Cord Cutting And The Future

cable-TV-cord-cutting

The traditional cable plan has been hit hard by the consumer driven term “cord cutting”. The Internet has thrown curve balls to a number of industries since its creation and cable TV is currently up to bat. Cord cutting is the word used to describe a consumer ending their relationship with traditional cable packages and turning towards internet-based alternatives. The cable industry has always been dominated by a few powerful players. High barriers to entry, mainly hefty start up costs, meant there was largely little competition.   The internet, however, took down most of the walls and gave consumers easy access to content on a number of different sites.

 

Cable TV packages offer consumers a bundle of content for a monthly price. Included in these content bundles is a range of different programming. While consumers may only watch a select few of the channels included, they must pay for the entire bundle. When cutting the cord, or at least considering it, consumers cite four main reasons. Over half of the respondents cited convenience and flexibility as the main reasons, with advertisements and price also regularly cited according to ComScore’s “The U.S. Total Video Report.”

 

As a result of the internet, and a response to consumer needs, a number of streaming services have popped up giving consumers more freedom in their viewing experiences and a cheaper alternative. In terms of cord cutting, streaming has led “5 percent of U.S. TV subscribers to cut their subscriptions between 2008 and 2013, with 1.25 million (1.3 percent of the total subscriber base) snipping the cords in 2013. The researchers predicted that U.S. TV cord-cutter households will hit 6.23 million (6.2 percent) by the end of 2014.” – Convergence Consulting Group

http://www.fiercecable.com/story/report-canadians-slicing-tv-cord-pace-us-counterparts/2014-04-08

 

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https://www.moffettnathanson.com/aboutus.aspx

 

While streaming has seen success, it hasn’t completely taken out cable, leaving the future of TV still somewhat up in the air. Cable still has many things going for it and has the upper hand on streaming in a few areas. If cable is able to adapt to the consumer in the ways streaming has, the future of TV could be one of cord shaving, not cord cutting. The competition between these two content distributors is complex and simply cutting the cord may not be so easy. The TV landscape while certainly shifting is not shifting towards a single alternative. Rather, the industry is opening up to many alternatives, including the original players, leaving it up to consumers to create their own bundle of content providers.

 

Streaming took the opportunity to capitalize on cable’s mistakes and in turn was able to fix the four most prominent consumer complaints. Cable TV has been the same for quite some time and until now hasn’t had to change. While the cable TV model hasn’t been a consumer pleasing one for a while, few alternatives had kept people paying for the service. The internet opened the industry up to alternatives and left the old pay TV model to play catch up as consumer tailored streaming services began attracting customers. Content streaming sites such as Netflix and Hulu have risen to success relatively quickly because they are consumer focused. Netflix recently reach over 50 million subscribers in 2014. The first problem streaming solves is price, as most of the services are offered for around $10 a month. Though consumers may choose to subscribe to a number of different sites, increasing costs, streaming gives the consumer more control over how much they pay. The lower prices also open the market to consumers who aren’t avid TV watchers. For the consumer who only wishes to watch TV on occasion, close to a hundred bucks a month is a hefty price tag with cable.

Back in 2011, when Netflix was just starting to become popular, CEO Reed Hastings was quoted as to why Netflix was successful. “The streaming service is priced so that people who use it once or twice a month will still find value and come back. And those who use it once or twice a week will rave about it to friends.”

The low prices take the pressure off utilization and in turn have increased the market for subscriptions. The price structure takes TV out of the luxury product category and places it closer to that of an impulse purchase or an easy buy. Netflix has stated that their core principle is “personalization and user choice” and with this principle they have given the consumer the power.

 

The power doesn’t just stop with pricing either, streaming gives users access to a database of content available to be used at any time. The eight PM television slot used to be the heyday of the daily TV schedule but, over time the American lifestyle has evolved, and people are busier than ever. Cable gives viewers access to content only when it is scheduled and this model no longer fits with the on demand lifestyle the American consumer is living. With the digital age, instant gratification has become a consumer necessity and streaming has given users just that with TV they can choose to watch at any time.

 

Lastly, streaming has solved the problem of advertisements. As the American lifestyle gets busier and busier, consumers have less and less patience for unnecessary time suckers like commercials. The distaste for commercials has led to a number of inventions, starting with recording devices such as TiVo. Sites like Netflix have taken it one step further by deleting commercials completely. With the cable model, commercials are what make money as advertisers pay hefty prices to promote their product alongside hit shows. The more viewers watching a show, the more an advertiser will pay, meaning it matters how much and how often a user watches TV. Netflix has changed this model with its subscription fee. Regardless if a user watches one show or fifty a month, the site makes the same amount of money. This means Netflix’s only concern is the number of subscribers. So instead of shoving mixed content bundles down consumer’s throats, Netflix only has to focus on the consumer experience. It doesn’t matter what you use of Netflix content, just that you sign up. Because of this, Netflix has created an extremely attractive consumer experience.

 

While there are a number of things the streaming industry is doing to win customers over, live TV isn’t one of them. Streaming offers content to consumers when they want it, except if they want it live. Although this isn’t a problem for TV shows and movies, it poses a major problem to the passionate sports fan. Many in the TV industry have labeled sports the glue of the cable bundle. A Harris Interactive Poll recently conducted, found “43 percent of U.S. adults naming live sports as the reason they won’t cancel cable.” Sports are a major TV event for many households and because of this, cable TV hasn’t been completely overrun. Though many consumers would want to pay for sports alone, cable TV is sold in bundles meaning sports are package alongside a hundred other channels.   While the price tag for the bundle to only watch a fraction of the channels is large, to many sports fans it is still worth it.

USA Today contributor Jennifer Jolly speaks on why sports and streaming haven’t quite worked.

“The trouble with online streaming services for sports is that most of them are subject to media blackouts, meaning broadcasters have exclusive rights to live games. So the home team, which you’d see broadcast on a local station, won’t be available to watch on any online streaming service. So it’s pretty tough — but not impossible — to watch live sports online, legally.”

Sports are certainly a major part of the cable equation, and the way access to live games is handled will be a major factor in cable TV’s future. If cable providers are able to keep exclusive access to sports content, then they will slow the cord cutting movement. With sports, many people have questioned why cable networks don’t offer a sports only bundle, which could save certain customers’ money. While this idea in theory sounds like a good one, it doesn’t work in cables current model. By the time all the fees are added up in order for the networks to make money, the price would still amount to a hefty $50 dollars plus for only about 13 channels. http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-11-12/why-cable-tv-mini-bundle-for-sports-would-be-expensive-and-unlikely

More so, the large bundle of channels allows cable companies to package worthless channels with expensive ones that users are willing to pay for. An all sports bundle would mean people would no longer be paying for the worthless channels and it would result in lost revenue across the board. Sports give cable positioning power in this new market space. If cable is able to find a way to leverage that power in a consumer pleasing way, there is a space for them to be successful in. The expensive standardized channel packed bundle has lost its appeal, as consumers now want a custom experience with their content. While currently an all sports bundle does not economically work, cable companies need to find a way to make smaller more curated bundles. A smaller bundle that included sports would appeal to many levels of sports fans, including those who only put the game on occasionally. With sports in their pocket, it is not too late for cable companies to make changes to better compete is the consumer tailored market.

 

Sports however, aren’t the only reason people are choosing to stay plugged in. Comscore found “that 24 percent of TV viewers ages 18 to 34 don’t subscribe to a traditional pay TV service”. Nearly 46 percent of those viewers never had cable to begin with, while the rest simply cut the cord. While the numbers cited here seem large, they are only large for the younger generation. In the same study, Comscore found that, “generally speaking, the older the viewer the greater percentage of time spent watching on traditional”. The cable alternatives, such as streaming, are all recently developed digital platforms that to many older viewers seem “incredibly complicated”. So while cable may seem like a hassle, to some the internet seems like a far more complicated alternative. On top of the generational gap, the cable providers are often a homes broadband subscriber as well. As a result, cable companies often offer combined internet, phone and TV packages. To many users cord cutting means changing more than just their cable package and the hassle isn’t quite worth it. The younger generation, more specifically the millennial generation, has grown up with the internet and streaming is a much more natural progression. Several studies have reported a rise in people who have never even had a cord. While cord cutting seems to be on the rise with the youngest forth of the population, many of the generations that grew up with TV have held out. Though cable companies are going to have to change, many consumers are still plugged in and a consumer-focused change may be enough to stop the cutting.

