The Wells Way – Building a Family Construction Company

“We Listen. We Collaborate. We Build.” – These three sentences lay the foundation for Wells Construction, a family originated company since 1989. The business is located in Roseville, California, approximately 25 miles outside of the state’s Capitol. Three generations of Wells family members have received employment from the company, creating a tight bond for the family – and inevitably, bound with its challenges as well.

When the recession hit in 2008, the demand for construction services took a turn for the worse, as the figure below shows. With this knowledge, I anticipated that Wells Construction wrestled to get through the economic downturn. A small, family run construction business does not have the reserve of resources that major construction companies have to get through an economic downturn like the Great Recession. This led me to inquire how Wells Construction found success to get through the rough times.

 

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CJ Wells, the Training and Development Manager of Wells Construction, agreed to have a conversation with me about the impact the changing economy has had on their business. The first topic brought up was the big question of the day – how did they find success in an otherwise pessimistic market for construction? He began to explain that their business sources two main facets for revenue: general construction and Starbucks. One of the first bids (agreement to build) that Wells Construction acquired was Starbucks – an international chain of coffeehouses. This set the stage for a long relationship with Starbucks, one of the factors that kept Wells Construction alive through the recession. Through time, the construction company was able to take over all the planning and building services for Starbucks throughout the Sacramento area. CJ explained, “Although the construction industry has a lot of risk, Starbucks seemed to be recession proof in Sacramento, allowing us to keep our employees in employment and our office buzzing.” When asked whether cyclical or secular shifts have affected the family business, CJ explained that there have been more cyclical changes for the company. Approximately every five years they experience a period of growth, followed by a time of decreased demand for construction services (riding the “economic rollercoaster”).

Besides their relationship with Starbucks, their other source of revenue is in general construction – the other industries that choose to use Wells Construction for their planning and constructing needs. A certain tactic they employed to get through the recession was to focus on developing relationships with certain industries that were expanding. Currently, the veterinarian industry is growing in Sacramento; therefore, Wells Construction has placed a group of employees to strategize multiple methods to become “the” veterinarian construction group in the area. Another industry that was expanding despite the recession was private medical offices; therefore, Wells Construction also put attention towards this avenue of development. CJ made a point to exclaim that 80% of their general construction services are with repeat companies, or recommendations within the same industry. This percentage reveals that their company not only builds for their customer, but they also put effort into maintaining this relationship. For example, one of their recent projects was to build an “Orange Theory” gym in Roseville. After this was completed, Glen (the owner of Wells Construction) paid for a year membership to the fitness center for all of his employees.

 

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Two generations of the Wells Family: (from left) CJ Wells, Clinton Wells, Glen Wells (CEO), and (not part of the Wells Family) Tim Brockway (President/CEO of ASG).

 

Although it appeared that the recession has not impacted Wells Construction as much as I anticipated, there are still challenges present with the construction industry. The first issue at hand that CJ revealed was the continuous struggle to balance cost, quality, and time when it comes to placing a bid on a new project. Taking on the perspective of the customer, it would be ideal to have the construction project completed fast, with high quality, and in a timely manner; however, this is simply not realistic. CJ explained that you can ultimately have two out of three aspects, and not having the right balance offered on the bid could lead to losing a potential customer. Another concern Wells Construction is dealing with is the capability to control the amount of growth the company is experiencing. This is where CJ plays a vital role in the company – handling the growth and trying to keep up with the demand for their services. At first I was perplexed to hear that this incident was considered an issue, but CJ explained that if the company did not handle the growth well, it could be a swift death sentence to Wells Construction. The employee turn over rate is extremely high right now, and that also poses as an issue. Hiring employees to keep up with the projects they are accepting is risky, especially when this growth period eventually slows down and they are forced to re-evaluate the size of their team. Amidst this growth, the construction company recently decided to open a new office in Irvine, CA, which comes with a big potential for increased profits, although the stakes are evidently higher as well. Developing the infrastructure and work force to maintain this office is up to CJ – not only is their money invested in this new office, but so is their credibility as an upcoming force in the construction industry.

If Wells Construction can use this time of growth to their advantage, CJ anticipated that the company could begin to accept larger projects (right now the projects are no more than a couple million with a range between 8-20% profit). To take on a large-scale project worth more money, the company would need to acquire additional insurance, and consequently, take on more liability. The company is not ready to make this move; however, with time and positive development – it could be in the near future.

