The prisoner’s dilemma: how conflicting incentives make healthcare worse

A healthcare provider, an insurance payer, and a patient all walk into a bar. You already know how well this is going to go.

National Health Expenditure; that is, the amount the United States spends on healthcare each year, was $3.3 trillion dollars in 2016. That’s $10,348 per capita or 17.9% of GDP. The OECD average in the same year was $4,003 per capita or 9% of GDP.

We have a dataset showing that we spend more, disproportionately more, on healthcare services than our fellow OECD members; that’s clear. But spending money is not inherently bad. But in exchange for these expenditures, nearly $6,000 more per capita, we must expect superior results. We must expect our citizens to have less chronic disease, higher life expectancy, and lower infant mortality rates, but we do not see that realized. The Wall Street Journal published the following infographic in July, illustrating the failure of the American healthcare system in comparison to our fellow economically-developed nations.

 

This story, the story of why it is happening and how it can change is excessively complex, and conversations on all chapters of this story deserve to be had and heard. I’m going to discuss one element of this story, one that I believe sheds the most light on what is actually going on in our system—the payer-provider relationship that makes the patient, the payer, and the provider all worse off.

There are three main players in this game, the three walking into a bar—provider, payer, patient. What does each player want?

The patient wants to get treated, treated well, and treated well at a good price.

The payer (also known as the insurance company) wants to provide care at the cheapest level of care possible that will meet the patient’s minimum requirements.

The provider wants to treat the patient at the highest cost while maintaining exclusive relationships with the payers. The insurance companies are ultimately the ones to pay the bills.

The payer-provide relationship is a complex one to say the least. Let’s look at it through the lens of Mr. Edward Winchell. Mr. Winchell is a 65-year-old, California resident who was admitted to Mercy San Juan’s hospital facility for a right hip fracture in 2014—he had fallen down. Throughout his time at the hospital, Mr. Winchell began suffering from symptoms of C. difficile, or inflammation of the colon that can cause severe colon damage or even death. According to the public record complaint filed on Mr. Winchell’s behalf, Mercy San Juan attempted to discharge and relocate him to a skilled nursing facility once his Medicare coverage was due to expire; however, the hospital “consciously or reckless[ly] chose to omit the fact that Mr. Winchell had C. difficile from his records,” knowing that such a condition would make him an undesirable candidate for another facility—he was deemed too expensive to care for. “Mr. Winchell was unsafely discharged” to a skilled nursing facility with no knowledge of his presenting symptoms. This is a phenomenon called “patient dumping” where providers will essentially pawn off patients that are too expensive, or for whom their insurers won’t pay, to lower, cheaper care facilities. The end of the story? Mr. Winchell’s colon was removed and will be forced to use a colostomy bag for the remainder of his life.

This story is both devastating and disheartening, but let’s look at it from a business perspective. The hospital, Mercy San Juan, had an expensive patient. The insurance provider was nearing the end of its contractual agreement to pay and was refusing to pay any more. The hospital could not deliver care at a cheaper rate, but a skilled nursing facility could. Therefore, the logical option for the hospital is to transfer the patient to that cheaper facility. This cheaper facility also ends up delivering a lower level of care, precisely the opposite of what Mr. Winchell actually needed to be discharged more quickly and more safely.

Health care is an industry, though often forgotten, an industry with a vibrant economy. Each firm is competing against the other in an attempt to claim profits, just as firms in the automobile or CPG industry do. The only difference is the extreme amount of influence that the suppliers—in this case, insurance companies—command over the firms.

So what are the consequence of this payer-provider relationship, of this patient dumping, of this subprime care?

To examine these consequences, hospital readmission rates become a useful tool. Theoretically, if a patient is treated with poor levels of care before being discharged, they will have to return to the hospital again in order to receive the care they originally needed. This scenario is illustrated by hospital readmission rates. Though data are severely disjointed, one study published in the AAP Journal examining this rate among children with chronic complex conditions (CCCs) reveals that, among children with 1 or more CCC, 19% had at least 1 readmission within 30 days of discharge. In patients taking 8 or more medications, that number was 29%.