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Streaming has solved many of cables problems but, to many users this hasn’t been enough to cut the cord and as a result, streaming has had to go one step further. With many users choosing to keep cable due to live TV and other reasons, Netflix hasn’t gotten its 50 million subscribers from cord cutters alone. In order to grow, streaming has had to position itself not only as a cable alternative but a cable addition. More so than a cable addition, individual streaming sites have had to make themselves standout amongst each other. Streaming’s success has led to a number of players entering the game and while different sites differ slightly, they all largely offer the same thing. Not only are new streaming companies arising but traditional companies are adapting as HBO and CBS just recently announced plans to offer streaming options. Due to competition, these streaming sites have positioned themselves as the subscription a customer needs to have, regardless if they already have cable or other streaming subscriptions. The most notable way this has played out is through original content. Sites like Hulu and Netflix have created their own shows and mini-series in order to appeal to customers. Netflix had huge success this year with their series Orange Is The New Black, a show exclusively available on Netflix. “Netflix Inc. (NFLX), posted second-quarter signups that beat analysts’ estimates as the women’s prison series “Orange Is the New Black” lifted users past 50 million.” – Bloomberg.com. The original content is a draw for users, and the low subscription fee has led many users to sign up just for a single show. Original content has positioned streaming to be something users want no matter what their TV situation is, and it has allowed these services to grow tremendously.

 

The way streaming sites have diversified themselves has made streaming less about which site is the best and more about how added together a consumer could get the ultimate viewing experience. The cable industry is changing as the TV world becomes unbundled, however, nothing has stood out as a one-stop solution for TV. The different streaming sites out there now offer different content, different plans, and different benefits. There hasn’t been one yet that has been able to address all consumers’ needs in the way cable did in the past.   As a result, the unbundled world of TV may actually be a bundled world, just a curated bundle. The avid TV watcher is not happy with just one streaming site or just cable, and as a result, there have been many consumers subscribing to multiple services at once.   Following this trend, a few products have come out like Roku that allow users to display their many streaming services in an app like fashion on their TV. Instead of flipping through channels, users pick content from their subscription services, one night they may watch Netflix, the next it could be Hulu. Depending on the user’s budget and need for content, they could subscribe to any number of sites weighing which subscriptions they want to pay for. For many users, the totaled subscriptions have ended up looking very close to their original cable bill, however, the freedom to create their own bundle has left many customers more satisfied with their content. There have also been a number of users that choose to rack up subscriptions on top of their cable bill.  The number of people subscribing to streaming on top of their cable bill could grow tremendously if cable companies offer smaller personalized bundles. Bloomberg’s Lucas Shaw, using data from Hudson Square Research, states that “it would cost over $100 a month to subscribe to Netflix, Hulu, HBO, CBS, the Tour de France, WWE wrestling and three of the four major pro sports leagues. And that’s on top of what you’re already paying for Internet.”   Though consumers have been racking up subscriptions fees these fees are for hand picked content not a giant bundle. While streaming’s low prices may be a draw for some, for others, price is just a small part of the equation. The cable bundle leaves consumers to believe they are paying for unwanted content and therefore wasting money. Streaming bills that could total close to that of a cable bill aren’t seen as wasted money because each dollar is specifically and personally spent by the consumer. Together, these streaming sites have been able to give consumers what cable never has, a personalized experience.

roku

 

If cable companies are going to survive in this shifting environment they need to focus on the consumer. Cables solution doesn’t lie in the little problems, but rather the fact that the average consumer is changing. The main reasons people cite for switching to streaming are price, access to content, convenience, and advertisements. All four reasons are part of the larger consumer trend, personalization.   The one size fits all model no longer works as the present day consumers expect personalization in almost all markets. Cables strategy of more is better by creating a massive bundle is no longer what the consumer wants. Streaming, while largely a result of technology and the Internet, it is more so a result of the evolving consumer. The internet has given marketers a way to access more consumer data than ever, and as a result, they can deliver customized advertisements and product deals. The present day consumer has not only become accustomed to this personalization, but wants and expects it. According to Forbes Insights, “more than three-quarters of consumers saw the benefit of trading personal information for more relevant discounts and offers, and 62% were willing to do so in return for personalized offers.” http://www.forbes.com/sites/sap/2014/03/12/personalization-the-secret-to-better-customer-experience/

Netflix is a prime example of the personal media experience. Netflix offers three ways to watch their content: instantly to a computer, instantly to a TV, or through mail in DVDS. Beyond the viewing experience, Netflix allows customers to rate content and the site offers tailored movie suggestions to the consumer. Netflix also keeps a database of what the user has watched and provides personalized movie ratings for new movies based on the user’s previous scores. Personalization is where TV is headed regardless of the viewing platform or subscription site. Users want control and that is what streaming has provided them.

“With social media, YouTube and Netflix serving up exactly what the user wants, it’s no wonder that personalization is no longer a luxury, but an expectation. Businesses that fail to understand this change are charged with the unenviable task of shoehorning old media into a market that demands change and adaptation.” – Eric Siu Contributor for Entrepreneur magazine http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/236574

The consumer has changed and cable has remained mostly the same, but it is not too late for cable to catch up.

 

Streaming sites have been the first response to the changing consumer and while this has gained them interest, this interest hasn’t been enough to break down cable. The internet has left many companies behind but the TV industry isn’t quite there yet. Cable TV is not in the same position the CD was in a decade ago where technology overran it. Cable is still largely in homes across the country and has an upper hand to consumer access both with cable and internet services. The problem cable companies face is not getting consumers, but keeping them. If cable is able to offer consumers a chance to personalize their bundle they are well positioned to survive. Cables power over live TV and broadcast exclusive content means they already have the diversification these streaming companies have had to create. If cable companies can unbundle to some extent and position themselves as one of consumers many content sources, they have a chance. Traditional cable TV as an outlet is not what is outdated, the customer experience these cable companies provide is. The TV landscape is getting unbundled giving consumers the ability to put the bundle back together again. This new bundle may in fact include many of the original cable TV players and a well in tact cord. The decisions these cable companies make and how they change in response to the new consumer demands will prove to be vital. With the many content providers out there now, the industry isn’t looking at cord cutting, but cord shaving. Consumers have proven that they aren’t looking for an all-encompassing solution to TV but rather; they want the ability to create their own solution by piecing together many content providers. The story of cable may well not be one of competition against streaming but one of unity with streaming. While cord cutting is a very easy word to throw around, the TV industry isn’t just looking at a switch between cable and streaming, but rather a restructure of the entire consumer experience. The cable giants are still big players in the game with a strong lineup (live TV) and how they bat will be extremely important to the TV landscape.

 

Are we moving into an era of 4D?

Everywhere is white with snow and the wind is howling. You are tumbling down the icy mountain wall with three baby penguins and a penguin egg. With cold-blast air blowing in your face, you are neither in Antarctica nor in day dreaming. You are in movie, a 4D movie.

When the newborn penguin breaks out of the egg shell, the seats jerk. Then a voiceover comes along, “It’s the miracle of birth.”

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Source: the-numbers.com

While still going through the “post-Avatar” age, the age of 3D revival, the movie theaters are not satisfied with the declining box office and are trying the new gimmick, 4D technology, to get more people into the theaters.

As a leading role of pushing the 4D system, Seoul-headquartered CJ group opened a 104-seat 4D theater with its partner Regal Cinemas in LA Live this June, the first of the kind in the United States. “We opened the first auditorium in L.A. because it’s the place where Hollywood is located,” says Yassamine Wahab, marketing director for CJ 4DPlex. CJ 4DPlex, a branch of conglomerate CJ Group, is the company that designed 4D.

Theodore Kim, chief operating officer, LA LAB of CJ 4DPLEX. He is surrounded by fog, one of many effects created by the companies 4DX system. (Gary Friedman / Los Angeles Times)

Theodore Kim, chief operating officer, LA LAB of CJ 4DPLEX. (Gary Friedman / Los Angeles Times)

CJ Group and its partner have confidence in drawing crowds with the 4D technology. “It makes the movie, the viewing even more realistic and it puts you in the middle of the action that makes you feel exactly how the characters feel,” says Michael Roth, VP of the communications for AEG.

It shakes. It rains. It smokes. It blows. It smells. It lights. It bubbles. It also cashes in.

The 4D theater in Downtown L.A. is outperforming traditional movie theaters, according to Variety. For instance, “Transformers: Age of Extinction” generated $105,016, an 138 percent more than the national average of $44,054, during its first thirteen days. “Dawn of the Planet of the Apes” performed even better, taking in $94,247 during the first 13 days, 145 percent more than the industry average. “The one theater that equipped with 4D system sells out on a regular basis,” Roth says.

