. As we are unable to physically or literally see the economy per se, economic indicators allow us to not only confirm economic trends (lagging indicators), but they also enable to help us predict future patterns and cycles.

While economists mostly rely on economic indicators such as a nation’s gross domestic product, unemployment rate, or consumer price index, there are also more unusual and unconventional indicators which may illustrate an economy’s state. An economic indicator that I found particularly interesting was the Marine Advertisement Intensity Index. The concept is simple: The more intense in nature the advertisements for the Marines were, the weaker the job market – and subsequently, the economy.

The Marines – as well as any branch of the U.S. military – offers many benefits in order to make enlisting more desirable and appealing to potential new recruits. According to the Marines’ official website, a Marine can enjoy “full health coverage, access to on-base medical facilities, free on-base housing, monthly housing allowances, low-cost mortgage loans and educational funding.” Furthermore, Marine families are also offered additional amenities, including healthcare, day-care and counselling. During an economic recession, these benefits and the promise of job security can seem especially appealing to high-school graduates who may feel that a potentially high college loan is unjustified – especially if the prospects of a future job are uncertain. In contrast, during times of economic prosperity, more high-school graduates are likely to go to college – therefore lowering the number of new Marine recruits.

The intensity of Marine advertisements is then reflected in the amount of people who enlist. In 2005, the Marines’ advertisement “The Climb” sought to recruit new members by invoking feeling of patriotism, pride, and accomplishment. The advertisement depicts a lone young man climbing a cliff without any equipment. While he struggles, images of Marines in full dress uniform, helping young children, and working together under a waving American flag are superimposed on the cliff-face encourage him to climb on. At the end, the advertisement emphasizes teamwork and duty in order to convince young men to enlist. In 2005 the economy and the job market was booming – however at the same time, it was a tough year in terms of Marine recruitment. The advertisement sought to recruit all who were willing – evident in its highly emotive, patriotic advertisement.

In 2008, however, saw the Marine Corps not only meeting but exceeding recruitment goals for the next three years. Furthermore, 99% of the new recruits were high-school graduates – up from 95%. Subsequently, the 2009 Marines advertisement, “America’s Few,” depicted a very different lifestyle than the one shown in the 2004 advertisement. In “America’s Few,” three men are shown enduring the rigorous challenges of boot-camp training, including but not limited to, running through intense obstacle courses, undergoing intense physical training, and bracing brutal, unforgiving weather. This grittier, perhaps more realistic depiction of military life illustrates a change in mentality – with more people willing to sign up, the Marines have the luxury of choice and can afford to be pickier in who they recruit.

U.S. Annual Unemployment Rate

When looking at the data, there is a clear correlation between unemployment rates and the number of new recruit. In 2004, the U.S. unemployment rate was 5.5%. In 2009, however, this rate soared to 9.3%. (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.) The number of new recruits in 2004 and 2009 fiscal year were 36,794 and 42,226 respectively. (Marine Corps. Times, U.S. Department of Defense)

The trend seems to have continued, with the Marine Corps accession rate dropping to 32,215 in 2013. (Department of Defense) At the same time, their numerical accession goals have dropped – perhaps in anticipation of a slowly recovering job market. Does that mean we can expect – assuming unemployment rates continue to drop – not only fewer recruits, but also recruits who are not as strong as the recruits of 2008 or 2009? It is interesting that in an unstable economy, more and more Americans are willing to endure not only arduous physical military training but also the possibility of warfare and violence in hopes of securing a better future – just a glimpse into the desperation that the Great Recession created.

I was a sophomore in high school when the 2008 financial crisis happened. As naïve teenagers, my friends and I were more concerned with the upcoming Homecoming Dance rather than the stock market crash.

My mother, Judy Kim, owns a small dress store in LA’s historic Java Market (so I guess you can say every girl in school was jealous of me). Fall is traditionally a hot season because of high school dances (i.e. Homecoming, Winter Formal), but profits suddenly declined after the crisis.

“After 2008, people just weren’t spending,” Judy says. Since beautiful dresses are a luxury, Judy’s small business has been effected largely by cyclical shifts in the economy.

“Most of our customers were blue collar folks. Even so, we had parents who came in every week for months to pay off a 500 dollar dress for their daughter’s Quinceañera. As the recession got worse, more and more customers would beg for a refund. Some people just stopped showing up and did not pick up their phones.”

