From gasoline to electric

Last week the world saw yet another one of Tesla’s creations, the Cybertruck. This electric pickup truck that looks like a prop from a futuristic science-fiction film can accelerate from 0 to 60 mph in 2.9 seconds and boasts a driving range of up to 500 miles. Besides its peculiar design, it’s hardly a surprise for an electric vehicle to surpass some gasoline cars in performance and price nowadays. That wasn’t the case a couple of decades ago. 

In the early 1900s, the first electrically powered cars gained quite a bit of popularity in the United States, especially in urban settings. However, the popularity was short-lived and as gasoline cars became cheaper the electric vehicle market became extinct and remained that way until the 21stcentury. Although there were several attempts to revive the electric cars market, it wasn’t until 2008 that electric vehicles started gaining a new momentum. Tesla Motors, headed by Elon Musk, has made the necessary leap into the EV market and introduced its first model, the Roadster, that was praised for an unprecedented performance and charge range at the time it was released. With a price tag of over $100,000, it has established itself as a luxury car brand and spurred the automaking competition. Over the years the cars have become cheaper, more convenient, and the infrastructure has begun adapting to satisfy consumer demand however, the infrastructure currently poses barriers for entry in some regions. 

Since Tesla unveiled Roadster the EV industry has grown tremendously. Just in the U.S., the number of electric cars on roads has grown from barely a dozen thousand in 2011 to over 1.1 million cars in 2019. The following chart demonstrates a steady increase in electric cars in the U.S. 

The promising growth of the EV industry and attractive car options have extended the market from the U.S. to an entire world. In fact, the sales of electric cars in the U.S. accounted for only 17% of global EV sales in 2018 with the most lucrative market in China. 

Tesla still leads the industry in terms of sales even outselling established luxury gasoline-powered car brands such as BMW in the United States. However, other brands such as General Motors, Nissan, Ford, Volkswagen, and BMW are not lagging behind in expanding their EV fleet. Volkswagen is spending billions of dollars to reshape its factories for electric car production. The company has already revealed its first electric car model, ID. 3 1ST, which will start deliveries in 2020. It will offer free battery charging for a year and the cost of the vehicle will be less than $45,000. Additionally, according to CNN Business, Volkswagen Group, which owns luxury car brands such as Porsche and Lamborghini, will spend $34 billion over the next half a decade to develop an electric or hybrid model of every car currently in production. Given that Volkswagen and other established brands have an advantage over Tesla in terms of revenue, these companies will put up a significant competition to it.

Although the electric vehicle industry is widely discussed, especially given the climatic circumstances and policies all over the world, gasoline cars are far in advance. It is estimated that non-electric passenger vehicles sales in 2018 exceeded 85 million units worldwide while electric vehicles only sold 2 million units. Furthermore, it is projected that electric passenger cars will outnumber gasoline-powered cars only in 2038. As for now, we can expect significant retrofitting of the automotive industry for the next two decades and predominantly more expensive EV models in the near future. 

Sources:

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2019/08/business/electric-cars-audi-volkswagen-tesla/

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/09/business/volkswagen-id-electric-car-reservation/index.html

https://www.britannica.com/topic/Tesla-Motors

https://www.energy.gov/articles/history-electric-car

https://qz.com/1618775/by-2038-sales-of-electric-cars-to-overtake-fossil-fuel-ones/

https://www.eei.org/issuesandpolicy/electrictransportation/Documents/FINAL_EV_Sales_Update_April2019.pdf

https://www.tesla.com/cybertruck

U.S. Electric​ cars are becoming cheaper – but with new threats and challenges

Considering buying an electric car? Now might be a good time. The sales of electric vehicles (EV) are increasing both globally and nationwide – and the prices are going down year by year. 

Globally, the market for electric vehicles has grown rapidly over the years. In California, even while sales of cars have fallen in the state through the first half of 2019, sales of electric cars have soared from 3.3 percent of the market in 2018 to 5.6 percent in 2019.

There are a steady increase and a spike in the import price of electric motors, which are essential for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. According to the observatory of economic complexity, the top exporters of Electric Motors are China ($12.9B), and the top importers are the United States ($9.6B). With the ongoing trade war between China and the United States, the import price of electric motors would likely go up for a while, adding to the producer price index (PPI) of electric cars made in the U.S. 

Import Price Index (Harmonized System): Electric motors and generators (excludes generating sets)

However, the median electric car in the U.S. is getting cheaper. Monopolizing the U.S. electric car industry, Tesla could release cheaper median EV models due to the maturity of the technology and the shrinking of EV battery prices. 

The decreasing battery price in the U.S. reflects a larger picture in the global battery market. The leading factors? Cobalt and lithium, two major components of the electric car battery – are becoming cheaper and cheaper.