Although higher ticket prices certainly give it a higher box office than other regular cinemas, the occupancy rate is still impressive. Regardless of the weekday, the weekend, or the title, it enjoyed an average attendance rate of 63 percent. Most theaters’ attendance rates vary between 10 percent to 15 percent. “It’s beyond expectations. People were very curious about this process, so that they came early to see the showings,” Roth says.

The average ticket price of a 4D movie is $15, about $7 more than the U.S. average ticket price of $8.16. “People understand that there is a premium attached to it, with the technology and all the equipments added,” Roth says.

It’s expensive to build up a 4D theater. There are two different ways of building a 4D auditorium. One is building a 4D auditorium in a newly constructed multiplex, and the other is transforming an existing movie theater into 4D auditorium by renovation. CJ 4DPlex did the latter, the more costly one, to the one in L.A.. It took them about 3 months to install motion chairs and various equipments for environmental effects.

CJ Group told Los Angeles Times, “it costs about $2 million to design and outfit a 4-D theater, with exhibitors covering half the costs.” CJ Group also says circuits quickly recoup their investment because the theaters are so popular.

The 4D auditorium in Hollywood is not CJ Group’s debut. CJ started off its 4D journey home — it showed its first film with 4D effects “Journey to the Center of the Earth” in an 88-seat theater in Seoul in 2009.

With the introducing of 4D “Avatar” in 2010, CJ Group opened three more “4D Plexes” in South Korea. Matthew Patrick, a member of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, explains, “It’s such a trip to another world, so the magic of the world is already so great that this [4D effects] would just add to it.”

CJ’s 4DX is currently running 128 auditoriums in 28 countries worldwide, including Mexico, Korea, China, Russia, the U.S. and Japan. On average, 4D auditoriums generate 3 times as big as the box office revenue of 2D or 3D general formats. And the occupancy rate of 4D theaters is 10 to 30 percent higher than that of general auditoriums, Wahab says.

The South Korean company is not alone. In Australia, Merlin Entertainments runs a 4D cinema at the Sydney Tower Eye where people can have the views for real on the top of the observation deck during a short film that shows off the city’s sights.

An Indian shopping mall, Sector 4D Shopping Centre, installs an even more extreme effects in the cinema, with seats moving in all directions, including free-falling, vibrating and flight simulation.

Comparing with “Avatar” igniting the global excitement about 3D screens, — in 2010, the number of 3D screens installed more than doubled from 16,339 to 36,242, an increase of 121.8 percent — 4D theaters still have a long way to go.

4D movie theaters may need another “Avatar” to really thrive. “You gotta have the right movie, a great movie,” Patrick says.

Before going wide release in regular cinemas, 4D cinemas have been running at theme parks and amusement parks around the world for more than two decades. “Theme park is a great place for 4D, because everybody is looking for something different from regular cinemas, something adventurous,” Patrick says. When watching 4D “Shrek” at Universal Parks, moviegoers are shaken by moveable seats when Shrek is running, and sprayed with water mist in the face when Shrek is sneezing.

CJ Group insists it isn’t building theme park rides, and says its theaters offer a much richer movie experience, according to Los Angeles Times.

“People may pay for the shaking seats, the smells and the bubbles once or twice, but I don’t know whether people are willing to spend money to do it five times,” Patrick says.

3D used to be very painful to watch. “We didn’t expect that 3D was gonna become this big,” Patrick says. With the technology getting so much better, people don’t get the headaches as they used to and have a better experience with 3D screens and glasses. 3D films stopped scaring people away by the better technology.

Likewise, the 4D technology has to be improved to secure audience for the future. And it’s tough.

The shaking chairs have been seen even before the 4D movies at theme parks. That is the movie “The Tingler,” an American thriller film. It was more than 50 years ago when they made certain seats shake a little bit and certain people were screaming at the theaters. “They weren’t expecting it.” Nowadays people won’t be scared off by moveable seats, but how many times can they get excited because of it?

The smell is very tricky to be programmed into the movies because certain smell is too strong and unpleasant to people. And fog is hated by most directors, says Patrick. It takes a long time to get rid of fog. There are two kinds of fog can be used in a 4D auditorium — one is very low on the ground, and the other is spreading everywhere. Fog spreading everywhere may make the screen darker, however, filmmaker are always trying to make the images as bright as possible.

Often times, 4D films come a little bit later than 2D or 3D films and normally it takes at least 16 days for 4D editing. It can be a problem — people want to see the film in the first two weeks and they don’t care to see the 4D version after all the excitement is gone.

The way to solve the “lag problem” is to cooperate with local studios to launch a film with 4D for the first time in the country. CJ 4DPlex has tried once. It invited the director Alponso Cuaron and had “4DX premiere” with ‘Gravity’ in Morelia, Mexico in 2013.

“The movie theaters did 3D to try to fight with television, and now they are having the same problem — they are raising the ticket prices but they are not getting more people into the theaters,” says Patrick. The cinema with a new dimension burns with an ambition to reverse the longtime decline in cinema attendance in the U.S..

But a whiff or a strobe light doesn’t make a great movie that attracts millions of people to the theaters. “You have to have really good stories that people want to see in the big screen — stories always come first, in stead of the format.”

Who’s In The Market For Pickup?

After sitting in the Annenberg lobby for 30 minutes trying to muster up the courage to talk to the girl sitting next to television wall; she suddenly gathers her belongings, places them into her backpack and walks out the door. This is the third time this happened this month. Where do you turn? Our parents never taught us about how to talk to girls. School only taught us algebra and English. Naturally, you turn to the first place you go to find any information, Google. “How do I talk to girls?” The first three results are wikihows…. alright that does not help at all. Who do you know that is the best with girls? Well Stan never seemed to have any issue with girls, but it would be embarrassing to ask him. Okay back to Google. “How to…pickup girls?” Wow all these websites look so creepy. Maybe YouTube? A guy picking up girls in a fat suit? No way! These Simple Pickup guys actually look pretty normal.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7PAYhmoKkA

This is the story of how several fans stumbled upon Simple Pickup’s YouTube channel. Bijan, the newest member of Simple Pickup team, explained in a personal interview that this is exactly how he found out about the YouTube personalities. There are many other pickup companies and YouTube channels that have come under fire for sexual harassment, however the guys at Simple Pickup have been able to set themselves apart from the negative coverage in the media.

Pickup has different meanings for different people. Google defines a pickup artist as a person who practices finding, attracting, and seducing sexual partners, usually women. There are many different individuals who claimed to have invented ‘pickup’ but the individuals that brought the subject into the public’s eye were Erik James Horvat-Markovic, also known as Mystery, and Neil Strauss, the author of “The Game: Penetrating the Secret Society of Pickup Artists.” Mystery hosted a reality competition on VH1 called “The Pickup Artist.” After watching the show many people went out to seek additional resources and Neil Strauss’ book became a New York Times best seller.

Simple Pickup is one of three companies that provide instructional videos and bootcamps for men across the world that are interested in learning how to pickup women.

Real Social Dynamics or RSD, consists of a group of guys that were featured in in Neil Strauss’ book, “The Game.”

Neil Strauss created a website selling his books and instructional videos called Stylelife.com.
Currently these three companies dominate the market of pickup.

The traditional business models of these companies is to sell instructional DVD’s, teach in person workshops with one on one instruction called bootcamps, and host seminars teaching pickup to their customers. These seminars typically consist of one pick up teacher that stands in front of about 30-40 men teaching what they know about the subject. The two other companies both bootcamps that cost about $2,000 to attend.

Let’s break down each company and the products they offer:

Real Social Dynamics
They have the biggest variety of coaches and host seminars and bootcamps all over the world. A majority of the coaches were students of Mystery and decided to band together to create a global scale business for teaching pickup to men all over the world. Their most infamous coach’s name is Julian Blanc who has recently come under fire for teaching sexual harassment to his students. The information they teach is extremely technical and dissects social interactions as a step of actions, almost like a video game. RSD is heavily theory based.

Seminar: $1,000 (3 days, a coach speaks in front of 20-30 students)
Bootcamp: $2,000 (3 to 1 in person instruction with live feed back)
DVD’s: $600 (Instructional videos that teach students the foundations of pickup)

RSD

Resource: http://www.realsocialdynamics.com

Style Life
Created by Neil Strauss the author of “The Game.” There is also a lot of theory involved but ultimately tries to teach a lifestyle. The entire mood of his website and the information he teaches has a James Bond like feel. The site looks a bit archaic because Neil Strauss has decided to focus more on his writing career. Though products and books are still on sale.

