Airbnb: the future and challenge of experience sharing

Airbnb and its hosts are broadening their business. During the company’s annual conference in November, Airbnb’s CEO Brian Chesky announced “experience” and “places” will be the two new features joining “homes” on its app. Besides booking a spare room rental, travelers can now use Airbnb to reserve tours and activities.

These two new features are design to help travelers to make more in-depth planning and to have a fuller travel experience. The launch marks Airbnb’s start of transitioning from a home rental site to an integrated travel-planning platform.

“Places” are the travel guides curated by local hosts or experienced traveller. They are essentially lists of places to go. Hidden artistic corners, must-try restaurants, unlikely music venues, etc. Travelers do not have to pay to read these recommendations. This feature has potential to help Airbnb attract more travelers to view its content. Most travelers like to look for places to go before they take off. Some ask on Facebook, some turn to TripAdvisor. But this new “places” feature offers organized personal recommendations that people can eyebrow base on their own preference.

Some curators may recommend places or activities that they have special access to, and that leads into the “experience” feature. “Experience” allow travelers to purchase travel packages on Airbnb. Currently, about 500 activities are available on Airbnb’s app. They are generally more personal and sometimes more creative than the tours from travel agency. For example, travelers can connect to a film producer who can put up a set for them to try out acting. Or they might stay with ranch owner for a few days to ride horses and harvest fruit. Most of these experience packages have activities on multiple days, cost anywhere from $200 to $1000 and provide amenities such as food, drink and tickets. Like home rental, the experience service providers are also individual hosts; Airbnb remains a platform for people to share and meet.

The expansion didn’t come from sudden. Airbnb has been planning and testing on this launching since a while ago. A “journey” feature was tested in the bay area last year, which encourages hosts to plan a whole trip for travelers. In August this year, an app called Airbnb Trip was available briefly on Google Play Store. Similar to “experience”, Airbnb Trip allowed users to reserve activities in their destination, such as booking a restaurant or connecting with a tour guide. In September, Airbnb acquired a travel site called Trip4Real, which also emphasize on unique local experience. The fact that Airbnb raised $850 million in capital this August at its $30 billion valuation also signals a big move.

It is quite an ambitious transition for a company that has only be in the competitive market for a few years. But Airbnb isn’t afraid of trying, because it has the strongest supporters. The annual conference held three days in Los Angeles’s Orpheum Theatre. Although the admission was between $275 and $345 — and Airbnb does not pay for that fee, over 7000 excited hosts from all over the world still rushed to L.A. Many applied to be hosts of “experience”, but the company decided it was going to be more selective at the beginning. Depending on the market needs, there should be more “experience” hosts joining the party.

Hosts are supportive of Airbnb’s new attempt because they are benefited by Airbnb’s operation. Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba created Taobao and became the most popular online trading site; one of its keys to success is that it provided individuals the opportunity to become business owner. Similarly, Airbnb offers a chance for individual homeowner to become a host. As of July 2016, listings on Airbnb has exceeded 2.3 million. Some people even make enough that they decide to run b&b full time. Gabrielle Catania for example, owns a house in Oregon that has four guest rooms. Her place is always reserved as she keeps getting fantastic complement on the breakfast she made. Gabrielle spends at least an hour preparing breakfast for her guests. Apple rose is her favorite desert to serve. She enjoys being an Airbnb host, because it gives her a chance to meet guests from different background while making enough money.

 

Airbnb’s influence over the hospitality industry has been rising drastically since 2013. According to Forbes, Airbnb over 100 million travelers have used Airbnb’s home rental service. The average number of nightly stays is about 500,000. And the valuation of the company has exceeded hotel giant Hilton; about five times of Hyatt.

   

It succeeded for a reason; Airbnb came in at a perfect timing with extensive understanding of the market and consumers. There are always people with extra space in their homes; many even have extra houses. While renting in long term can be troublesome, many welcoming homeowners are willing to rent short term to travelers. There is supply, and there is demand. Internet has encouraged a culture of sharing. Travelers nowadays are often not satisfied with traditional hotel experience. They want a sense of excitement and belonging for their journey. More importantly, they are usually on different budgets. This is when Airbnb kicks in. It partners with homeowners to offers unique accommodations that feel like home at various prices. Travelers can choose to pay $40 a day to live in a tiny tidy single room in Monterey Park, or they can reserve a beautifully designed luxury villa in Malibu that costs $1500 a night. The prices are very flexible, because the market demand is generally high, and it isn’t too difficult to enter the competition and become a host. So even on a relatively low budget, travelers can still compare and choose from different home styles. They like to be able to choose, so they keep coming back.

The home rental is already making great success. But Airbnb still decides to expand its business, because finding a place to “live” is just the start of a great journey. They are aware of this long before they launch these new features. For a long time, Airbnb has been using slogan “Live there, even if it’s just for a night,” to encourage travelers to value their “living experience.”