In 2011, The New Yorker ran a story following doctor Jeremy Brenner playing around with data in a New Jersey town. Brenner “found that between January of 2002 and June of 2008 some nine hundred people in […] two buildings accounted for more than four thousand hospital visits and about two hundred million dollars in health-care bills. One patient had three hundred and twenty-four admissions in five years. The most expensive patient cost insurers $3.5 million.”

Another wide-spread analysis found that 14.4% of 12.5 million discharged patients were readmitted. These readmissions resulted in annual costs of $50.7 billion.

Of these hospital readmissions, 26.9% are considered potentially preventable.

These hospital readmissions are discouraging and costly, but they also represent an impossible relationship between provider and payer. Due to pressures from insurance companies, hospitals are financially pressured into discharging, often prematurely, patients such as Mr. Winchell in order to cut costs down for the payer. Insurance companies, you recall, want the patient discharged as quickly as possible in order to cut down costs. However, when these patients are forced to return to the hospital to receive adequate levels of care, like those 26.9% are, these hospitals are hit with large fines (3% of total Medicare payments in 2015). This puts the providers in the ultimate Catch-22. Do they discharge the patients and risk readmission penalties or keep the patient longer despite the provider’s refusal to pay, which will naturally eat into the hospital’s bottom line and destroy relationships with insurance companies?

Herein lies the prisoner’s dilemma: with incomplete information, neither payer nor provider knows how to best treat a patient at the lowest cost. As a result, the dominant strategy for the payer will always be the lowest cost option that produces the lowest level of care, an option that will indeed result in increased costs for the provider as the patient is readmitted yet again.

Both readmission rates and the penalties slapped on these readmissions argue that poor care inevitably ends up costing everyone more in the long-run—more pressure and time for the provider, more money for the payer, more grief for the patient. Even more, these numbers tell a story, a powerful story that shows the careless costs within the American healthcare system that make the payer, the provider, and the patient all worse off. Can we shave $50.7 billion off the total National Health Expenditure by simply improving this relationship?

This is not even to speak of the effects that incentivizing proper nutrition and exercise, addressing the pharmaceutical market, and reforming regulations on price of care could have on this cost. If we analyze this situation from purely a financial standpoint, completely ignoring every humanitarian, moral, and ethical argument, our healthcare system is inefficient at best and damning at worst.

Healthcare spending affects more than just the chronically sick; it affects you, the taxpayer, whose dollars directly fund our national budget.

As data from CBPR shows, Medicare and Medicaid represent roughly 26% of our national budget—that 26% is part of our “mandatory” spending, the part of our budget that politicians claim we can’t touch.

I would argue that we can touch mandatory spending. We can shrink it through lowering hospital readmission rates, through raising the level of care, through changing policy to encourage collaborative behavior between provider and payer, not pitting them against one another.

A healthcare provider, an insurance payer, and a patient all walk into a bar. Let’s not let them get into a bar fight.

Clean Energy by 2045: Difficult But Not Impossible

Back in early September, Governor Jerry Brown signed one of the most ambitious clean energy bills in the country. The bill, entitled SB 100, plans to move California to 100% clean electricity by 2045.

Currently, the state generates about 33 percent of its energy from renewables.

The plan is to hit 50 percent by 2025 (five years earlier than targets set by previous bills), then 60 percent by 2030. Eventually, it should hit 100 percent “zero carbon” by 2045. This would include nuclear power, which is not renewable.

SB100 is not a mandate, but a target goal that would require state agencies, like the Air Resources Board and the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), to use the 100 percent target as a measurement for long-term planning. It would also further expand existing clean energy technologies.

One major project that’s been underway involves the electrification of transportation, which is the largest contributor to emissions. According to a press release by the CPUC back in May, $738 million have been allocated on furthering already-existing transportation electrification projects and other incentives. Some of these include funds to install 870 infrastructure sites to support the electrification of medium and heavy-duty vehicles.

But the task is still extraordinary. Can the world’s fifth largest economy de-carbonize its entire electric grid in less than 30 years? And what will be the cost?

For instance, renewable energy tends to be extremely intermittent. Solar power can only generate energy when it’s, well, sunny. This is particularly challenging since energy use is greatest at dark. Hence, natural gas is still used to compensate during those intermediary periods.

The use of battery storage units that would capture solar energy for later use is one way to get around this. But, as some critics note, this could be expensive and inefficient compared to the use of natural gas.