One hour coaching calls:$125 (ask the coaches any questions related to pickup)
DVD’s: $140 (Instructional videos that teach students the foundations of pickup)
8 CD: $40 each (Audio lessons from various pickup artists that are friends of Neil Strauss)
Bootcamps: $2,000 (In person coaching, 3 days)
Online program: $1,850 (Most recent product after Simple Pickup introduced Simple 30)

Style Life

Resource: http://web.stylelife.com

Simple Pickup
Simple Pickup approaches the business from different angle. They focus more on a lifestyle than the technicalities of pickup. Their products are dramatically less expensive than RSD and Style Life because they hope to reach a broader audience that discovered them through YouTube.

Project GO: $30 a month (a monthly subscription produces new content weekly for subscribers consisting of video, podcasts, and Q&A’s.)
Simple 30: $400 (an online bootcamp which Style Life models its online program after)
Simple Mixology: $20 (videos that teach you how to make 10 drinks for any situation)

Project Go

Resource: http://go.simplepickup.com/s4/?sess=3d13167a1f9f413e14aa23328274c69c

RSD and Style Life both teach theory heavy content that relies on formulas and rehearsed lines. Out of these three of these companies, Simple Pickup is by far the most successful and socially accepted company in the public. They have been featured on NBC news, Good Morning America, and several international stations, Simple Pickup has been able to establish themselves as a company that does more than simply teaching guys how to be successful with women. They strongly discourage the use rehearse lines because they feel that social interactions should have a natural flow and stem form a place of authenticity. Their ability to have fun and inject humor into any social situation they are in makes them unique. Kong the Chief Executive Officer explained to me in an interview that they “want to provide a unique experience of fun and valuable information at the same time, we like to call it info-tainment.” They are masters at consistently crafting viral videos on YouTube, and backing project that have more social significance than simply just pickup.

Jesse Jhaj, Kong Pham, and Jason Roberts, three friends that met at Cal State Fullerton, created Simple Pickup 2011 and have since created three life style products for their subscribers, Project GO, Simple 30, and Simple Mixology. Unlike their predecessors, they have an extremely successful YouTube channel. Before even creating a product that they could sell, they understood the importance of establishing an audience first. The biggest issues surrounding previous pickup companies is the lack of trust consumers have with the product. $2,000 dollars is a lot to gamble away on an individual that claims to be an expert in their field without any proof. Jesse, Kong, and Jason decided to release videos of them picking up girls in a fat suit, talking in the voice of Batman, and dressing up in Game of Thrones costumes. All of this effort proves consumers that not only are they able to do this normally, but they are also able to do it in the more ridiculous circumstances. If they can dress up this ridiculously confidence is the most important factor, not appearance. After establishing that sense of trust with their consumers, they launched Project GO.

Project GO is a monthly subscription-based product that comes with a new instructional video, podcast, and Q&A video every Monday. The subscription costs $30 per month and has changed the business model for the pickup community dramatically. With the introduction of online content, consumers from all over the world can access the content. In the past, the high cost of shipping internationally deterred buyers from buying products from RSD and Style Life. What Simple Pickup does extremely well is 2-way communication that they learned from YouTube. Commenting on a video allows for a conversation not only with the other subscribers, but with the content creators as well. Simple Pickup can produce content that their audience actually wants to see. In comparison to the other pickup companies, Simple Pickup is projected to generate the most revenue over time because Project Go is a subscription-based product. Amazon makes a substantial amount of money through their Amazon Prime subscription; Costco’s entire business model is centered on a yearly subscription membership. Costco does not make any money from selling items at bulk to customers but instead charges $55 for a yearly subscription. They have 50 million subscribers and generate two billion seven hundred fifty million dollars a year. Project GO stylistically looks a lot better than its competitors.

Screen Shot 2014-12-11 at 3.54.38 PM

Resource: http://go.simplepickup.com/s4/?sess=3d13167a1f9f413e14aa23328274c69c

The two main sources of revenue come from Project GO and bootcamps. As the company developed, Jesse, Kong and Jason realized that they did not have enough time to host bootcamps for their subscribers while the demand for them exponentially increased. In order to satiate the hunger of the consumers for bootcamps, they created Simple 30.

Screen Shot 2014-12-11 at 3.09.14 PM

Resource: http://go.simplepickup.com/s4/?sess=3d13167a1f9f413e14aa23328274c69c

Simple 30 is an online bootcamp costing $400 that is a substitute for an in person bootcamp. The drop in cost and online distribution of the product provides a more efficient business model and allows more individuals to experience the bootcamp at a lower price point. For 30 days, you receive a daily challenge that is demonstrated by the guys, after completing the challenge; you will have a reflective exercise that gauges what you did well and what you can do better. The main focus of Project GO and Simple 30 is not to have sex with as many girls as possibly, but rather develop the confidence through social interactions to be the best version of you. Their most recent product, Simple Mixology, teaches how to make 10 drinks fit for any situation. Simple Pickup’s goal is to become the #1 resource for men around the world. Since launching Simple 30, Style Life has introduced a master guide that includes video challenges and sheet that tracks your progress overtime. RSD is quickly trying to create a product that matches the content of Simple Pickup.

One of the biggest concerns between the three pickup companies is the leaking of content. They are selling how to’s and this kind of product is hard to protect. The information because infinitely harder to protect when it is put on the Internet because of online piracy. Both Style Life and RSD’s content have been leaked online but I could not find anything on Simple Pickup. When I asked them about it, office intern Matthew Tran answered, “we go through great lengths to try to defend against online piracy and honestly our stuff is priced so low that I believe people support us by actually buying the content. Our fan base is pretty loyal and loves to tune in every week to hear Jesse and Kong share their thoughts on the podcast. We also have posted two free project go videos on our YouTube channel as a free sample so people get to see what they are buying.” Similar to Itunes and Amazon, Simple Pickup has lowered the price enough to make buying Simple Mixology and Project GO much more reasonable than products from RSD and Style Life. However since United States is one of the leaders in piracy not only in music but several other forms of entertainment, online distributors of content must take necessary measures to combat this.

ChartOfTheDay_614_Music_downloads_via_BitTorrent_in_the_first_half_of_2012_n

Because they have crated light hearted and fun videos they have also brought in a larger consumer base, many people who do not know what pickup is will stumble upon their videos. Kong, Chief Executive Officer, explained that “[Simple Pickup] is the light hearted foundation people need to have when they start pickup. Once they are done learning from us then I suggest they learn from RSD but do remember to take their advice with a grain of salt. While they do teach some valuable stuff, some of it is crosses the line like the most recent incident with Julien Blanc.”

In the past three months, the scandal surrounding one of RSD’s coaches, Julien Blanc has tarnished the name of every company involved in pickup. Blanc was recorded in a seminar teaching his students to choke girls as a conversation starter in Japan because he claimed, “If you are white, you can get away with anything [in Asia].” The world broke out in rage. The United Kingdoms denied a visa application from Blanc, Australia canceled Blanc’s visa, and the Internet has petitioned to kick Blanc out of Brazil. The other pickup artists in this community have a tendency of objectifying and manipulating women. Simple Pickup teaches from day one that they frown upon any behavior that objectifies women. They have continually reinforced the idea their message of building confidence and leading a healthier social life, not objectifying and manipulating women. Most guys that are too afraid to approach women are typically nice guys that have amazing personalities but because of the lack of confidence, they are unable to share their personality with other people. Instead they cave under social pressure and are unable to live the social lives they would like to.

After interviewing the office intern from Simple Pickup, Matthew Tran revealed that there initially was a slight drop in subscribers on YouTube and Project GO after the Blanc incident. While not intentionally timed to combat the negative press, they released a Tinder experiment video with two of their friends dressed up in fat suits. Their friends Willy Beck and Sarah Smith set up dates with unknowing individuals on Tinder and showed up to the date in a fat suit. The video with Sarah created more buzz online than Willy’s because of the difference in reaction across the sexes. Four out of five of Sarah’s dates decided to leave after seeing Sarah in person simple because she was overweight. Only one girl left after seeing Willy’s transformation. This Tinder experiment set Simple Pickup apart from the various other prank channels and pickup companies because they understand the double standard that is present in the dating world and wanted to bring the subject to the forefront of conversation with one of the most popular dating apps used today. Many individuals on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram have commended Simple Pickup on the success of their video. After this video released, they experienced a spike in subscribers seen on this graph:

SP Graph

Resource: http://channelgraphs.com/channel/SimplePickup/graphs

Simple Pickup continues to evolve the taboo and socially sensitive topic of pickup through their website and YouTube channel. Simple Pickup launches a new project every three months, either a product, informational public service announcement, or hilarious public image campaign, all of which continually reinforces them as a unique pickup company that teaches a healthy life style. Almost every single man deals with approach anxiety and their product is lesson in social interactions that men have never been taught.