But there might be other reasons why Airbnb is expanding to promote travel experience. As a platform, sometimes it is hard for Airbnb to background check every host. Many authorities are worried about some of the listings fall foul of laws, so they try to make policy to implement stricter regulations. The state of New York passed law in October to curtail Airbnb and other short term rentals. To ease the worry, Airbnb has been “compromising” by being transparent to the public and releasing users data. Although the enforcement has been postponed, the future of short term home rental in New York cannot be guaranteed. Airbnb needs an alternative, a new area of business to support its operation if any unpredictable happens.

While Airbnb is making a reasonable business expansion, there might be other problems to consider. Airbnb’s selling point is that its activities are provided by local experts, but many local travel agencies have already been in the business for a long time and know the area very well. Although localization is always on the top of Airbnb’s mind, it cannot guarantee its experience packages to be better than what travel agencies offer. Some hotels may find it hard  to keep up with Airbnb because they have established environment, but travel agencies can easily adjust their travel plans and make them more exciting to compete with Airbnb and its proud hosts. At the same time, these local agencies have better relationship and understanding to the government.

Airbnb also needs to be smart on communicating with its hosts if it wants to remain outstanding in the competitive local market. Afterall, Airbnb relies on the hosts to provide great experiences to the customers. It does not interact with the travelers directly. So how can I insure the uniqueness and quality of the service? In a long term, that can be a challenge.

 

 

Reference:

https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2014/jul/08/airbnb-legal-troubles-what-are-the-issues

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-enforcement-of-airbnb-law-postponed-again-1478305423

Airbnb releases first transparency report on government requests for user data

http://www.forbes.com/sites/briansolomon/2016/07/13/airbnb-confronts-racism-as-it-hits-100-million-guest-arrivals/#4fab57e41c3c

https://skift.com/2016/07/11/airbnb-now-has-100-million-users-and-more-grown-up-problems/

Using the Past to Pave the Future – The Toy Industry

These days, it seems that everyone from factory workers to United States president-elect Donald Trump cannot help but reminisce about the ever-vague “good old days.” Many say these were simpler, more predictable times, and it was easy to repeatedly use the same strategy to find success. This is no longer the case, and people and industries as a whole have had to shift their mindsets and continuously innovate in order to stay afloat. This is perhaps most evident in the toy industry and Toys “R” Us specifically as both have been through a roller coaster of progress throughout the last few decades as technology has gotten better and toy preferences have changed.

The modern toy industry was born at the end of World War II. The Great Depression and the World Wars did not leave people with much spending money, but the return of prosperity and the introduction of television and plastic propelled modern American consumption. This was perfect timing for Toys R Us founder Charles Lazarus, who believed that “toys are a great kind of thing to sell, because they don’t last that long.” Lazarus’ strategy was to offer name-brand merchandise at less than list price, and toy manufacturers were willing to compromise because Toys R Us was one of the only retailers that offered year-round sales. Traditionally, toy stores did 70% of its sales during the 6 weeks leading up to Christmas. This meant that the carefully selected stocks of toys were cut dramatically from January to August, which made the toy year short and unsustainable. Toys R Us was unique in that its stocks were maintained throughout the year with toys from manufacturers’ entire catalogues.

Toys R Us stores revolutionized the toy industry. Whereas toy stores used to be small with much of their merchandise stashed in the back room, Toys R Us introduced the warehouse shopping experience. Toy packaging design was now centered on how it would look on the shelf, and from 1975 to 1985, annual revenues at Toys R Us grew from just over $200 million to over $2 billion. The emphasis on the shopping experience worked, and it brought in great success for that time.

Ironically, the toy’s short lifecycle that attracted Lazarus in the first place needed to be adjusted in order for the industry to have consistent sales. Toys that only get played with once or twice is a waste of money in the parents’ eyes, so for a line to stay popular over time, children must want to continue playing with it. The emphasis on sustainable toy lines also keeps prices down by allowing manufacturers more time to get their return on investment while keeping quality up. Children only return to a toy if it has a deeper meaning than just being a plastic object. This could be in the form of a story that is supplemented by a television short or a movie. In the 1980s, the Cabbage Patch dolls and the Transformers took exactly this route, which allowed children to better relate to their toys. Unfortunately, the 90s brought the Internet and technology that offered instant gratification, and static toys no longer held the same appeal.

Instead of producing a toy and creating a story to go with it, toymakers began seeing the benefit of making the two a more streamlined experience through videogames or interactive toys. Videogames tell the story over time, and children can play by themselves in a way that keeps them engaged. In the early 90s, toy spending peaked for four-year-olds, but by the end of the decade, the peak for spending was for three-year-olds. Children were simply outgrowing their toys earlier and finding more interest in electronic games at a younger age.

This shift forced Toys R Us to revamp their stores, and in 1998, it greatly expanded its electronic section. While this was new for Toys R Us, its competition already offered that and more. Wal-Mart, Target, and other discount stores put pressure on Toys R Us as they captured more and more of the toy business. In the mid-90s, Toys R Us held 20% of the market, and Wal-Mart and Target were insignificant. By 2004, Wal-Mart had 20% of the market, Target had 18%, and Toys R Us was down to 17%.