 

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A snap-shot from the Wells Construction website.

 

Wells Construction, the family construction company from Roseville, California, has worked its way up the business ladder to increase its profits, hire a larger workforce, and open a new office location. The recession was not a complete blow to the company as Starbucks was the lifesaver that kept them through the storm; however, their growth from this new era of demand for construction seems to be the ultimate test of the company’s strengths.

Sources:

California Commercial Construction

http://clients1.ibisworld.com/reports/us/bed/default.aspx?entid=84

No Crocodile Tears for Alligators During a Recession

During times of recession Americans are less than keen on going shopping—no surprise here. Even when the economy is booming, most Americans never weigh the costs and benefits of buying alligator skin boots, belts or bags, wallets or watches. No matte

alligatorr how well the economy is doing, $2000 for Gucci alligator skin loafers or $100,000 for an alligator skin Birkin bag by Hermes, one of the most prominent players in exotic tannery business, never seems worthwhile. Apparently during recessions the wealthiest Americans are hit hard too—right in their $11,000 Burberry alligator skin wallets; but that’s just fine by the alligator population.

As it turns out, sales of alligator skin goods plummet during recessions. Economists first noticed this trend during America’s most recent financial crisis in 2009. There is little available data concerning alligator populations in the US, though experts generally believe that the total population has steadily increased since the 1970’s. Louisiana is home to one of the largest alligator populations in America, and the industry makes a somewhat significant contribution the state’s economy. Louisiana’s Department of Wildlife and Fisheries website has an entire menu section dedicated to its “Alligator Program” that’s separate from information about other wildlife. Maintaining a healthy commercial farming population requires alligator farmers to rent helicopters to scout nesting areas, wade into marshes to collect the eggs (and potentially confront angry female alligators), and invest considerable time and energy into raising them in captivity. Bottom line: if hides aren’t selling farmers are losing a lot of money.

During the Great Recession many, if not all, of the state’s alligator farms experienced serious liquidity issues and worried about their business’s solvency going forward because the prices tanneries and high-end fashion houses were willing to pay for hides dropped so quickly. This industry was affected so severely that Louisiana’s Alligator Management Program report since 2008 lists an asterisk next to the revenue data from that year stating, “Worldwide economic recession caused alligator hide demand to decrease dramatically.”

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From 2002-2007 the total revenue from alligator hides increased sharply, reaching a peak value near $55 million. Total revenues decreased dramatically in 2008, rebounded slightly in 2009, and then dropped again in 2010; revenue fell to a fifth of what it was in 2007. These drops in revenue directly correspond to decreases in GDP the both Louisiana and the United States experienced in 2009.LAGDP

This correlation exists for earlier recessions as well. Commercial alligator farming was prohibited from 1965-1972 in an effort to protect the alligator population, so Louisiana only has data available beginning in the early 1970’s.  Quadrupling oil prices, high unemployment and a high inflation rate contributed to significant stagnation in the the U.S. economy from 1973-1975; alligator hide revenues in Louisiana also decreased by about 58% during this time. Revenues rose dramatically again in 1976, corresponding to an increase in GDP for both Louisiana and the U.S. The disparity was extreme: in 1975 revenues from farm alligator hide harvests totaled $3,597, compared to $34,259 in total revenue in 1976.

Alligator skin revenues in Louisiana dropped significantly again from 1981 to 1982, corresponding to another global economic slump in the early 1980s. USGDPWhen the stock market crashed in 1987 and the business cycle dipped from 1990-91, alligator hide revenues were along for the ride, stagnating from 1989 to 1990 and then decreasing sharply until 1992. Finally, total revenues decreased again from 2000 to 2001, which corresponds to a decrease in Louisiana’s GDP from 1999 to 2000, the burst of the dot.com bubble in 2000, and the September 11 terrorist attacks in 2001. Revenue from alligator hides in Louisiana is currently on the rise again, at a time when IPO valuations and the S&P 500 are reaching record highs.