Check them out at
https://www.youtube.com/user/SimplePickup
Project GO

Just when ports need them the most, truckers flee the industry

Ricardo Ceja keeps detailed records of his payments. | Daina Beth Solomon

Ricardo Ceja keeps detailed records of his payments. | Daina Beth Solomon

Ricardo Ceja scowled as he flipped through recent paystubs for his job trucking cargo to and from the Port of Los Angeles. His October salary is $1,680, but his employer cut more than a third for costs like truck repairs, and won’t reimburse him for several hundred dollars spent on fuel.

The total amounts to much less than what Ceja expected to earn when he took on the job several years ago, and he sympathizes with many fellow truckers who have fled the industry seeking better wages.

“They pay me every week, but they deduct whatever they want,” he said on a recent afternoon at his Lawndale apartment. “They throw you a bone with a string.” [Read more…]

Apple Pay Might Enter Chinese Market by Partnering with AliPay

At the beginning of November, Ma Yun, the founder and Executive Chairman of Alibaba Group, and Tim Cook, CEO of Apple Inc, have both teased a possible “marriage” between AliPay and Apple Pay in 2 separate talks at the Wall Street Journal Digital conference. Since then, speculation went that Apple Pay would open the Chinese market by cooperating with AliPay. A few days later, on November 11, Cai Chongxin, CFO of Alibaba Group, announced that negotiation between Apple Pay and AliPay is going on smoothly, and it’s very likely that Apple Pay will be introduced to China soon, with integration with AliPay.[1]

But why does Apple Pay partner with AliPay? What are the benefits of their partnership, and what are the problems they might have to face? This article will first explain what Apple Pay and AliPay are, and how they function. Then it’ll take a look at the current payment system in China, and Apple Pay and AliPay’s positions in it, to give a general idea about what’s every party’s job in the payment system. Finally, the article will dissect the competing forces within the system, in order to analyze what benefits and setbacks the “battle” will bring to Apple Pay and AliPay’s cooperation.

  • What Are Apple Pay and AliPay?

When I first heard the news about the possible cooperation between Apple Pay and AliPay, the questions that popped up in my mind immediately were: What are they? What are the differences between them? Shouldn’t they be competing with each other if they function similarly?

2

Snapshots of AliPay’s user interface.

AliPay is a third-party online finance platform, which is available in almost all smartphones. Users can link their cards to their personal accounts and make purchases online. However, instead of being merely an online payment platform like PayPal, AliPay offers financing services as well. Users can transfer money, pay their fees, ask for a small loan, process investments, or even make a donation on it. In other word, AliPay is similar to an online banking system – even more than that.

applepaytouchid

Apple Pay in iPhones.

Resource: http://cdn.macrumors.com/article-new/2014/09/applepaytouchid.jpg

Apple Pay is more like a digital wallet. It provides a mobile payment service which employs Near Field Communication (“NFC”), a set of standards that allow smartphones and similar devices to realize radio communication when touched or brought into proximity, typically 10 cm or less[2]. Users only need to input their card numbers into their iPhone 6/6+ to put the cards into their “wallet.” Before using Apple Pay, they will have to identify themselves by Touch ID, a fingerprint identification system. Then, users just need to get their phones closer to the payment terminals to finish a transaction, and they can finish this step without Internet. Apple Pay now generates 0.15% transaction fees from banks, but the rate is still being negotiated. Apple won’t remember any card information, and it won’t give away any statistics about the transaction to merchants either. In other word, Apple Pay is completely a third party. It only provides the technology to integrate payment methods, and it’s not involved in settlement process between consumers, banks, and merchants. It functions like Outlook: Users can link different email accounts to it, and Microsoft doesn’t care if they’re using gmail or hotmail.

Therefore, if Apple Pay cooperated with AliPay, the way they worked together would be that users could add an AliPay account into Apple Pay, and they’d be able to use the money in their AliPay account via Apple Pay,

  • The Chinese Payment Eco-System

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Payment system can be divided into two parts: online and offline. Offline payment system in China is a closed loop consists of consumers, merchants (including retailors, which will be talked about at the end of the article), and banks, and no other party has been able to successfully intervene the process or take another place in it so far.

The structure of the online payment environment is more complicated. In order to understand how it works, it’s important to understand the functions of the government-backed group – UnionPay.

China UnionPay is an industry association founded in Shanghai in 2002, and was sanctioned by People’s Bank of China – the Chinese Federal Reserve. It has brought 18 Card Information Exchange Centers – which used to be non-profit organizations located in 18 different cities all over China – together, and is originally mainly  responsible for establishing and operating a national inter-bank information exchange network. For example, people could only make a withdrawal from an ATM machine from Bank of China if they were using a card issued by Bank of China. But now, they can withdraw money from any ATM machine with a UnionPay sign on it, since Bank of China is a member of UnionPay. In other word, UnionPay is a platform closely related to the government, and it holds banks together and thus can represent most of them.

1Resource: http://pic.iresearch.cn/zt/201306/0066@67468.gif

After understanding what UnionPay is, let’s go back and take a look at the online payment system. Online payment service is mainly provided by three types of platforms. The first is online money management platforms, which are led by AliPay. The second is UnionPay, which stands for most banks. Finally, social media based online payment service is now growing by utilizing its huge user base to earn a piece of the pie. However, the most important two are still the third party payment platforms and the bank system. Statistics show that in the first quarter of 2013, more than 87.7% of online transactions were done on the third party payment platform, more than half of which was contributed by AliPay. UnionPay took up 10.5% of the market, and the rest only 1.9%.

AliPay is definitely the bellwether of the whole online payment system. UnionPay is basically monopolizing offline payment, and is trying to gradually take a place in the online payment environment. These two are the most major forces in the current payment system in China. If Apple Pay steps in in the future, it’ll be a third party which not only is able to integrate all payment methods together, but also it’ll help online payment service providers open the door of offline payment system. Obviously, this will bring huge impact to the existing payment eco-system in China.

  • The Bright Side of Apple Pay’s to Cooperate with AliPay

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Numbers about AliPay that are good for Apple Pay.

In order to understand why Apple Pay and AliPay intends to work together, let’s first take a look at what benefits their cooperation may bring to both parties. The first benefit for Apple is that if it can successfully partner with AliPay, it’ll be a great opportunity for it to open the Chinese market and make a huge profit. Up to the Chinese New Year in 2014 (at the beginning of February this year), the number of AliPay users had reached nearly 300 million[3]. In 2013, there were more than 2.78 billion transactions happened on AliPay. Its annual transaction volume last year broke 900 billion RMB (around $150 billion), and has become the biggest mobile payment platform in the world. To be more specific, as is shown above, the second biggest mobile payment company – PayPal’s transaction volume in 2013 was about $20 billion[4]. If Apple Pay partners with AliPay, ideally, it may attain more than 1/5 of all Chinese to become its users, and according to its current transaction rate, which is 0.15%, generates millions annual revenue.

2

Resource: http://www.guopu.cc/hysd/2014/08/29/8b436ecb-54fa-4808-8001-7451678dace1.htm

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AliPay users can pay taxi fees by simply launching the AliPay app and using the camera to scan the QR (Quick Response) code, the square matrix barcode in the picture.

Resource: http://www.hb.xinhuanet.com/2014-03/16/c_119787896.htm

As for AliPay, its biggest win in the cooperation will be that Apple Pay can bring its business to the offline environment. According to the Chinese E-Commerce Research Center, in the first half-year of 2014, total sales online has reached 185.6 billion RMB (about $30.5 billion), but it’s only 8.7% of total retails sales of consumer goods[5]. The offline market is way bigger than the online one, and that’s why AliPay has been trying to penetrate this market, though it’s already the big shot in the online environment. AliPay’s current major attempt to go offline is “pay by QR code,” which means that users can simply pay by scanning a code using the AliPay app in their cell phones. However, this is not helping AliPay to go completely offline. One of the most obvious reasons is that users still need Internet environment to finish the transaction. For example, in the basement in a department store, where the service signal can be terrible, consumers might fail to pay by scanning the code, because their cell phones can’t connect to the Internet to transfer information. But if there’s Apple Pay, and AliPay becomes a “card” in the digital wallet, users will be able to pay offline, because Apple Pay employs NFC, which utilizes radio to complete transaction instead of the Internet. Therefore, cooperating with Apple Pay can definitely push AliPay further in the offline payment system.