In the 90s, many moms including Kathy Klatman used to regularly shop at Toys R Us, buying dolls and play sets from the toy giant. By the mid-2000s, all of the toys she bought fell into two categories: the more expensive toys, such as American Girl Dolls, were bought through catalog, and the cheap toys, like Matchbox cars, were purchased during her weekly shopping trips to Target. Unfortunately, this did not leave much space for Toys R Us. Klatman says that her kids “already have so many things to play with that [she has] a tendency to look for quality and whether they will play with it for a long time.” When the kids need to be pacified with a simple toy, she can easily pick them up at Target cheaper than she could at Toys R Us.

This was a troubled time for Toys R Us; however, the retailer came up with a plan to stay competitive. In 2000, Amazon and Toys R Us signed a ten-year agreement in which Amazon would devote part of its website to products chosen specifically by Toys R Us. This allowed Toys R Us to select the most popular products and get them to customers more easily. This alliance was widely applauded as a seamless connection between traditional brick-and-mortar stores and new-age Internet companies, but it eventually became entangled in allegations that both sides were not doing as they promised. Toys R Us accused Amazon of allowing other companies to sell toys through their website, and Amazon claimed that Toys R Us was not maintaining a high quality selection of toys. The biggest problem was that online toy sales just were not at the level that both parties anticipated, so they were not making the profits they hoped. By 2004, lawsuits from both sides effectively ended their contract, and Toys R Us was left on its own again.

Toys R Us was at a crossroads. It seemed on the verge of collapse as its market share decreased and the falling out with Amazon worsened. Toys R Us had actually given up rights to its own website in its partnership, so there was not much hope for a quick rebound in online sales. However, Toys R Us was more motivated than ever to take back their place at the top of the toy industry, and they did so by acquiring three pertinent brands: FAO Schwartz, eToys.com, and KB Toys. As much as Toys R Us suffered during this period, its smaller rivals were on the verge of bankruptcy, which meant that Toys R Us could acquire them at a relatively low cost. The acquisitions allowed Toys R Us access to the companies’ established websites, trademarks, and some of their stores. All three of these companies already had well-known brand names, which gave Toys R Us the opportunity to sell a wider variety of products.

To give a greater push during the holidays, Toys R Us began opening temporary pop-up stores that were smaller but require less staff and stock. They were located in malls and shopping centers that could not hold the traditionally massive warehouses of Toys R Us. The widespread and obvious presence of the retailer garnered high sales and happy customers. This was so successful that the company ended up keeping a third of its locations after the holidays in 2010.

Toys R Us also benefitted as the industry as a whole made its comeback. From 2014 to 2015, annual toy sales rose over 6% to $19.9 billion, which was the largest increase in ten years. Popular Hollywood films fueled the popularity of collectibles, which boosted sales like it had in the 80s and 90s. This not only appealed to children, but it also helped toy manufacturers capture the preteen and adult crowds with paraphernalia from movies like Star Wars. Even Frozen, a movie targeted for children, was able to become a top toy brand with $531 million in sales in 2014.

There were also huge developments in technology, which gave toys the ability to interact with children in a more animated and stimulating way. Toys are able to interpret speech and react in the appropriate way using chip technology, which has become cheaper and more powerful. Dolls can have conversations with users and toy cars can be controlled by smartphones. The new Barbie Dreamhouse by Mattel is voice activated, and the music, appliances, and even the elevator can be controlled by simple commands. In this modern era of touch screens and applications, toy manufacturers have to put in extra effort to make sure that physical toys can compete with the seemingly limitless iPads and smartphones.

As for its competition, Toys R Us can be proud to report strong sales, especially during the holiday season. Sales went up 3.7% in the holiday season of 2015 compared to that of 2014 for stores open at least a year. The demand was high for toys, learning products, and seasonal goods, and low for electronics, video game consoles, and videogames. The advantage that Toys R Us has over Wal-Mart and Amazon is that Toys R Us is in the toy business for the entire year, whereas its competition only pushes toy sales during the end of the year. Vendors know this, and they can give Toys R Us more favorable margins.

Toys R Us also has had great success internationally, especially in Canada and Japan. Sales went up 13% in Canada in 2015, and Toys R Us became the largest retailer of children’s products in Japan. The retailer used partnerships to cater to the Japanese market specifically, and there was a strong cultural fit. Japanese families often allow children to choose their own gifts, so the store layout and experience was well-matched with their culture.

Looking to the future, Toys R Us CEO Dave Brandon wants to revamp its stores by turning them into an experiential destination. By creating an interactive space, he hopes that children will begin dragging their parents down to the stores to play at Toys R Us on weekends. Children already love the store, and by giving it this new dimension, they will want to continue going back. The company is now testing sound effects and colorful lights, and they are unboxing more toys in play areas. They are also hosting events including card trading and birthday parties.