 

It seems somewhat counterintuitive that a decrease in revenues from a luxury good would correlate so well with economic downturns. Only the wealthiest portion of the population can afford goods made from alligator hides, and people typically assume that they are insulated from economic recession or hardship. Yet, this niche luxury goods industry experiences significant declines during periods of economic recession. While it’s no great tragedy that someone won’t be able to purchase exorbitantly-priced shoes, it is perhaps comforting to note that recessions and financial crises force every man to tighten his belt, whether it’s made from alligator leather or elastic.

Clipping Coupons, Cutting Spending

When the economy sinks deeper, consumers tend to get creative about finding ways to cut on spending. 

Equipped with scissors, printers and shopping carts, in recent years many Americans have hunted for online coupons to save on products like canned soup, toothpaste and cookies.

While consumers print and clip their coupons, COUPONSeconomists closely watch their activity, trying to link it to economic growth or decline. 

Over the years, they have calculated that the more people print coupons, the worse the economic pressure they are feeling.

Originally intended as a form of advertising, coupons became a way for some customers to increase the value of their non-monetary exchange for groceries and goods. [Read more…]

Minimum wage hikes suggest optimism for economic growth

Garcetti announces his plan for a new minimum wage this Labor Day weekend. | LA Times

Garcetti announces his plan for a new minimum wage this Labor Day weekend. | LA Times

Los Angeles hotel owners got a jolt early this year when Mayor Eric Garcetti announced a plan to boost the minimum wage for 10,000 housekeepers, bellboys, janitors and other menial workers at the city’s largest hotels from $9 to $15.37.

Now Garcetti wants to bring that pay raise to all industries across the city, ultimately aiming to lift 567,000 people out of poverty. He said in a statement:

Our city has always enjoyed the greatest prosperity when everyone can afford to support themselves and contribute to our economy.

By improving the quality of life for the working class, the mayor also aims to boost the economy. Will it work? And conversely, what can the minimum wage tell us about the economy’s health? [Read more…]

Fashion Trend and the Economy in South Korea—Back to the Basics

Economy is interesting because it even affects what people wear. The most well-known fashion related economic indicator of all time is the Hemline Indicator, an idea that women’s hemlines are influenced by the macroeconomic performance. In other words, the shorter the skirt gets, the better the economy looks.

South Korea is currently struggling with economic recession. Its economy suffered its worst growth in more than a year during the second quarter of this year. The cloudy outlook for the economy in South Korea is therefore affecting latest fashion trends—people are going back to the basics.

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According to the data analysis that has been conducted by istyle24, one of the biggest online fashion retail store in South Korea, there was a huge rise in demand for basic fashion items. Comparing to last year, there was a 139% rise in classic tees, 78% rise in plaid/checkered shirts, and 54% rise in polos for men’s fashion items. Accordingly, the shop has also seen a 30% hike in basic tops and 42% rise in tanks in women’s items.

Moreover, the analysis also stated that there was a much higher demand in the market for white, black and gray color fashion items regardless of gender. Comparing to last year, fancier color such as pink, blue and orange items showed a 19% decline while there was a 21% growth in the market for achromatic color clothes.

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This interesting trend in the fashion market can be explained in a few ways. First of all, the price. Obviously people are having less money to spend on clothes and other luxury items due to economic recession.  Thus people are turning to something they can easily afford such as classic tees and basic tanks that are relatively cheap comparing to other kind of clothes. For instance, you can get a men’s v-neck tee that is as cheap as $3.80 at Forever 21.

Another big reason for growth in demand for basic style clothing is that they have high applicability. Consumers who now have less money to spend are not willing to take risks in buying clothes. In other words, people want to buy items that they know they will put on for sure instead of having to waste money on something that will be kept in their wardrobes forever. People in South Korea are basically taking advantage of inexpensive classic fashion items that can be easily matched with anything.

Whether it is the hemline or the t-shirts or whatever the fashion item may be, one thing we can know for sure is that economic recession makes people look less fancy.

 

 

Women As Economic Indicators

Women consumers are a driving force in the market place, constantly shaping market patterns and trends. While new fashion and beauty trends seem to constantly be surfacing, many of these fashion trends aren’t as random as once thought. Though the latest issue of Vogue many seem like a collection of designer ideas and fashion revolutions much of women’s style runs in cycles. Further research into these cycles has revealed economic ties to woman’s buying habits.