  • Potential Problems Apple Pay and AliPay might face in the Cooperation

3

Resource: http://www.dailytech.com/iPhone+6+Helps+Apple+Regain+Market+Share+But+iPhone+6+Sales+are+Weak/article36954.htm

As mentioned, Apple Pay is only available in iPhone 6 and 6 Plus, and this is a critical problem awaiting Apple to solve. According to Kantar Group, a top mobile market research firm, iPhone market share “hit a low in June, 2014 of 12.8%,” but rebounded to 15.7% in October due to the launch of the iPhone 6/6+[6]. That is to say, even if every Chinese has a mobile phone, only less than 3% of them has can have access to Apple Pay. Even if all iPhone6/6+ users have installed AliPay on their phones, Apple Pay would only be able to utilize around 15% of AliPay’s user base. Of course, AliPay’s user base is still meaningful to Apple Pay even so, but low market penetration of iPhone 6/6+, and the fact that Apple Pay is now only available in the latest issued devices, can’t be ignored if Apple Pay really wants to stand firmly in the Chinese market.

How Apple Pay and AliPay will split interest is another problem. As mentioned, Apple Pay now profits mainly by charging banks for a 0.15% transaction fee. AliPay charges transaction fees from its partners to generate profit as well. For example, JD.com is the second biggest B2C e-commerce online platform in China[7]. AliPay used to be one of its possible payment methods, and JD.com paid 0.5% fees out of every transaction that happened on AliPay[8]. According to the two companies’ profit pattern, Apple Pay and AliPay will make money from every transaction that uses their services. However, if a Chinese consumer buys a $50 product, and he chooses to use AliPay via Apple Pay, the two companies will have to decide how much they will take respectively from the deal.

Speaking of splitting interest, UnionPay can’t be ignored, and conflicts do exist in the two companies – Apple Pay and AliPay – and UnionPay’s interest. As is mentioned, UnionPay is originally meant to be an information exchange hub for member banks. However, now it has become not only an integration platform, but also a supervisor of the bank system. According to the fifth clause of China UnionPay’s business scope, UnionPay can “set the regulations and standards for inter-bank transactions, and negotiate and arbitrate disputes in inter-bank business[9].”

Even more than that, UnionPay has been called a “monopoly empire” by some mainstream media in China[10], because it has become an organization that is not only pursuing profit, but is utilizing its relationship with the government to reinforce its hegemony in the offline payment system. For instance, banks usually charge restaurants 1.25% transaction fee when they use POS (point of sale) machine, and banks know it is a restaurant that is using the POS machine by MCC – Merchant Category Code. For example, “5812” represents restaurants, “5511” automobiles, and “5311” department stores. Since restaurants belong to entertainment category, its transaction fee is relatively high, and thus many restaurants don’t accept cards – this goes against UnionPay’s interest. Hence, in order to gain more market and ensure self-profit, UnionPay allocates MCC that belongs to other categories to restaurants. If UnionPay allocates “5311” – MCC for department stores – to restaurants, then the restaurants will need to pay only 0.78% transaction fee, which is 0.47% less than what it should be. In other word, UnionPay is no longer a neutral third party which is helping communication between banks, but it has already become a supervisor, even a tyrant who is making self-profit even at the costs of its citizens.

Third party payment platforms dominate most of the online payment market. Offline payment system has been shrinking[11], but it still accounts for significant share of total retail sales. Thus the current situation for UnionPay is that, it’s hard for it to expand its service online since competitors are too powerful, and so it’s endeavoring to protect its leading status in the offline payment market. Therefore, it’s easy to imagine that if Apple Pay and AliPay’s cooperation is going to introduce AliPay into the offline payment environment, UnionPay might utilize administrative measures to impede the process. Actually, UnionPay has already stopped AliPay’s first attempt to step in the offline payment market once. In 2012, AliPay announced that they were going to march into the cash on delivery (“COD”) market, and had worked with Shanghai Commercial Bank to produce 30 thousand POS machines to help the business. Traditionally, handling fees generated by transactions that go through on a POS machine will be divided into 3 parts: merchants take 70%, issuing banks 20%, and UnionPay 10%. However, AliPay’s working with the bank directly had bypassed UnionPay, and had denied it of the transaction fees it could originally make. So in July 2013, UnionPay’s board enacted a regulation that at the end of the year, all UionPay-cards-related offline transactions had to be transferred to UnionPay, and third party offline payment systems had to be incorporated into UnionPay’s clearing system. It meant AliPay would have to not only split up its profit from 10% transaction fee to UnionPay, but also publicize information about offline transactions to it. At the end, AliPay stopped its COD service. The reasons behind AliPay’s move were complicated, but as Xing Li, a reporter at Monkey Weekly said, “On one hand, it was a signal of anti-trust against UnionPay; on the other hand, AliPay was avoiding conflicts with UnionPay, because the offline payment service it had at that time wasn’t that big after all.[12]” AliPay didn’t want to front UnionPay, because UnionPay was politically powerful, and this is why it’s important for Apple Pay and AliPay to figure out if UnionPay is a friend or an enemy.

currentC

CurrentC is an MCX’s alternative to Apple Pay, which is employed by many huge retailors. Consumers need to launch the CurrentC app in their cell phones, and then use the camera to scan a QR code to pay, or the user can open the app and let the cashier scan the QR code that belongs to him/her to charge money. CurrentC doesn’t take transaction fees from retailors, and that’s why it’s considered one of the retailors’ attempts to kill Apple Pay and credit cards by building their own payment system[13].

Resource: http://venturebeat.com/2014/10/31/why-currentc-is-rightly-demanding-exclusivity-from-merchants/

Last but not least, except for competing forces within different payment service providers, a closely related “outsider” should be taken into consideration as well – the retailors. On one hand, retailors have been trying to get rid of transaction fees from consumers’ using credit cards, and thus they surely don’t want to be haunted by Apple Pay. Now, some leading retail merchants in the U.S., such as Wal-Mart, Rite Aid and CVS, adopt CurrentC, a mobile payment solution provided by MCX instead of Apple Pay, for the reason that they want to eliminate the 2% fee comes with purchases by credit card[14]. If Apple Pay wants to enter the Chinese market, it might have to face the same problem, no matter it’s going to cooperate with AliPay or not.

On the other hand, as mentioned, Apple Pay keeps payments anonymous, which means that retailors can lose valuable information about consumers: what they’re buying, returning, and what might interest them next – data-driven retail marketers won’t be able to stand this. We all know that Starbucks is an Apple-friendly brand[15], but still it shows hesitance in fully embracing Apple Pay. iPhone users are now bale to buy credits via the Starbucks mobile app by using Apple Pay, but there’s no exact timeline for when Apple Pay will be available at the cashier. As Joshua Brustein said in Apple Pay Is Too Anonymous for Some Retailers, “…Starbucks mostly see mobile payments as a way to insinuate itself deeper into its customers’ lives through loyalty programs.” It’s obvious that consumption statistics mean a lot to retailors, and so Apple Pay’s anonymity, which is why some people love it, can actually turn into an obstacle that Apple Pay has to overcome if it’s really going to partner with AliPay and enter the Chinese market.

 

Personally, I’m looking forward to Apple Pay’s partnering with AliPay. However, in order to ensure that the cooperation will work, both of the companies will need to think about potential problems within themselves, and possible conflicts between every party in the payment eco-system in China. But again, as a consumer and frequent AliPay user, I’m looking forward to the day when I can make a purchase offline by simply a touch of my mobile phone and the payment terminal, no matter using a card or my AliPay account, no matter there’s internet or not.