Toys R Us is already moving towards their goals, and by mid-2017, the company projects 14% inventory growth. This will make their inventories at the highest amount in almost a decade, and it is proof that they are serious about putting money back into operations. Toys R Us seems to be moving in the right direction, and now it is a waiting game whether the company will go for an initial public offering. The retailer needs to have a successful 2016 holiday period in order to lay the groundwork for a potential second run at an IPO. Toys R Us was a public company until 2005, when it was taken private by investors for $6.6 billion. With strong sales and measureable improvements, 2017 may be the right time for private equity backers to strike. The toy industry will continue to be volatile as technology changes and competition gets tighter; however, Toys R Us has been in the game for quite a while now, and it has gained knowledge and experienced that will help it navigate the whirlwind of its market. Toymakers have every reason to root for Toys R Us, and hopefully, the children of today and the future will make Toys R Us great again.

The Future of Universal Music Group

 

Introduction

            Throughout the past fifteen years, the shifts in technology that have consumed our society have been dramatic, changing the way we conduct every day simple tasks and have altered business models in all different sectors of industry.  Although this can easily be attributed to modification in transportation (Uber), or hotel accommodations (Airbnb), this technological shift and advancement is very evident in the entertainment and music industries as well.

Over the past fifteen years, the music industry, and label conglomerates in particular, has dramatically shifted from a business model focused and reliant on physical album sales to a full service firm offering record production and distribution (that is mostly digital) and other ancillary services of the music industry, such as touring, brand partnerships, and merchandise.  With a reported loss of over 60 percent of revenue over the past fifteen years annually, it has been very clear to these huge, multi-national conglomerates that changes are needed in order to survive in this ever-altering industry.

The three major record labels, Sony Music Entertainment, Warner Music Group, and Universal Music Group, to be discussed in further detail, have taken years to catch up to the evolving technology and consumer demand of our current world, but are working to monetize and turn a strong profit on the world’s biggest artists and names in music once again. Although the days of selling just physical album sales are now over, the music industry is far from dying.

 

History

Universal Music Group, also known by many as UMG, is one of the current global leaders in music.  With over a 30% market share, UMG is considered to be the leader in the industry with a majority share in the global music market.  With this leadership and majority comes with responsibility, as many other companies in the industry, like other label conglomerates, indie labels, management companies, and live ticketing companies look towards the labels and their sales revenues as economic indicators, using them as a clear way of determining the health and vitality of the global music industry. 

The current music industry as we know it, with the three key players – UMG, Warner Music Group and Sony Music Entertainment, was born and created in 2011 with the acquisition and consolidation of EMI and Universal Music Group.

UMG has the largest market share, with a 36.2% share in 2015, followed by Sony with a 28.3% share, and lastly Warner with a 23.1% share.  Independent labels, in 2015, had about a 12% share in the global music industry as well.

2011 was a pivotal time for the music industry, as many lasting changes occurred, shifting the climate of music to today’s current state.  In January 2011, Lucian Grainge was appointed to CEO and then quickly chairman of UMG.  In November of that year, it was announced that EMI, a then big player in the industry would be splitting and merging, selling their recording business assets to UMG for $1.9 billion, and selling their music publishing to Sony for $2.2 billion.

The merger, which quickly changed the landscape of the music industry, was approved by the European Commission and the Federal Trade Commission in Europe and the US, respectively.  This merger changed the music industry landscape overnight, as UMG quickly became the world leader in recorded music and dominated the industry setting.

However, during this time period, the landscape of music purchasing was also changing, with the introduction of digital sales and iTunes, and soon after streaming. iTunes was revealed in 2001 by Steve Jobs at the 2001 MacWorld Expo, and quickly gained traction throughout the world.

In their first press release published in 2001 releasing iTunes 1.0, Apple stated, “iTunes is miles ahead of every other jukebox application, and we hope its dramatically simpler user interface will bring even more people into the digital music revolution.”  As this all became true over the next ten years, it is almost impossible to believe that the instigators of iTunes believed that it would transform the entire music as it eventually did.

It is estimated that iTunes sold over one million songs their first week, with only 200,000 songs available for purchase and download.  By working with the major labels themselves to make sure that their catalogues were available to be purchased, iTunes quickly became a massive music seller.  By 2007, with the release of the first iPhone, Apple became the largest technology company in the world, owning all aspects of our technology-filled lives from the hardware to the content we were consuming on our devices.  And, by the end of the 2000s, iTunes accounted for 26.7% of US sellers, serving as the number one seller of music in the US, either physical or digital.

With the iTunes revenue models, labels quickly began to work with Apple to ensure that their artist and their firms would be receiving adequate compensation, as they realized that the current trends of consumers would quickly begin to shift from physical album sales to singles sold online and downloaded digitally, a la iTunes.

However, by Spring 2011, just as UMG and EMI announced the acquisition, Spotify, a Swedish startup announce that they had just reached over one million subscribers globally and quickly launched in the United States by Summer 2011.  Over the next few years, Spotify and other streaming services would quickly change the entire landscape of the music industry, forcing the major label conglomerates, artists, and other key players to make key adjustments in order to survive in this changing market.