Lipstick_mainOne of the more widely talked about economic indicators tied to women is the lipstick index. Leonard Lauder argued “that during difficult economic times, women will increase purchases of lipstick and makeup and decrease purchases of higher priced goods like shoes and handbags”. There are two major theories that support why women would increase their makeup buying habits in hard economic times. The first of these theories looks at the self-esteem of women and the need to have luxury goods even when unaffordable. Women’s fashion is branded from a desire standpoint not a need standpoint therefore women view items like handbags and shoes as items that increase their self-value. While money may run short women’s opinions of their own self-worth does not diminish at the same rate. This leads to women seeking desire goods that fit their new price point, such as lip stick.
The second theory looks into the reasons why women buy makeup to begin with, with one of the main reasons being to increase their attraction level. A study conducted by a team of psychologists looked into this trend and noticed that as a recession occurred the number of men women found attractive decreased. This occurred for several reasons with the primary reason being women look for financial security in a partner as a major trait. Business Insider found that the “results of four separate experiments showed that women were likely to increase purchases of lipstick, perfume, and other products that might enhance their sex appeal.” While handbags and shoes might also enhance a women’s sex appeal, during economic downturn these expensive items fall into an unaffordable price range.

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Women do not affect the market only with beauty sales but with fashion as well. George Taylor in the 1920s came across the Hemline Index. This index looks at the length of women’s garments juxtaposed to the state of the economy. In his research he found that the better the economy was doing the shorter the hemline fell on women’s clothing. Many economists have looked at this theory and found differing reasons. Some found that a longer hemline in economic downturn was a result of women wanting to appear more professional as they looked for jobs or tried to keep their jobs. This was backed up with dramatic length changes on women’s clothing during the 2008 financial crisis. On the opposite end other economist found that the shorter hemline in good economic times was a result of more disposable income being spent on partying and social use.

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Women’s buying habits highlight a third economic indicator the High Heel Index. Dr. Trever Davis found that “Usually, in an economic downturn, heels go up and stay up – as consumers turn to more flamboyant fashions as a means of fantasy and escape”. While in the previous study it was shown that women tend to shy away from buying expensive items like shoes; this study has shown that those who still do purchase shoes purchase higher ones. The high heel has been correlated with a women’s confidence and an overall put together presentation. The association has led women to purchase higher shoes in harder times to in a way suppress reality.
Women have always been large consumers in the market place and studying their consumption patterns has given economist a different way of looking at the economy. While the standard economic statistics and figures are still used as the most credible way to gage the state of the economy looking at trends such as these provide a different perspective.

Durable Goods Orders, a Barometer of Economic Confidence

The Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufactures’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders is a monthly report released by U.S. Census Bureau, part of which indicates dollar value of new orders of durable goods made by more than 4,000 manufacturers. These goods are expected to have a useful life of at least three years and higher prices. They include defense aircraft, automobiles, furniture, computer equipment and etc.

Businesses are not doing that purchase so often. Once paying a huge amount of money, manufacturers are expecting a long useful life from these goods and showing confidence in the economy, otherwise they will held the decision until the economy is promising enough.

The orders of durable goods placed by manufacturers can cause a chain of economic changes. Since the durable goods are often purchased to replace the old ones or as supplements, a higher efficiency and more supply can be expected. As supply produces it’s own demand, consumer purchase usually rises while manufacturers providing more goods. Workers in the supply chain will have more working hours and lead to the change of non-farm payrolls. In a long run, when the supply-and-demand balance has been affected, it will further place an influence on inflation or deflation.

Similarly, shipments of orders will increase the need for transportation businesses. In addition, the change of shipment/inventory ratio will also affect the supply-and-demand balance.

The index of durable goods orders has long been used as an important barometer of economy. As the graph below shows that the Durable Goods Orders are correlating to the changes happened to GDP.

Consumer Durable Goods New Orders and Real Gross Domestic Product

Consumer Durable Goods New Orders and Real Gross Domestic Product

When the unemployment rate is reverted, it shows correlations to durable goods orders. It’s easy to find that durable goods orders usually drops earlier than the upcoming recessions, while the unemployment rate will lag the rise of durable goods orders after suffering from the hard times. As a result, the durable goods orders indicate the confidence in the economy and often predict significant economic changes.