 

 

 

[1] http://wap.25pp.com/view/67286/

[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Near_field_communication

[3] http://ab.AliPay.com/i/dashiji.htm

[4] http://www.guancha.cn/economy/2014_02_17_206550.shtml

[5] http://www.guopu.cc/hysd/2014/08/29/8b436ecb-54fa-4808-8001-7451678dace1.htm

[6] http://www.dailytech.com/iPhone+6+Helps+Apple+Regain+Market+Share+But+iPhone+6+Sales+are+Weak/article36954.htm

[7] http://data.eguan.cn/dianzishangwu_172432.html

[8] http://m.zhihujingxuan.com/17325.html

[9] http://cn.unionpay.com/xiamen/col_84284/file_570818.html

[10] http://view.163.com/special/reviews/unionpay0317.html

[11] http://xqimg.imedao.com/149659cfe1df63fe16d2cf95.png

[12] http://business.sohu.com/20130909/n386188299.shtml

[13] http://techcrunch.com/2014/10/25/currentc/

[14] http://www.businessinsider.com/wal-mart-heres-why-we-dont-support-apple-pay-2014-10

[15] https://www.apple.com/pr/library/2007/09/05Apple-and-Starbucks-Announce-Music-Partnership.html

The Good, The Bad and The Ugly of Dodd-Frank

The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, passed in 2010, was the legislative response to the Great Recession. Although it imposed the most significant changes to our financial regulation system since the Great Depression, this 2,300-page piece of legislation will do precious little to fix the problems that caused our financial collapse, or to prevent the next economic crisis. Some provisions of the law contradict other laws, and many of the reforms that seemed necessary and sensible have been gutted because they either were impossibly strict or unwelcome by bankers and regulators. America simply is not ready to reconcile the “dream” of owning a home with the realities that reform necessitates.

The Good

In its infancy, Dodd-Frank had the potential to effect some much-needed change. The act was designed in part to incentivize banks to make less risky loans to homebuyers. The first way it did this was by incentivizing lenders to originate Qualified Mortgages (QM) and Qualified Residential Mortgages (QRM).

To qualify as a QM, the borrower must have a debt-to-income ratio below 43%; this means that the monthly mortgage payment cannot exceed 43% of the borrower’s monthly income. QMs don’t require a down payment, and prohibit many predatory lending practices we discussed, such as balloon payments and interest-only loans. Lenders must also verify the income and financial resources of the borrower.

A QRM is very similar to a QM, but involves stricter underwriting requirements. Originally borrowers were required to pay a 20% down payment and their monthly mortgage could not exceed 36% of their monthly income. These are the “safest” mortgages, because the borrower is much less likely to default if he meets those standards.

Dodd-Frank incentivizes lenders to make these “safer” loans primarily through the Risk Retention Rule, and the Ability to Repay Rule. The Risk Retention Rule does what you might expect it to do: it requires banks to retain 5% of the risk for any asset-backed security, say a mortgage-backed security. This forces lenders to retain some “skin in the game,” fixing some of the misaligned incentive structures. The rule also prohibits lenders from hedging this risk. Lenders want to avoid having risk on their books because the more risk they retain, the more reserve capital they must keep on hand that they can’t use to make more money. QRMs are exempted from this rule, however, making them a more appealing option for banks.

The Ability to Repay Rule requires that lenders make a “reasonable and good faith determination based on verified and documented information” that the borrower can repay the loan. A borrower’s credit history, current income, expected income, and debt-to-income ratio can all contribute to his ability to repay. While it’s baffling that Congress passed this requirement in 2010, it is nonetheless a step in the right direction. Lenders who fail to verify a borrower’s ability to repay can be held liable for damages if the mortgage forecloses. This significant change will force lenders to weigh the potential costs of multi-million or multi-billion dollar legal settlements against expected returns on a very risky mortgage. Both QMs and QRMs are exempted from this rule. Banks can thus avoid the liability if a borrower defaults by issuing sounder mortgages.

The Bad

For starters, legislators drafted Dodd-Frank in very broad terms, instead creating agencies, like the CFPB and others, to hash out the specifics of how the reforms should work. These details are probably important considering they pertain to an industry that deals with numbers and affects people around the globe. Better leave it to the experts then, right? Well, the U.S. had many “experts” and regulatory agencies in place in the build-up to the Great Recession too, but they didn’t do much to prevent the housing bubble, even when explicitly warned.

Further, key provisions in the Dodd-Frank bill that passed in 2010 were drastically changed or removed by the time parts of the law were finalized in 2014. Regulators have finalized and implemented a little more than 50% of the reforms proposed by Dodd-Frank four years after the act passed. They loosened QRM requirements, which originally required a 20% down payment and 36% debt-to-income ratio, to require no down payment and a 43% debt-to-income ratio because the lending industry argued the original requirement would make these loans impossible for most Americans to obtain. With a few exceptions, a QRM is functionally the same as QRM; yet QRMs remain exempt from the Risk Retention Rule while QMs do not.

Further, lenders of all home mortgages issued by the government are exempt from this rule. This includes mortgages originated by the FHA and those sold to Fannie and Freddie; this accounts for 85% of all home mortgages. Thus, banks in practice don’t retain any “skin in the game” for a majority of the mortgages in the market, but taxpayers do (again). Most of these mortgages do not qualify as QMs or QRMs either.

Here’s where things get ugly

With Dodd-Frank also cam a new interpretation of the 1968 Fair Housing Act. The law says lenders must show they make a good faith effort to serve borrowers outside of QM territory. They can be sued if their lending practices promote disparities or unequal treatment based on race, ethnicity gender or age, but previously we interpreted the law to imply lenders must intend to discriminate against borrowers. Dodd-Frank indicates that a potential litigant does not need to prove intent to hold a lender liable for creating a “disparate impact.” Lenders are unsure of how to reconcile QMs and showing ability to repay while avoiding any detectable disparate impact among borrowers. So while the law strongly incentivzes(ed) lenders to make safer loans, in a way it also punishes them for doing so. Industry officials asked HUD to clarify the law and its intent, and HUD politely declined. Apparently HUD officials felt the courts would be better equipped to do their job.

 Concluding thoughts

Americans might be doomed to housing crises for a long time to come as long as we hold on to the dream of owning a home. The reality is that not all people are qualified to get a mortgage. If questionable financials are not a good indicator, perhaps the fact that many borrowers didn’t bother to read the mortgage contract they signed is more telling. Homeownership certainly provides widespread economic benefits for our country. As long as our government plans to make homeownership a reality though, it must acknowledge the inherent risk of this policy and find a more practical way of protecting the public from it.

American Cable Network To Develope Web-TV Services and Expand Into International Markets

Tencent's Digital Media Marketing Department manager gives speech regarding the collaboration between HBO and Tencen Video (v.qq.com)

Tencent’s Digital Media Marketing Department manager gives speech regarding the collaboration between HBO and Tencen Video (v.qq.com)

Web-TV service, such as Netflix and Hulu Plus, is growing rapidly, which has forced pay-television network HBO to release its own online-streaming services and step further into Asian market: to distribute TV dramas and movies through the Chinese Internet giant’s online video.

Globally, different from Netflix that directly launches its service in foreign countries, HBO licenses its programming to Tencent, a famous investment holding company whose services include social network, mass media, e-commerce and online games.

Its new deal with Tencent hasn’t disclosed the financial details or broadcast schedules. According to Wall Street Journal, HBO’s international business accounts for about one-quarter of the company’s $4.9 billion in annual revenue. And last year, it added 10 million users overseas, which is twice as many as HBO and Cinemas added domestically in the past decade.

Nonetheless, customers outside of the U.S. pay much less money than Americans for HBO’s programs, which, in other words, the company doesn’t generate a lot of revenue from licensing its programming.

Besides, the Chinese government censorship and local competitors – Youku Tudou Inc. and some internet-pirate sites – still make people feel uncertain about HBO’s future in Chinese market. Bloomberg reporter Xin Zhou said that a pay-to-view channel run by China’s state broadcaster CCTV aired a cut version of “Game of Thrones.” To maintain the program quality and satisfy the viewers without provoking the government seem to require a longtime negotiation among different parties.

HBO Go: An online-streaming site that is only available in the U.S.

HBO Go: An online-streaming site that is only available for cable subscribers in the U.S.

Thus, as HBO is shifting its sights on international markets, it’s also ready to create a broadband-only service, which further disrupts the pay-television industry.

In the U.S., since it has to split the revenue with cable distributors, HBO finds it’s getting tougher to profit and dominate the market with current business model. Netflix charges subscribers $7.99 to $11.99 per month, while HBO charges $13 to $15 per month. Although Netflix’s total subscribers were not even half them of HBO, its subscriber revenue inched past that of HBO in the second quarter of 2014: $1.146 billion compared to $1.141 billion for HBO.

Also, HBO didn’t plan to offer its online services to non-pay-television subscribers until Time Warner Inc. CEO Jeffrey Bewkes announced on Oct 16, 2014 that HBO will offer its own online-streaming in 2015. This announcement immediately led TWX stock to soar 8.7 percent.

TWX stock soared 8.7% in just over 30 minutes

TWX stock soared 8.7% in just over 30 minutes

The online-streaming service will bypass the cable middleman and deliver the shows directly to the viewers. It aims to adding 10 million broadband-only users who consume video online.