Lithium experienced dramatic price movements, rapid demand growth, and supply deficit for refined products in recent years. However, prices are expected to fall in 2019 and after.

Lithium’s price is expected to fall in 2019 and after.

The cobalt industry also experienced a huge price surge in 2017 due to the growing sales of electric cars. It hit a 10-year peak of more than $40 a pound in April 2018 and fell back to $13 a pound in March in 2019. And its price is expected to continue to drop.

Cobalt’s price is expected to continue to drop.

According to Henry Sanderson from Financial Times, the dramatic rise in prices in 2017 was driven in part by stockpiling in China. This year, much of that inventory has come on to the market, pushing down prices. 

With the continuous slide of prices for these raw materials, it is possible that the suppliers may cut their supply until the prices go up to their expected level. But in the short-term, the shrinking cost battery will further push down the electric car price tags. 

However, considering China’s grip on the lithium needed for batteries – a single Chinese company has “effective control over nearly half the current global production of lithium” –  the trade war could greatly hurt American batteries and the electric car industry. Same for the cobalt. China was the world’s leading producer of refined cobalt and a leading supplier of cobalt imports to the United States. Unless Tesla comes up with new technology to reduce cobalt usage in its car battery, the U.S.-China tension will not help the U.S. electric car industry. 

Meanwhile, China seems to be benefiting more from the price drop of cobalt and lithium. Because China, not Tesla, is driving the electric-car revolution globally.

Since the beginning of the EV project in the early 21st century, the Chinese government has been backing up the industry by spending billions of dollars to subsidize manufacturing of electric vehicles and batteries and encouraging consumption. By 2015, electric vehicle sales in China had surpassed U.S. levels. In 2018, Chinese sales topped 1.1 million cars, more than 55% of all electric vehicles sold in the world.

Moreover, China has been aiming at the American market and challenging Tesla by introducing Chinese electric cars to the U.S. So far they have been largely successful until yesterday when Nio, a Shanghai-based Tesla-challenger, faced consecutive huge losses under the government-backed bursting bubble

To help the industry stand on its own and avoid a bubble, China has gradually scaled back subsidies since 2017 and is phasing out the subsidy program by the end of 2020. While it seems to lead to a hard time for Nio, it is unknown how much impact this decision will have on the overall Chinese EV industry.

Another potential backfire resides in resource and sustainability. The huge market for electric cars fuels the expanding demand for these raw materials – and the market (so does the demand) seems to be expanding exponentially. However, there is a limited amount of minerals on earth. Especially for cobalt, most of which came from Congo, exhaustion is predictable under such avaricious exploitation. Additionally, the illegal use of child labor, the contaminated environment, and the threatened human rights for Congolese add to the complexity of the issue. If the unlimited desire exceeds the limited amount of resources someday, we will likely face another mineral resource crisis.







Reference:

“After US$5 Billion in Losses, China’s Tesla Fights to Survive.” South China Morning Post, 23 Sept. 2019, https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3029968/after-us5-billion-losses-chinas-tesla-challenger-nio-fights-survive.

Clemente, Jude. “Trade War With China Exposes U.S. Mineral Import Problem.” Forbes, Forbes Magazine, 11 July 2018, https://www.forbes.com/sites/judeclemente/2018/07/11/trade-war-with-china-exposes-u-s-mineral-import-problem/#be6c9cb21044.

“Cobalt.” OEC, https://oec.world/en/profile/hs92/8105/.

“Cobalt.” Cobalt | 2019 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast | News, https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/cobalt.

Coren, Michael J. “The Median Electric Car in the US Is Getting Cheaper.” Quartz, Quartz, 6 Sept. 2019, https://qz.com/1695602/the-average-electric-vehicle-is-getting-cheaper-in-the-us/#targetText=The median electric car in the US is getting cheaper&targetText=Data analyzed by research house,price of $38,990 before incentives.

Evarts, Eric C. “Electric Car Sales Boom in California, as Plug-in Hybrids and Small Cars Sputter.” Green Car Reports, 4 Sept. 2019, https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1124891_electric-car-sales-boom-in-california-as-plug-in-hybrids-and-small-cars-sputter.

“Expanding Electric-Vehicle Adoption despite Early Growing Pains.” McKinsey & Company, https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/expanding-electric-vehicle-adoption-despite-early-growing-pains#targetText=What is the Electric Vehicle,plug-in hybrid EVs).

“Import Price Index (Harmonized System): Electric Motors and Generators (Excludes Generating Sets).” FRED, 13 Sept. 2019, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IP8501.

“Lithium.” Lithium | 2019 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast | News, https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lithium.

“US EV Sales Surpass 2% In 2018 – 9 EV Sales Charts.” CleanTechnica, 13 Jan. 2019, https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/12/us-ev-sales-surpass-2-for-2018-8-more-sales-charts/.