 

Current State of Affairs

            Although many people, especially consumers, today, believe that the music industry is dying and label conglomerates are no longer relevant or prominent in the world, quite the opposite was just recognized, as a new study revealed that the music industry is currently thriving. Even though streaming has easily passed physical album sales as the top way that consumers listen to their music, over the past few years, major conglomerates like UMG have developed new revenue models in order to sustain their businesses.

On November 10, 2016, Universal Music Group revealed their quarterly earnings for Q3 of 2016 and many
people were shocked.  In the first nine months of 2016, UMG reported earnings of over 3.6 billion euros.  This was a 3.8% growth compared to last year’s numbers.  UMG is currently more profitable than Spotify ever has been and is currently on track to have their best year since they were acquired by Vivendi over ten years ago.

Music streaming, in its current state, is expected to bring in close to $6 billion in revenue this year, and is expected to have an annual projected growth rate of 14.3%. (Statistica) With this massive growth in streaming, revenues for the major labels, like UMG are expected to rise in the streaming category as well, with revenue of over $1 billion for UMG alone already reported for 2016.

Streaming is expected to only grow immensely in popularity, as there is projected to be over 1.2 billion users of streaming services by 2021 with a steady increase from now until then.

Diversity of Services

One of the ways in which labels have begun to combat the changing tides of the music industry is to seek out and obtain alternative revenue sources for their artists.  In order to combat the lack of revenue that came from the change to streaming and digital downloads, labels like UMG had to look for alternative ways to make money.  So, they began to sign their new artists to a new type of deal called a “360 deal.”

The deals demand a portion of the artist’s income from record sales, streaming, touring, merchandise, publishing, brand partnerships, and any other type of revenue you might think an artist can receive.  Deals are estimated to range from handing over 5-50% of revenue to the label and can vary on the types of services and revenue streams included depending on the size and career strength of an artist.

Labels, like UMG, have begun to use this model, as they believe that they are investing in the careers of these artists and deserve to be compensated as such.  Because the lack of revenue coming from album sales has hindered their profits, many label heads believe that 360 models will allow them to remain profitable in this ever changing industry and support the artists that they have worked to develop and chosen to put their resources behind.

Artist Perspective

            Today, in 2016, many artists no longer believe that a major label conglomerate is necessary for success and profitability in the music industry.  Just a few days ago, the 2017 Grammy nominations were released.  Many believed that 2017 would serve as the Grammys that changed the music industry, as the Recording Academy was believed to focus on highlighting artists who were not signed under a major label and changed the landscape of the music industry based on their individual decisions.

Although many of the artists (including all of the Artist of the Year nominees) are still representing major labels, one of the most notable non-major label artists nominated is Chance the Rapper.

Chance the Rapper received seven Grammy nominations this year, only following major label artists Drake, Beyoncé, Rihanna, and Kanye West.  Chance received more nominations that Justin Bieber, Sia and David Bowie, all major label artists as well.

Chance, who is not signed to a major label, is known for releasing his music for free and only on streaming sites. His latest album, Coloring Book, was only released on streaming and is the first digital-only album to be nominated for a Grammy.  The album charted on the Billboard Top 200 with over 57 million streams (equivalent to 38,000 units) and his latest single reached the Top 40 charts as well. 

He explains his mentality on not signing to a major label and believes that he can better his career in a way that is in a superior way than any one of the major labels could. “I’m just trying to be an example for all the young artists that are becoming artists everyday and working on their craft and trying to help them avoid the pitfalls of the upper management in music and the non music side of music.  When it’s in your hands you’re just self motivated and have all the tools that are there. I just want people to avoid the convo.”

Although Chance the Rapper is not ever artist, and certainly not every well-known artist currently touring on the charts, he is a strong example of a type of business model that clearly works and is defying the traditional label/artist relationship that major labels like UMG have worked for years to grow and develop.

Conclusion

            UMG, and the record industry as a whole, is at a current crossroads.  From what originally began as conglomerates of music labels working to record and publish music, it seems as if labels are vying to take the control away from artists and other industry entities, like management and agencies, in order to still serve as the gatekeepers of the industry.  From a revenue perspective, major labels like UMG are still vital for many musicians to “make it” in the music industry in order to reach the massive audiences needed to tour or chart.

However, with artists, like Chance the Rapper succeeding without a label and making all of the business decisions with an a la carte team pieced together himself being nominated for multiple Grammys, the current landscape may change even more.  As Chance the Rapper gains notoriety, up and coming, and more developed artists, might begin to forgo the major labels even more and create and build their own teams and revenue models.  Regardless of what occurs in the next few years, it is very evident that the music industry is thriving, due to new technology inserted everyday into the climate.