HBO’s series of plans do provide an alternative for cable providers.

What does the 10-year visa for China mean to the Americans?

A policy change that will enable U.S. and Chinese citizens to visit each other’s countries repeatedly within 10 years has been announced at the conference of world leaders in Beijing; and it has been already gone into effect. Business and short-term visit visas, which used to expire after one year, will be valid for 1o years and allow a larger number of population travel back and forth between the U.S. and China.

In 2013, 1.8-million Chinese visitors came to the United States and brought an estimated $21.1 billion to the economy.  The Federal government predicts the economic impact of the loosened visa restrictions could be $85 billion by 2021, according a white house statement reported by the Los Angeles Times.

ChineseTouristinUSMajority of the media coverages focused on the economic spur the incoming Chinese tourists may bring to the States. Nevertheless, few wrote about the other side of the story: the policy change will also have an effect on the U.S. citizens’ visa for China. The new 10-year visas available to US passport holders will make travel to China easier for those who qualify.

A policy making process sometimes is the joint-consideration of both international relations and market demand. In the case of the 10-year valid visa, it seems like the policy shift may have something to do to with China’s inbound tourism industry. Unlike the large surplus on manufacturing, China’s tourism industry has been suffering deficit ever after 2009. The deficit pushed the local travel agencies and accommodation providers to price their service lower, sometimes even lower than the cost, to keep the business running.

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It may not be just a stereotype for Chinese to picture the U.S. visitor as spenders. According to a report from BBC, the travellers from the United States were actually the No.2 travel spenders in Asia, closely followed by Germans.

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At the same time, foreign tourists have slowed down their adventures in China. In the year of the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, the number of the foreign tourists in China reached its peak at 6.15 million. Since then, the number has been shrinking, though it did bounce up a little bit in the year of 2010. The United States of America-China Chamber of Commerce (USCCC) said in a statement that the relatively high standards for L visas are one reason Beijing has seen declining tourism numbers. Programs such as 72-hour, visa-free travel to Beijing have not been sufficiently easy or welcome to make the city attractive as a destination.

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The USCCC also clarified some requirements in order to obtain the new 10-year visa. In order to qualify for 10-year visas, US passport holders must have more than one-year validity remaining on their passport. And, each entry will only be good for 60 days.

“As international relations can change quickly without advanced notice, we urge you to take advantage of this new policy and apply for your China visa at your earliest convenience. In addition, if your passport expires in less than one year, we encourage you to consider renewing your passport,” said the USCCC in their website post.

It is uncertain, but worth expecting a growing number of tourists from the States coming to China for visits. As predicted by Huffington Post blogger Kathleen Peddicord, “the boom will bring more and more higher-end choices.”

However, according to Peddicord, “the biggest challenge to travel in this region is language”. It is normal that desk clerks in local small hotels, cab drivers, bus drivers, waiters, and sales speak no English at all. And it could remain a long-term challenge for the Chinese tourism industry to equip with the level of service to satisfy the international travellers.

When will China return?

Until 1800, China accounted for a third of world economy. In the 1880’s, the U.S. overtook China as the largest economy, a position China had for several hundreds of years. It looks like things will be returning back to “normal” in a generation’s time.

Chinese GDP growth

China’s growth record in the past 30 years has been incredibly remarkable, it enjoying a steady growth even during the Financial Crisis in 2008 and comprising 11 percent of global economic output in 2013. Robert Fogel, a Nobel winner in economics, forecasted in 2010 that Chinese total economic output would be $123 trillion in 2040, four times the U.S economy he predicted.

What makes China’s economy look so successful?

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The first essential factor would be Chinese government making huge investment in education. Well-educated workers will turn to be highly productive workers. In China, higher education are growing steeply due to enormous state investment. In 1998, only 3.4 million students were enrolled in China’s universities. The fast change was impressive: in 2002, enrollment in higher education increased 165 percent.

Second, Chinese officials may undervalue its economic progress. In service industry, small firms often don’t report their numbers to the government and statisticians always fail to translate improvements of services’ quality into economic progress. A simple example: Chinese hospitals’ registration fee has been remaining at an unaltered ¥10 for more than a decade.

Finally, China is undergoing consumerist tendencies. In Chinese mega cities, there is already a high standard of living. At the same time, a host of policies has been set to encourage Chinese consumers’ appetite.

Everything seems to go well in China. Are there elements hindering its economic development?

“Why will growth slow? Mainly, because that is what rapid growth does.” Episodes of super-rapid growth (>6 percent) are inclined to be extremely short-lived. The median duration of a super-rapid growth episode is nine years. There are only two economies close to China’s current duration — Taiwan and Korea.

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During the late 1980’s, it was widely believed that Japanese-style industrial policy, Japanese emphasis on corporate linkages and high levels of investment were keys to rapid growth. At an even broader level, it was widely believed in the early 1960’s that the Soviet Union would quite likely outstrip the United States economically.

But those forecasts were never lucky enough to be realized.

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Will China be an exception? According to a prediction by The Economist, even under a moderate GDP growth rate of two percent, China will surpass the United States in 2029. Apparently, it is destined that China will lead the global economy in stead of the U.S. in few decades.

Then what will happen if China’s economy exceeds the size of America’s? Why does China’s return even matter?

A bigger economy will certainly give China global commercial domination. Fluctuations in China’s domestic demand will send ripples around the world. Market surveys will focus on China first. Leadership of international institutions will shift toward China as well. This movement includes the equivalents at that time of the United Nations, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and regional development banks, etc. A more visible shift would be various headquarters moving to Beijing or Shanghai.

Geopolitically, it will necessarily alter the preeminent position that the U.S. has enjoyed since the end of the Cold War, and that Western nations have enjoyed since the 19th century.

Raising the age limit doesn’t make cents for the NBA

NBA commissioner Adam Silver wants to increase the NBA's age limit -- even though it seems to be financially unsound

NBA commissioner Adam Silver wants to increase the NBA’s age limit — even though it seems to be financially unsound

NBA commissioner Adam Silver recently reiterated his goal of raising the league’s draft eligibility from the age of 19 to 20 in the next collective bargaining agreement.

For several reasons, this doesn’t make economic sense for the NBA, and it escapes me why the commissioner would push for such a resolution.

The current rules force high-profile players to attend college for a minimum of one season — or in rare cases like Brandon Jennings, play in Europe for a year — before qualifying for the draft.

This has lead to an influx of talent for the NCAA that wasn’t seen before the age limit was put in place in 2006. Stars like Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, and LeBron James were able to skip playing in college because NBA teams were willing to bet on their talent and pay them immediately.

The NBA age limit allows the NCAA to bolster its ratings with freshman phenoms like Andrew Wiggins

Proponents of the age limit will also point to notorious preps-to-pros flops like Kwame Brown as a reason athletes need to attend college to “grow” as people and players — while also arguing the incubation of talented players in college helps make them more marketable once they become professionals.

It’s flawed logic, even if it were true, because it results in the NBA propping up a direct competitor. ESPN scored their highest college basketball ratings in the network’s history last year, with 1.4 million viewers tuning in on average. Their ratings have increased six percent each of the past two seasons.

The NBA shouldn’t view this as a positive. Unlike in football, professional and college basketball are played on the same nights. They’re competing for the same viewers, and the NBA shouldn’t do anything to influence that finite market to watch a different product.

And yet, that’s what the NBA age limit does. Last year’s NCAA ratings increased because of a well documented collection of high school seniors like Jabari Parker and Andrew Wiggins going to college for one season. If NBA teams were allowed to draft them instead, there would have been much less incentive for basketball fans to tune in for random college games on ESPN during the year.

At the same time, the NBA saw its ratings slide five percent last season. The Finals rematch between the Spurs and Heat featured the most high profile American athlete, and ratings still fell one point.

NBA ratings dropped five percent last season -- and the Finals were no different

NBA ratings dropped five percent last season — and the Finals were no different

The age restriction runs counter-intuitive to what the league’s goals should be: to collect the greatest amount of talent, put out the best product, and give consumers every reason to watch professional basketball rather than college.

As we discussed in class, sporting events carry more cache to advertisers now because they are live, making it more likely their ads will be watched. The increase in college ratings is more money in the NCAA’s coffers, and the NBA would be best served having curious fans tune into their product to see how the young players will fare.

Sports are one of the last effective spots for TV advertisers to bet on

Sports are one of the last effective spots for TV advertisers to bet on

It would behove the NBA financially to consider removing their age restriction entirely, rather than increasing it.