Judy had to make changes in sales tactics in order to make up for the loss during the recession. First and most obvious, she cut prices. Instead of the normal 50% return, the store now had a mark-up of 30%. The store is now constantly having a sale, but customers are always haggling the price more than ever. Judy came up with the idea of selling all-inclusive packages to entice customers. For example, a Quinceañera set can include: customization of a dress, a headpiece, and a pair of gloves with the girl’s initials embroidered on it.

The store also reduced the amount of employees. One summer, Judy taught herself how to use a sewing machine, and started doing alternations on the dresses herself. She taught me how to use Excel so I could record sales and calculate the commission of each employee. During the past tough years, everyone in my family was expected to contribute.

One glaring factor that contributed to Judy’s decline in sales was that her specific target consumer demographic experienced the hardest hit during the recession: the Hispanic population. “In the Fashion District, Jewish people own many of the buildings, and Koreans work in wholesale. Many stores employ Hispanics, and majority of the shoppers in the area are also Hispanic.”As a first-generation Korean American, Judy is not completely fluent in English—in fact, she is more fluent in Spanish. Located in Downtown Los Angeles, Judy’s store caters to a high Hispanic consumer base, which explains why there are three main types of dresses at her store: wedding, prom, and Quinceañera.

The Hispanic population in Los Angeles is almost 5 million according to a 2012 report by the US Census Bureau. According to a 2010 congressional report released by the Congress’ Joint Economic Committee, Hispanics have been named as the group that has experienced the hardest hit during the recession. The report showed that the Hispanic unemployment rate was only slightly above the overall national unemployment rate in 2006, when my mother’s dress shop was enjoying considerable profits.

However, by 2009, the rate soared to 13.1%, around 3 percentage points higher than the national rate. The disproportionate impact on the Hispanic community is partly due to the housing bubble’s impact on the construction sector. Information from the report also suggest unauthorized immigrants may have experienced the most impact in employment.

The decrease of disposable income has caused customers to be incredibly price conscious. Judy’s biggest competition has been online retailers. Start-ups like “Rent the Runway” allow users to rent a dress for a much cheaper price. Since dresses are not exactly necessities, people who are looking to save money find renting a wedding or Quinceañera dress is an economically smarter alternative than buying one and never wearing it again. Many of the dress stores have closed down, but Judy does not plan on giving up anytime soon.

“In this business, it is all about standing out. We are constantly trying to find a way to offer our customers something they cannot find anywhere else, including the internet.”

One huge advantage Judy has had over the years was that her sister is a fashion designer. Another secret weapon of hers is that her brother also has a dress shop, not too far from her own. Having the support of her family has been her greatest asset. The Kim siblings actually had plans of starting a retail website. However, my mother still has one huge reservation.

“Social media scares me. One bad review can kill your whole business, and kids are mean these days!”

Amazebowls – acai bowls topped with fruit and granola

Desmond Ng is the co-founder and owner of “Amazebowls,” a trendy, popular food truck that can usually be found situated on the outskirts of USC. Contrary to the stereotype, Amazebowls doesn’t sell the stereotypical greasy street fare one might expect; instead, this bright purple truck offers customers fresh and tasty acai (ah-sigh-ee) bowls, topped with fruit and granola. Described by Ng as a “healthy alternative to ice-cream or sorbet,” these vegan and gluten-free treats offer health-conscious students a delicious replacement to the usual fast food options offered at USC.

Amazebowls was founded in August 2013 by Desmond Ng and Bryan Leong after the two came across the concept in Santa Barbara. “I pretty much fell in love with them,” Ng admitted. “However, when I came back to LA, I realised that hardly anyone was selling it. Places that did sell it were either too expensive or not that good at all. So I started making them at home, and my friends told me that if I wanted to start something with it they’d invest in it. So we tested it out at SC – we trialled it at a couple of different events like Taste of Downtown LA, KXSC-fest, Springfest, Study Nights… and the response was really positive.”

One of the most difficult obstacles for a small business is finding initial capital – whether that be through loans, investors, or one’s own savings – especially in the current economy. According to Gallp Inc., 28% of small businesses indicated that they were less optimistic about their business’ future going into 2014 than they were going into 2013. While Ng was fortunate enough to have two close friends who were willing to invest in him and the product, he too struggled to initially start his business. “We wanted to start a store, but we couldn’t find a good location at a good price,” said Ng.  “A food truck was our next best option.”