 

Works Cited

 

360 Deals and What They Indicate About the Future of the … (n.d.). Retrieved December 8, 2016, from http://www.kentlaw.edu/perritt/courses/seminar/Basofin-360%20Deals-FINAL.pdf&p=DevEx,5045.1

 

Buyer Beware: Why Artists Should Do A 180 On “360” Deals. (n.d.). Retrieved December 08, 2016, from http://www.billboard.com/biz/articles/news/1209534/buyer-beware-why-artists-should-do-a-180-on-360-deals

 

Caught In Time: The Music Industry’s Struggle To Adapt. (n.d.). Retrieved December 08, 2016, from http://www.hypebot.com/hypebot/2013/02/caught-in-time-the-music-industrys-struggle-to-adapt.html

 

@. (n.d.). Chance the Rapper, Lil Wayne, and 2 Chainz Trash a Label Office on ‘Ellen’ Retrieved December 08, 2016, from http://www.ew.com/article/2016/09/15/chance-rapper-ellen

 

@. (2016). Chicago’s Chance The Rapper Of ‘No Problem’ Makes Grammy History; Gets 7 Nods Without Label Help; Even Exceeds Adele’s Number Of Nominations. Retrieved December 08, 2016, from http://www.newseveryday.com/articles/58262/20161207/chicago-s-chance-the-rapper-of-no-problem-makes-grammy-history-gets7-nods-without-label-help-even-exceeds-adele-s-number-of-nominations.htm

 

Crook, J., & Tepper, F. (n.d.). A Brief History Of Spotify. Retrieved December 06, 2016, from https://techcrunch.com/gallery/a-brief-history-of-spotify/

 

McElhearn, K. (2016). 15 years of iTunes: A look at Apple’s media app and its influence on an industry. Retrieved December 01, 2016, from http://www.macworld.com/article/3019878/software/15-years-of-itunes-a-look-at-apples-media-app-and-its-influence-on-an-industry.html

 

The New Pioneers: Chance the Rapper Is One of the Hottest Acts in Music, Has a Top 10 Album and His Own Festival — All Without a Label or Physical Release. (n.d.). Retrieved December 06, 2016, from http://www.billboard.com/articles/news/magazine-feature/7468570/chance-the-rapper-coloring-book-labels-grammy

 

Black Friday 2016 Fall’s Short with Consumer Spending

After smothered in gravy and filled with, Americans across the nation begin to plot their plans of attack for the Black Friday sales. Since 1952 Americans have kicked off their Christmas shopping season at major retailers on the Friday following Thanksgiving.

The fact that Black Friday also takes place on a Friday – duh – every year is perfect for retailers looking to drive long weekend sale deals because Americans traditionally have not had to return to work the Friday after Thanksgiving. The commercial holiday is a long way from becoming outdated.   In 2015, 90% of all Americans reported that they intended to shop on the commercial holiday.  However, with the increasingly popularity and convenience of e-commerce as well as the advent of “Cyber Monday”, which made its debut back in 2005, has possibly had a negative impact on companies’ sales revenues.

Reports from 2016’s Black Friday have rolled in and while more Americans went shopping this year in stores and online than in any other year in the Black Friday weekend’s 64-year-old history, American consumers spent considerably less.

Special offers! 10 percent off! Mega Deals! Are all familiar gimmicks that attempt to grab the attention of unsuspecting bargain-loving buyers. Price discrimination is a tactic frequently used by stores around the holidays. It involves the selling of the exact same product at various prices based on different buyers willingness to pay.

There are three degrees of price discrimination. The first, which is alternatively known as perfect price discrimination, occurs when firms charge different rates for every unit consumed enabling them to capture all available consumer surplus. The second-degree involves charging different prices for different quantities, including quantity discounts for bulk purchases. An example of second-degree is when a movie theater offers discounts or deals on snack bundles as a way of getting moviegoers to spend more at the snack bar. The third-degree means charging a different price to different consumer groups like cheaper bus tickets for children and seniors or negotiated gym memberships.

According to this year’s National Retail Federation survey – released the Sunday after Black Friday – approximately 154 million Americans went shopping over the Thanksgiving weekend. An estimated 108.5 million consumers shopped online alone. The numbers indicate a considerable increase, up from the 151 million shoppers that contributed to sales revenue in 2015. Average spending per person dipped slightly from the previous year’s $299.60 to $289.19. The fall in spending is somewhat surprising when taking into consideration wage gains, continued employment growth and a rise in consumer confidence as 2016 comes to its close.

The Friday deals are not necessarily the best offered throughout the year. The day is not geared towards the benefit of the consumers, but rather a device utilized by retailers to clear end of year inventories with artificial deals and storewide discounts.   Professional shopper and Black Friday Veteran Dan de Grandpre explained it best in an interview with the New York Times: “Black Friday is about cheap stuff at cheap prices, and I mean cheap in every connotation of the word.”

 

 

Sources:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2015/12/economist-explains

http://www.forbes.com/sites/tompopomaronis/2016/12/01/black-friday-and-cyber-monday-2016-lets-just-say-there-were-scary-moments/#a89dfa157517

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/11/11-economic-lessons-to-make-you-a-smarter-shopper-for-black-friday/383236/

http://fortune.com/2016/11/27/black-friday-nrf-shopping/

http://www.economicsonline.co.uk/Business_economics/Price_discrimination.html

What to Expect, When Expecting a Trump Presidency – How to Invest

Since the results of the 2016 United States presidential election rolled in on Tuesday, November 8th there has been plenty of speculation regarding what a Trump Presidency will mean for the United States. Issues regarding foreign policy, the environment, women’s rights, healthcare and so on were widely debated and contentious topics leading up to the election. One issue in particular – the US economy — is a burning question that’s left many Americans wondering who will benefit from President-Elect Trump’s economic plan.