Consumer Durable Goods New Orders and Unemployment (Inverted)

Consumer Durable Goods New Orders and Unemployment (Inverted)

The data of durable goods orders are collected and released month by month, so it’s a timely feedback and indicator for many to make their right investing decisions.

Despite all the strengths, durable goods orders are volatile due to some unexpected purchases made for transportation and defense.

For example, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, orders for manufactured durable goods in July has increased $55.3 billion or 22.6 percent to $300.1 billion. But this surge mainly comes from bookings for civilian aircraft. Boeing has said that it received 324 aircraft orders in July. The following news from Bloomberg shows how the unexpected orders affected July’s Durable Goods Orders.

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So “excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.8 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 24.9 percent” for July.

Therefore, when making predictions, defense and transportation orders are often leave out. The graph below, contrasting durable goods orders with those excluding transportation and defense, shows the substantial volatility of transportation and defense.

Core Capital Goods New Orders (ex Transportations &Defense) Percent Change Since 2000

Core Capital Goods New Orders (ex Transportations &Defense) Percent Change Since 2000

As a result of the constantly fluctuating and unexpected orders from transportation and defense, the number for a particular month may not wisely suggest the change for the whole market. While, the annual changes may be more worth noticing.

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Annual Changes In Durable Goods Orders

Embrace Recessions, Hollywood!

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History tells us that recessions and Hollywood is like Oreo and milk – the perfect combination. Why? The above graph shows yearly changes in Gross Domestic Production (GDP) compared to the previous year and the number of movie tickets sold in the U.S in recent years. We can easily tell that, in most cases, consumers’ desire for movies is negatively correlated with the general economic environment. Namely, when people are “rich,” they’re more likely to splash out in town; while “they lose where they are, they go into the movie,” said Jeanine Basinger, a film historian and chairwoman of the film studies department at Wesleyan University in Connecticut.

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Surely there’re exceptions, but Box Office doesn’t depend solely on GDP. Factors like the annual movie market situation and the quality of movies cannot be ignored. In 2008, the Great Recession began. However, from the first graph at the beginning, it seems that people didn’t go to theatres much at that time – but did they? According to Box Office Mojo, the number of movie tickets sold in 2008 was $1341.3 million, which was the lowest since 1996. But if we take a close look at statistics from the highest grossing movies in 2001 to 2013, American’s spending on The Dark Knight, the top box-office movie in 2008, has taken up 53.2% of the global market, which was the highest since 2001 – even Avatar was defeated! Perhaps the general movie quality  in 2008 was just so-so, and that was the reason why people wouldn’t watch more movies. However, no matter what reason it was, we can see that in most of the time, recessions give Hollywood kisses and hugs.

Some might argue that they watch fewer movies now than they did before recessions. Indeed, a poll conducted by Harris Interactive shows that 55% of people go to movie theaters much fewer than before. But another factor that affects box-office should be taken into consideration as well – the changes in ways of how people consume movies. At early times, people could only enjoy movies at cinemas. Then, Digital Video Disk (DVD) was invented – people could buy or rent movies to watch at home. Now, there’s Netflix!

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Netflix, Inc. is one of the top providers of on-demand Internet streaming media. It offers Hollywood another way to take a place in consumers’ life. Just take a look at how fast it’s been growing. Netflix’s revenue in 2013 was $4374.56 million, which was 28 times that in 2002. Up to the end of 2013, the number of subscribers of Netflix has reached 31.7 million. But it doesn’t stop there. Netflix has topped Q2 domestic subscriber growth targets in 2014 by 9.6%, and added another 570,000 U.S. streaming customers to the company – and counting.

“Many feel like recession still hasn’t ended,” this is the headline of a news report written by John W. Schoen on January 1, 2014 in USA Today. However, it seems that people’s passion for movies doesn’t fade even so. Maybe for a large number of people, going into “another world” by watching movies, or an inexpensive night at home with couple of drinks can be an escape, a solution or some kind of comfort against influences they get from the not-so-promising economy. Perhaps we can say that Hollywood is shelter for people to hide in, especially when they’re suffering from gloomy economic environment.