As Amazebowls is a relatively new business, it hasn’t had much time to adapt to the ever changing economic cycles. Furthermore, its main customer base – USC students – doesn’t seem, at least in the short-term, too frugal about spending their disposable income. “We haven’t really been affected so far from the recession,” said Ng.

However Amazebowls still had is main share of challenges. Ng lists the factor of uncertainty as one of the biggest challenges in running his business. “It’s [the food industry] very competitive,” explained Ng. “We have to do a lot to make ends meet – even though we get a lot of sales, the costs are really high. The costs of running the truck, wages, running costs, etc. It all adds up.” Furthermore, the recent opening of “Nectar,” a juice bar on campus serves as another competitor to Amazebowl, targeting a similar audience.

While Ng doesn’t have to pay rent, owning a food truck offers a different set of challenges. “Sourcing a food truck is not cheap, and a lot of people don’t realise how big the expenses are,” explained Ng. “Also, a lot of things are just out of our control. It’s not like a store where things are fixed and people can deliver to you – we only have a certain amount of space in the truck and we have to restock every day. It takes a few hours for us to get all our supplies. It can also be difficult finding parking. If we don’t find parking in the morning, we can lose crucial hours of business which cuts into our profits.”

Amazebowls is also heavily affected by the weather and the seasons. “The weather definitely affects our business – even more so because we’re a food truck. People don’t like coming to food trucks when it’s cold,” said Ng. “We also definitely felt that there was less business after big holidays like New Year’s and Christmas – people had spent too much during that  time and were not as willing to go out as much to eat.” Furthermore, the colder weather has not only decreased their customer base but also increased costs. For example, since the summer, the price of strawberries – a main fruit in the acai bowl – have gone up dramatically, further affecting Amazebowl’s profit margins.

A major concern which has not only Ng but other food truck and small business owners worried is the possibility of minimum wage going up. “Right now, we’re reworking our cash flow just in case minimum wage goes up,” explained Ng. “That’s a big thing. A lot of food truck owners that I speak to are worried that the increase in minimum wage will affect their businesses. Basically you’ll have to either raise your prices or absorb the losses – and that eats into your profit a lot.” When asked whether Ng will resort raising prices if wages do go up, Ng showed reluctance. “I’d rather not,” he admitted. Instead, Ng hopes to be able build a larger, loyal customer base with aggressive and clever marketing techniques so that profits maintain high.

In the future, Ng hopes to be able to expand Amazebowls into an actual store – however the challenges that come with that are immense. Rent is a main factor, with the average price per square foot in Los Angeles increasing 13.8% from last year to $428. “A lot of food trucks try and get into stores and they end up being unsuccessful,” said Ng. “We did a lot of research, and it’s a lot easier for a restaurant to get a food truck than a food truck trying to become a restaurant. We have to do a lot more research, and wait for both us and the economy to be in a good place.”

Tuhao, a Chinese word, has been getting very popular since last September on the Internet. BBC magazine translated it as “nouveau riche”, someone who comes from a poor peasant background, and has made it rich quickly – but  doesn’t quite have the manners or sophistication to go along with it. “Tuhao, lets be friends!” has become one of the hottest topics in China.

According to National Bureau of Statistics of China, GDP has increased 7.7%  from last year, which is higher than the predicted number 7.5%. However, that is the lowest increase since 1995.  International trade also decreased from  2012. A famous economist, Nouriel Roubini said to CNNMoney last week that  50% of China’s economic growth comes from the government.  That’s not sustainable. Honestly, China could be called as a big Tuhao with its GDP increase, but most Chinese people are not even rich with 38,420.38 RMB GDP per capita. China is experiencing an inflection point now. The magic “8” growth rate helped some people to be very rich fast and then they started to invest all over the world. As we know, investments, exports and consumption are three supporting elements for China’s GDP increases.

“Tuhao” style investment- Vineyards buying

A Chinese businessman who just bought a vineyard in France died in a helicopter crash after his vineyard tour with his son, according to The Wall Street Journal. Vineyards investments unveiled because of the news. Chinese businessmen bought more than 60 vineyards in the past five years. The Chinese population consumed about 156 million 9-liter cases of wine in 2011, placing it in fifth place among the top wine-consuming nations worldwide, according to Vinexpo’s study. It also predicts a 36% increase in wine consumption in China vs. 9% in the rest of the world, a 54% rise from 2011 to 2015.