Brexit and the subsequent economic implications including the devaluation of the British pound seemed almost like a harbinger or warning call of what the Armageddon-like results of 2016 would be like if Donald Trump won the election. In the days following the November 8th result the stock market responded in a way that left many economists, political pundits and speculators curious to say the least. The early stock market response was overly positive with the DOW, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 spiking up considerably in the morning after the election and continuing to show positive trends. But what exactly elicited such a positive response from the markets, which all seemed to signal economic victory?

Some experts believe that it may have to do with the Trump administrations promise to cut regulations, a vow to dismantle the Dodd-Frank financial reform, and the corporate tax rate, a move that would benefit the private sector tremendously. The “Trump-ed up” trickle down economics that Hillary oh so cleverly coined during the debates, refers to his plans to cut corporate taxes, from a top rate of 35 percent down to 15 percent; in addition, cutting taxes on America’s wealthiest from 40 to now 33 percent for top rates.

Others believe that the results motivated investors to pour money into major construction and engineering stocks in anticipation of a Trump stimulus package for America’s infrastructure that would include major improvements to roads, bridges, telecommunication, public transportation, “world-class” airports, security and utilities while simultaneously creating new jobs and higher wages.

“For the U.S. domestic economy, the obvious winners are infrastructure, with a focus on roads, bridges, and airports,” said Mark Burgess, global head of equities at fund company Columbia Threadneedle Investments (Dieterich).

Burgess’s reasoning would explain why the DOW, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 companies dealing primarily with industrial materials and services have experienced continued growth in stock values since November.

 

“A Goldman Sachs report cautioned that the new U.S. infrastructure spending — which Trump has put at from $500 billion to $1 trillion — would not begin until the third quarter of 2017. Moreover, the price tag is a combination of private and public money, so the scope of Trump’s plan depends on how he counts,” (Mufson).

With all this in mind the question remains, where should we invest? In order to answer this question, it is important to first take a look at the President-Elect’s economic plan. While Trump’s plan could change at the drop of a hat as soon as he enters the Oval, analyzing his current proposal is one of the first steps prior to making investments.

Trump’s vision includes the creation of a dynamic booming economy with 25 million new jobs over the next decade. Trump believes that under his presidency there will be a 3.5 percent growth per year on average. Creating all of these new jobs will result from the Trump energy policy, which he plans to “unleash” as soon as he takes office. The energy policy main objective is to make the US entirely energy independent and in doing so create millions of new jobs and protecting clean and clean water. One of the main problems that has been cited with this plan though is that Trump wants to focus all of this energy plan’s efforts on coal, oil, and natural gasses – all of which contribute to pollution and directly contradict the Paris Climate change agreement. Shifting the focus away from environmental protections and issues could mean an overall increase in drilling everywhere, especially Federal land holdings:

“Lifting unnecessary restrictions on all sources of American energy (such as coal and onshore and offshore oil and gas) will (a) increase GDP by more than $100 billion annually, add over 500,000 new jobs annually, and increase annual wages by more than $30 billion over the next 7 years; (b) increase federal, state, and local tax revenues by almost $6 trillion over 4 decades; and (c) increase total economic activity by more than $20 trillion over the next 40 years,” (www.donaldjtrump.com).

The energy policy could mean big returns on energy investments. The big American oil companies, Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX), will undoubtedly benefit from a pro-oil and natural gas administration. Companies dealing with energy infrastructure should also be given a closer look. Making federal land readily available and investing less in alternative clean energy would drastically support big oil in general. The appointment of Scott Pruitt, former Oklahoma attorney general, to President-elect Trump’s to run the Environmental Protection Agency is a clear signal that the Trump administration plans to shift energy policy’s attention away from clean and renewable energy. Mr. Pruitt, a Republican, is already noted as being a climate change denialist. During his time as Oklahoma’s attorney general, he fought vehemently against President Obama’s climate change policies battling on behalf of the coal industry. In fact, as Oklahoma’s top prosecutor Pruitt went so far as to sue the EPA. The appointment, while bleak does spell out good news for the fossil fuels industry and those who wish to invest their assets in the same companies that gave Pruitt under the counter campaign contributions.

The energy policy makes a stipulation that under a Trump administration the President-Elect would like to see the US become the world’s leader in energy technologies including nuclear power.   A company like BWX Technologies (BWXT), which specializes in energy infrastructure –more specifically nuclear energy technology – with a large government, services and facilities management division could see a rise in stock earnings over the next few years. The day of the election BWX Technologies stock traded at 36.63 before spiking up the next day to 39.54, with continued growth since the election and a 5-year record high on November, 25th at 40.52.

“Analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald recently predicted that there would be a “violent increase” in uranium prices at some point, theorizing that as much as 80 percent of the uranium market might be uncovered in terms of supply by 2025, and that demand would by then outstrip supply,” (Stafford).

