Want to predict if we are entering a recession without consulting the usual economic indicators like gross national product (GDP) or the unemployment rate? Enter the lipstick index. It basically shows that in times of turmoil, American women turn to purchasing makeup and lipstick. Leonard Lauder, the chairman of Estée Lauder, coined this term in 2001 because he found that in times of hardship, women consistently turned to his makeup company and their sales soared.

So why does this link to a recession in the economy? While the desire to own products such as electronics declines, primal cues increase women’s desire to attract mates through the use of beauty products. Psychologists analyzed this phenomenon further only to realize that when the going gets tough, women buy makeup, perfume and stilettos to increase their sexual appeal. The end game? To find a mate that can provide financial security in the future. Although some may believe that women should think adversely about finding a suitable mate during a time of economic strife, we are primed to believe this—especially during a financial crisis. When you think about it, a financial crisis separates the fiscally strong men from the pack and women see this. Charles Darwin and evolutionary biology suggested that only the fittest of a species will survive. So therefore in a recession, a woman needs to find a mate that can provide resources and can help achieve reproductive success like biology tells her. I know what you are thinking, that’s crazy but it’s true. Even during the Depression, cosmetic sales increased by 25 percent.

As a woman, I find this hard to believe, but are we kidding ourselves? It doesn’t seem like it. However, I would rather buy two lipsticks, eyeshadow, a tube of mascara and a bottle of perfume for $180 from Sephora over a blouse for the same price of Nordstroms and that has nothing to do with biology. We can all get more bang for our buck when it comes to makeup during a recession. If you really think about it, a blouse or expensive purse is more of an investment than a couple of beauty items that can boost your confidence to the same level.

The lipstick index may be something that is cognitively hardwired in women but it also happens to be an excellent economic indicator. In fact in 2008, L’Oreal saw their sales increase by 5.3 percent while other companies like Ford saw a decrease of 18 percent that same year. Although beauty brands may not suffer during a recession, clearly almost everyone else did. This shows that power of the consumer during economic decline and how their behavior can make or break an industry, whether they realize it or not. Primal needs take over in times of crisis from finding a suitable mate to making hard fiscal decisions in order to survive the next month. If anything, this shows that economics can be regarded as a study of behavior and women rather you’re your usual dollars and cents.