Wall Street and its investors are anxiously anticipating the results of the current midterm elections. The expected results are that the Republicans will win the Senate and that the Democrats will win the House. Many investors are hoping for this result as it would cause gridlock. This means that the existing economic agenda would stay relatively the same. If Democrats were to win both houses, there would be sharp sell-offs. If Republicans were to win both houses, then stocks may rally in favor of tax cuts. 

Many of the major banks agree that there will be a split in Congress, however each bank has their own interpretation of how the market will react to this split. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch believes that base case is a boon for equities since markets typically do well under gridlock. Goldman Sachs believes that there will be modest reactions, weaker fiscal stimulus and growth, and no major changes in trade policy. Morgan Stanley believes that a trade risk will be present regardless of the outcome of the election. (Franck)

If there is an upset and the Republicans win both houses, US equity markets will rally broadly as companies sensitive to tax cuts and de-regulation will outperform. Additionally, in bonds, 10-year Treasury yields most likely would break the high end of their recent range. The win would validate the current administration’s aggressive trade approach. Non-US equity markets would be likely to underperform since investors will pursue deregulation and more tax cuts. Finally, the win would result in a strong dollar, which would be bad for emerging markets. (Rapoza)

In opposition, if the Democrats were to win both houses, then deregulation would slow down. It would also create a higher chance of Trump’s impeachment and the creation of legislation designed to constrain Trump. (Rapoza)

There may still be some uncertainty about the elections which is causing many investors to hold back on making big bets just in case there is a surprise outcome. Despite this, Wall Street realistically has very little to worry about. In midterm elections since 1946, the S&P 500 Index has had an average price return of 16.7 in the twelve months following the elections. (Jay, Veiga) While Wall Street as a whole will not be harmed, there may be minor political shifts causing shifts in investments. For instance, shares of gun makers may change as Congress reshapes gun control laws. Additionally, there may be more possible investments in infrastructure because that is an area when Trump and the Democrats may be able to find a common ground. Adversely, pharmaceuticals could suffer because both parties favor drug price control. 

The likely outcome of the midterm elections will be gridlock. This will result in the predictable rise in investments post midterm elections and then subside to the United States continuation of its economic agenda. 

Sources:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/06/heres-what-every-major-wall-street-firm-expects-from-the-election-and-how-to-play-it.html

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2018/10/04/midterm-alert-what-happens-if-republicans-actually-keep-congress/#694cc3857412

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/2018/10/18/midterm-elections-stocks/38201061/