In addition, the closure of gas-emitting industries and diesel-fueled transportation could destroy many jobs.

For example, back in 2017, Garcetti offered to bring zero-emission trucks to the port of Los Angeles. The costs of these cleaner trucks were much greater than their diesel-fueled counterparts. The financial burdens subsequently fell on the truck drivers, whom had already been facing cost burdens since the passage of the Clean Trucks Program a decade ago.

As the LA Times editorial noted, clean air goals should be implemented whilst taking into account those it leaves behind.

And the cost of not pursuing more aggressive climate policies is simply all too clear. After all, it is our planet that is at stake.

Fortunately, plenty of studies have shown that the switch to full renewables doesn’t just have to be an emergency measure to save the planet, but an extraordinary progressive model that could be a boon to economies, both locally and globally.

In certain regions in California, the results have proven, thus far, to be quite positive.

A comprehensive study commissioned by the non-profit group Next 10 showed that between 2010 and 2016, Riverside and San Bernardino counties experienced a net benefit of $9.1 billion in direct economic activity and gained 41,000 jobs through the construction of renewable power plants.

When taking into account spillover effects, climate policies resulted in $14.2 billion in economic activity as well as the creation of more than 73,000 jobs in the region over the seven years.

Lead researcher Betony Jones stated in the report that even if we were to take into account construction for a “business-as-usual scenario”, the construction of renewable power plants still created the largest number of jobs in the Inland area.

In addition, the more we continue to invest in clean air technologies, the more costs will go down. Solar panel prices, for instance, have dropped precipitously over the decades.

Furthermore, as the world market moves to cleaner technologies, the more economies will be incentivized to pour their resources into it.

Colleen Kredell, director of research at Next10, said that the issue isn’t only about climate change but about global competitiveness.

“You have companies in China, UK, Germany, and India fazing out internal combustion vehicles,” she said. “You got some of the world’s most populous nations, most developed economies, saying ‘we are no longer using gas powered vehicles’. That means there will no longer be a market for those cars.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

How affordable is “affordable housing”?

Luis Herrera lives with his 82-year-old father in a rented 1-bedroom apartment right opposite the Union Avenue Elementary School on South Burlington Avenue. Herrera works full-time at a credit union in downtown Los Angeles, around two miles from his home.

After moving from another apartment building nearby, the Herreras were settling into their new home. But that sense of comfort was short-lived. After a series of gradual rent increases every year, the owners of the property, the “1979 Ehrlich Investment Trust”, suddenly hiked the rent by nearly 25 percent.

The Herreras are not alone. Across the 192 housing units owned by the Trust in the Burlington Apartments, residents of every single unit have reported an increase in rent by 25 to 50 percent this year, according to activists from the local chapter of the Los Angeles Tenants Union.

Luis Herrera

According to real-estate website Zillow, the average rent in Los Angeles has steadily risen to nearly $3000 per month in the last five years. Nearly 2 million residents of the county spend more than half their monthly salary on rents.

Herrera moved into his Burlington apartment four years ago and remembers that the rent was initially $850 per month but the contract said that it would increase by $100 the next year.

“It was okay for me because we were moving from another building where the rent had gone up to $1200…So when we moved from that place, you know, $850 sounded a lot better,” said Herrera.

In 2015, Herrera’s rent increased to $950 and then to $1045 the next year. This year, the owners notified him of a further increase to $1300. Herrera earns a little more than $2500 every month. He said that he already spends half his salary on just the rent.

Herrera’s precarious financial position is compounded by the fact that his father needs regular dialysis. Although the dialysis is paid for by Medicaid, sometimes emergencies crop up which further add to Herrera’s financial burden.

“We have a limited amount of subsidies for housing in this country, which means that most people, even most poor people rent housing on the private market,” said Michael Lens, a professor of urban planning and public policy at UCLA. “Generally speaking, in Los Angeles, we do need more housing.”

What is the state of the private market when it comes to housing?

According to Zillow, the median rent for a 1-bedroom apartment in the neighborhood in which Herrera’s flat is located is $2,370. The last recorded monthly median household income in the council district was $3,647.

    Median Rent in South Burlington Avenue (Source: Zillow)

 

Even in 2015, when the incomes for the council district was surveyed, the rent was around two-thirds that of the household income.