“Tuhao” style investment- Luxury shopping

According to United Nations World Tourism Organization in 2013, Chinese travelers became the world’s biggest spenders, shelling out about $102 billion overseas. It predicts that by 2015, total Chinese spending abroad will exceed total global luxury sales. The reason that so many Chinese travelers buy luxury goods from outside country because its extreme high import duties, which add up to 60% to the original price in China, according to Quartz. Therefore the rich Chinese people prefer to travel outside China.

“Tuhao” investment- Expensive houses

According to the National Association of Realtors, Chinese are now the second-largest foreign buyers of homes in U.S., accounting for $7.4 billion of sales in the 12 months ended March 2011. Because of the housing bubble in China, more rich people choose to investment homes in U.S.. Most of them probably concern about China’s political instability, inflation, food safety even pollution.

“Tuhao” investment-Venture Capital

The China’s top political advisors discussed reform in science, innovation and technology last December, which put forward proposals on the management of investment for scientific and technological development…building an environment for promoting innovation, the transformation of scientific achievement, according to Xinhua news agency. At the same time, more U.S. tech startups hope to find investors from Chinese and start their business in China. Chinese venture capital firms backed 28 U.S. companies in 2011, nearly double the number two years earlier, according to Dow Jones VentureSource. China’s magic growth, large population and government’s desire set a stage for more deals between China and U.S. technology companies.

“Tuhao” China has developed so fast these years. I think it’s the time to slow down and wait for the people.

A research team from Reuter’s posted a pair of charts (see Figure 1 below) with nearly paralleled curves back in 2011 which suggests that Macau’s gaming revenue tells a lot about China’s economy. The curves reveal not only how China’s collective wealth has grown, but also where that big chunk of money is going, given the fact that many managed to legitimize shady income amid the buzz at the world’s new casino capital.

China’s GDP boom since around 2003 has created new wealth among heads of national conglomerates as well as regional manufacturing-oriented powerhouses. Some city officials – the likes of Bo Xilai and Liu Zhijun – also took their share from doing “favors” to businesses cutting deals for government contracts. Whatever their day jobs may be, these people are the “high-fliers” when they land at Wynn’s VIP room in Macau. And change in Wynn’s gaming revenue often suggests tweaks in the Chinese government’s grip on its economy and its mega rich.

Figure 1. Macau Gaming Revenue and China GDP

Chinese high rollers made up nearly two thirds of Macau’s gaming revenue, not out of their love for throwing dice, but because they saw Macau a good fit for money laundering, according to an article from The Economist. With enough help from an apt junket, a corrupted government official who has taken bribes in yuan can readily swap his filthy money into Macanese pataca at a gambling table. A billionaire who has cut corners to get rich and wants to elude future scrutiny when political tide changes can turn most of his fortune into foreign dollars and hoard them better. In some other cases, the rich simply don’t want to put his money at home.

These are the main players in China’s economy, and the way they’ve chosen to do with their money reveals two things: a) a big chunk of the new wealth has left China instead of being reinvested into sustainable economic activities; and b) there is a trust issue between China’s nouveau riche and Beijing because the latter still has authority to crush someone’s property for no solid reason.

When China’s new leadership laid down rules in early 2012 to crack down on lavish spending and its more recent rein in corruption, we’d expect them to have an impact on Macau’s gaming revenue much as they did to the sales of foreign luxury brands. The cynical ones on social media, however, said the new measures would always be staying just on paper.

If we check Macau’s gaming revenues for answers, it presents a different story, as world-class alcohol makers and watchmakers took hit from Beijing’s gift crackdown.

China’s inflation-adjusted GDP changed less in 2013 than a year earlier, going upward by 7.2 percent and 10.3 percent respectively (see figure 2 & 3 below for real GDP calculation).

Figure 2. China GDP Annual Growth Rate 2006-2013
 
Figure 3. China Inflation Rate 2006-2013
During the same period, however, Macau’s gaming revenue kept climbing in two consecutive years despite a slowdown in China’s economy. The number went up first by 13.5 percent in 2012, and again by 19 percent one year later, according to Yahoo News and The Wall Street Journal. Meanwhile, there has been a flurry of Chinese tourists touring and buying real estates in the U.S. The rich folks may have sped up transferring their money outside China as Beijing’s new leadership tightens its grip.