Beyond the infrastructure and energy sectors, there are several top industries that will be impacted by the upcoming Presidential administration. Defense  will be huge, YUGE! Trump has already indicated that he wishes to expand the size of the Army and Marine Corps dramatically, build new vessels for the Navy and jets for the Air Force, all while modernizing the US’s nuclear arsenal. Lockhead Martin (LMT), Raytheon (RTN), General Dynamics (GD), and BAE Systems (BA), are just a few of the big name defense stocks that have enjoyed growth in investments following last month’s presidential election. Trump’s rhetoric of slashing corporate taxes while beefing up America’s military was the perfect concoction for what resulted with investments in the defense sector.

“‘Trump’s win is good news for the defense industry, especially when coupled with Republican majorities in the House and Senate,” said Loren Thompson, a defense consultant who advises many of the nation’s top-tier contractors,’” (Heath).

Defense shares have continued to hold on to steady numbers and still offer new buying opportunities for interested investors. Lockheed Martin alone, experienced a 20-point stock jump following the election results and — as of December 7th — continues to hold on to a solid 266.38 valuation (Carson). Trump’s eagerness to increase the size and capacity of the military will directly benefit defense contractors like BAE Systems and General Dynamics, as well as helicopter and plane manufactures like Boeing.

“Eaglen acknowledged that “‘the major defense contractors are part of the establishment he’s railing against.’” But she said Trump does not really have a choice but to stick with them. “‘If he wants to show results, he’s got to live with the contractors he has,” she said. “‘You have to go with the production lines you have open,’” (Heath).


A conservative estimate of Trump’s promised budget has been projected at an additional $55 billion in defense spending. A question that remains though is where exactly Trump plans to find the money to pay his steep tab.

Speculative investments on defense contractors have run rampant in the past month. One company that drew attention, in particular, was Magal Security System (MAGS), the company responsible for building the infamous high-tech fences and walls along Israel’s volatile border. Magal Security System was also responsible for the erection of a massive separation barrier along the West Bank, which includes cameras, sensors, and robotic technology. The supposed wall that Trump plans to build across the US-Mexico 1,933 mile long border likely has something to do with Magal Security System’s uptick in stock prices. The company’s shares were up 24 percent from its 4.45 closing price on Election Day.

“‘We believe that the U.S. government is going to increase its security budgets in the upcoming years and definitely we look forward to take part in it,’” the company’s chief executive, Saar Koursh,” (Scharf).

If your consciousness has not already felt besieged by the possibly lucrative albeit morally ambivalent ways in which you can see investment returns over the next 4 — hopefully 2 — years than prepare yourself for the next industry that might be headed for an upswing. Private prisons.

It was only two months ago that the Justice Department announced a plan to abolish the use of private facilities for its federal inmates. The decision led to a correlated stock dip in corrections companies – an arguably rightly so.

Unfortunately, Trump’s win has revived the stock earnings of America’s controversial industry. While the President-elect has yet to mention any specific plans of private prisons during his presidency his Nixon-esque “Law-and-Order” candidate rhetoric has left many people believing that he will ensure and protect these private facilities. Investors are speculating heavily that the administration will require the private prison infrastructure to carry out its “feasible” plan fro a mass-scale deportation plan.
Two of the largest private prison companies – CoreCivic (CXW) and the Geo Group (GEO) – saw spikes in their stocks following the election results (Harlan).

Ultimately – though – our hot Cheeto President-Elect has a hot temper and trigger finger when it comes to shooting out tweets and absurd statements that have the power to increase and decrease the value of stocks in a matter of seconds. Just yesterday morning, Trump tweeted out:

“Boeing is building a brand new 747 Air Force One for future presidents, but costs are out of control, more than $4 billion. Cancel order!”

The problem with his tweet? Other than falsely overestimating the budget of the Air Force One replacement program by roughly $2.0 billion is the impact his words had on Boeing stock. The Boeing stock took a momentary nosedive before recovering by the closing bell. The event is just one example of how the reckless and ill-informed words of America’s soon to be leader could have dire impacts on the US economy and stock market.

 

 

 

 

 
Sources:

http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2016/12/07/Nuclear-Power-Could-Boom-Under-President-Trump

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/press-releases/fact-sheet-donald-j.-trumps-pro-growth-economic-policy-will-create-25-milli

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/12/07/trump-names-scott-pruitt-oklahoma-attorney-general-suing-epa-on-climate-change-to-head-the-epa/?utm_term=.ac7913795562

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/07/us/politics/scott-pruitt-epa-trump.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/mr-business-goes-to-washington-now-what/2016/11/12/8c7f7846-a6e2-11e6-ba59-a7d93165c6d4_story.html?utm_term=.801e360cc433

http://www.investors.com/research/ibd-industry-themes/5-defense-stocks-in-or-near-buy-zones-after-trump-offensive/

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/11/24/trumps-mexican-wall-boon-israeli-security-company/94377438/

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/how-to-invest-during-the-trump-presidency-cm708605