“I know how to spend my money, but it’s really hard when even…if you make, you know, say $2500 a month, when $1300 out of that money is going to rent,” said Herrera.

Besides the rent, Herrera budgets $300-$400 for his food but he says that it usually exceeds the amount because on days that his father is hospitalized, he has to rush from his work to the hospital leaving him no time to cook his own food and forcing him to eat outside.

He also has to pay $300 more every month for his car. His monthly expenditure on gas is around $80. Herrera said that although he works nearby and can easily walk to work, having a car is essential because of his father’s medical condition.

Around $150 more goes on his phone and internet connection and some more on electricity and gas. The result? Herrera hardly has any money left as savings.

Herrera said that many of his neighbors have been forced to move out or have had to take up multiple jobs, sometimes working for 18-20 hours a day, just to be able to pay the rent. Many of his neighbors are old and on fixed incomes from retirement funds and they won’t be able to pay rent if it keeps increasing at the present rate, he said.

Families are also hesitant to move because their children study at the Union Avenue Elementary School right across the street. Herrera said that he knows people in the buildings who are looking for a third job or women who had been taking care of their kids at home and running the house now going out to look for jobs.

“If it comes to it, I can sleep in my car and then I rent a place just for him [Herrera’s father]. I can go to the place, take a nap and just sleep in my car at night…That’s how far I’m willing to go,” said Herrera. He said that his father’s illness has prevented him from moving somewhere else.

A similar situation is faced by Elyse Valenzuela, a resident of a cluster of rent stabilized apartments right opposite the new Banc of California Stadium on Exposition Park. The buildings have been bought by an Irvine-based real estate company, the Ventus Group, and are slated to be demolished to make way for a multi-use luxury residential-cum-commercial complex.

Elyse Valenzuela

What worries Valenzuela the most about her impending eviction is how her brother, who is disabled and suffers from cerebral palsy, will adapt to a new life in another neighborhood.

“It is going to be hard for him because he has his whole life established here…All of his programs are down the street. We have been going to the same doctor for years,” she said. If they are forced to move somewhere else Valenzuela’s family would also have to consider whether there are good programs for him and good doctors in the new neighborhood.

“The development will generate significant tax revenue for the City of Los Angeles, which will help to provide more city services,” said Alice Walton, a spokesperson for the group.

The developers also plan to set aside 82 of the 186 residential units in the project as “affordable housing” units, available for households making less than 80 percent of the area median income determined by the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Maria Ochoa, a local activist however pointed out that even if the project included housing units at lower prices, the demolition of the existing buildings still means that 32 units are off the market.

“[If] say the whole building was rent controlled and turned over into affordable housing, that would be super helpful to the community,” she said.

Valenzuela’s apartment falls under Council District 9, where the median household income is among the lowest in the county. The district has among the highest unemployment rates in the city (8.5 percent unemployed). More than a quarter of the households are also enrolled in the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program — the highest in the city.

                                                                                                               Made with Infogram

The planned commercial project is part of a surge in gentrification around the University of Southern California which adjoins Exposition Park. the university’s growing international cohort also show a willingness to pay more — a fact developers and property owners wish to cash in on. Last month, for instance, around 80 tenants at an apartment complex off Exposition Boulevard were evicted because the new owners plan to convert the units into student housing.

Most of the tenants facing eviction, like those in Burlington, come from working-class backgrounds and are old and retired.

“Luckily for us in our situation we have…people that are willing to open their doors for us. But I know that the rest of the tenants here…their situation is not as good as ours. Some tenants, they don’t have other family members. They’re retired. They get a $500 paycheck every two weeks. How can they afford to go pay $2500 rent?” asked Valenzuela.

Activists fear that increasing gentrification around Los Angeles which increase the area median incomes which in turn will drive up rents even for “affordable housing” projects since their rent is directly dependent on the incomes of the neighborhood.

Herrera said that just because the rent for his apartment is cheaper than the others in his neighborhood does not make it affordable for him or many of the other tenants.

“All these companies that are increasing the rent so much. Are they going to increase their employees’ salaries by 25 percent or 40 percent?” asked Herrera. “Everything is too expensive around here, right? They said the rent here is cheaper than other places. It is cheaper, yes, but that doesn’t mean that it is affordable.”