Low-wage Workers Growth versus California Economy Recovery 

California’s decreasing unemployment rate indicated the state is slowing healing the scar by the great recession, but looking in to the average wages, a growing share of lower-age jobs sheds doubts to the sign of economic recovery in California.

According to the statistics provided by the California Budget Project, low to middle-wage workers have been paid less over the last decade. By the end of last year, low-wage workers were paid 12.2% less than similar workers paid 35 years ago, after adjusting for inflation. In comparison, high-wage workers were paid 17.4% more than similar workers made in 1979.

 

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Analysts forecasted that in the coming decade low-wage jobs will keep growing in the workforce market. Slow wage growth certainly shed doubts to economic recovery for low to middle wage Californians.

So what does this mean? California’s growing job market lift up the employment rate in the state and makes itself one of the fastest rates in the nation, but the growth of jobs is over concentrated in the growth of lower-wage workers. Indeed, not only California, the recovered job lost during the recession in the U.S. also comes with average of 23% less payment in the new jobs. Large percentage of low-income workers could indicate California pays less in support for higher education investments.

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Some say that despite the increasing number of low-income workers, interestingly, the minimum wage of California has been increasing throughout decades. The current minimum wage is $9.00 per hour, far higher than $2.90 per hour in 1979. The newest minimum wage of $10.00/hour will be officiated in 2016.

However, the rising minimum wage does not necessarily indicate the diminishment of lower-income workers. Together with the increasing living expenses, people’s demand for salary increased throughout these years. Raising minimum wage is still in demand to boost the pay for low-wage workers to shrink the gap between low and high incomes. In the meantime, analysts advocate government to invest more in higher education, affordable preschool and after-school care to assist working parents.

 

 

Las Vegas as Economic Indicator

Looking to Las Vegas for signs of economic recovery might not be such a bad idea. With the 2014 NFL season kicking off this weekend, it serves as a reminder that gambling is one of the more taboo economic indicators we can look at. Casinos have been commonly thought of as “recession proof,” but they have become much more susceptible to the business cycle. Bernard Baumohl noted in his book The Secrets of Economic Indicators: Hidden Clues to Future Economic Trends how true this was for Las Vegas during the recent economic malaise. “In the year before the recession, casinos on the Las Vegas Strip were raking in about $600 million each month from just gaming activity,” said Baumohl. “Those monthly revenues plummeted 25% during the economic downturn.” This makes sense, since it isn’t hard to see how gambling patterns can hint at the overall economy’s performance. When people are more confident they will have disposable income they won’t need to save incase of a rainy day, they’re more willing to blow it at a casino.

 

This article from Hannah Dreier of the AP last fall highlights how deadbeat gamblers becoming more willing to repay their outstanding debts is another sign things are turning around for Las Vegas casinos. Shockingly, the article notes “Las Vegas executives say people are especially likely to skip out on their gambling losses when times are hard.”

 

Las Vegas has followed the economic roller-coaster of the past few years, with tourism dropping from over 39 million visitors in 2007 to only 36 million in 2009. Sin City’s gaming revenue also plummeted during the same time frame, falling nearly 20 percent, according to the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority. However, Las Vegas has returned to pre-2008 visitor numbers, with the city expected to cross the 40 million visitors threshold in 2014 for the first time in its history.

 

Giving people a place to gamble hasn’t been the only reason for the city’s comeback, though. Casinos have shifted their focus to attract customers through celebrity restaurants, fancy pool parties, and bringing in high end DJs to their nightclubs. “Las Vegas has moved away from being just a gambling town,” said Rob Oseland, president and COO of SLS Las Vegas told NBC news. “It’s about offering a broader array of products from luxury rooms to fine dining to entertainment for people who aren’t necessarily interested in gambling.”

 

Las Vegas is banking on the trend to continue upward, with new hotels popping up along the Strip. Oseland’s 1,600 room SLS Las Vegas opened up last month, and new hotels are expected in the coming years next to Circus Circus and the Wynn. It’s a welcome change to a city that has seen several big money casino projects abandoned following the economic downturn.

 

Lastly, investors have caught on to the recovery in Las Vegas as well. Wynn Resorts (WYNN) has seen its stock appreciate nearly 300 percent in the past five years, and the Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS) has seen its share price increase from the low teens to $63 dollars per share this week.