Economic indicators give analysts clues to how future trends will likely behave. For example, a drop in purchases of diamond-based jewelry may imply that fewer Americans have the means to spend on luxury items. Similarly, employment indicators offer economists signs of employment indicators could go either way and they don’t have to be tied to a recession relief; an increase in employment suggests a rise in consumer spending.
“But what about the beans?” no one but a legume connoisseur asked.
Among one of the more unusual economic indicators, no comma are baked beans and similar canned food items. The Baked Beans Index refers to a rise in consumer spending on canned goods. This suggests that the population turns to the salty alternative out of necessity, not preference. In times where fresh fruit and organic vegetables would be a luxury, such as recessions, baked beans allow for a filling meal for the common folk.
A look at the canned food industry suggests that, save for a dip in sales in 2016, there would have been slow but steady growth. The drop in canned goods purchases could be attributed to the after-effects of the Great Recession. Though the last major recession took place between the years of 2007-2009, the economy itself took time to stabilize.
Additionally, though the poorest people in the USA didn’t have far to fall when it came to the quality of life, the middle and upper classes were affected the most. According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, “real GDP fell $650 billion (4.3%) and did not recover its $15 trillion pre-recession level until Q3 2011.”
Most notably, unemployment rose to its highest at 10.0% in October 2009, and did not return to its pre-recession level of 4.7% until May 2016. Due to employment rates normalizing in 2016, it could be assumed people were making enough to be able to spend on “luxuries” like fresh food and veggies. Thus canned goods sales dropped dramatically. The spike in revenue growth for the fruit and vegetable processing industry shown in 2017 could be attributed to the settling normalcy of the job market.
The above graph displays the fruit & vegetable markets in the USA, within the same time period as the first chart. The 3.19% decrease in canned fruits/vegetable sales corresponds with the revenue growth for fresh goods. In fact, market research firm IBIS World indicates that there was a 1.2% increase in fresh vegetable consumption in 2016. To put that into perspective, people in the US on average ate 640.29 lbs of fresh vegetables in 2016; people, by comparison, ate an average of 633.31 lbs of fresh vegetables in 2015.
So take note: next time you buy fresh fruit over canned, be sure to savor it before another recession.