Californian Magic Is Real – The GDP Says So

In many aspects, California has been seen as a unique case – at times an anomaly, even – of an American state. During the Rio Olympics there were many mentions of how many medals from the American roster belonged to California, and how that number would compare to other competing countries. When it comes to GDP, one can most definitely expect the similar kind of discussion taking place, especially in the current political atmosphere where the intensely progressive and liberal California stands among an overall right-leaning U.S.A..

The above graph shows California’s annual GDP growth since 2000. As the data suggests, California’s economy has remained largely healthy throughout the way, only taking a reasonable hit upon entering the 2008 Financial Crisis. However, as Bloomberg noted, California has seen a surprisingly speedy recovery compared to the rest of the nation, which the news agency accredited to the state’s liberal cultural-political environment, even going as far as saying that California “is the chief reason America is the only developed economy to achieve record GDP growth since the financial crisis of 2008 and ensuing global recession”.

The article attributed California’s “magic” to its left-leaning policies, such as securing a strong labor force through laws favoring immigrants. At a time where the President has been very outspoken against the topic, California strives to do the exact opposite, by exercising its autonomy on a state level. From raising taxes instead of lowering to encouraging companies to globalize rather than discouraging, California is almost a “rebellious child” in the eyes of the federal government. However, this rebellion has proven successful, as California’s real GDP growth maintained an upward momentum since climbing out of the recession until 2015, where it attained 4.4% while the entire country had only seen 2.6% that year.

There is no reason to believe that California would change course from what it has been doing and what has been working under the Trump administration. In fact, the President’s orders would act as the inverse-compass for the Californian economy. Despite having seen a dip in 2016, California does not seem to concern itself with this little hiccup, and from the looks of its policies, the state is set on remaining being that “problem child” in Mr. Trump’s classroom.

U.S. GDP Grew 3%, Fastest Growth since 2012

The U.S. Commerce Department said on Wednesday that the U.S. economy had expanded by 3% in the second quarter (April-June) of the year. It’s not only better than the previous estimate, 2.6%, but also a substantial boost from the first quarter’s 1.2%.

 

“The acceleration in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected upturns in private inventory investment and federal government spending and an acceleration in PCE that were partly offset by downturns in residential fixed investment and state and local government spending and a deceleration in exports,” according to the report. To sum up, consumer spending is basically the backbone of the second quarter GDP growth.

President Trump commented on the growth that he thinks the economy will “go much higher than 3 percent.” Economists and the media, however, are not too optimistic about future growth. In an analysis, the New York Times straight-out called it a “Sisyphean challenge”:

“There are several reasons that his goal is probably far-fetched, namely the country’s aging work force and slower population growth than in the past. Combine that with low productivity growth, and hitting Mr. Trump’s target begins to look like a Sisyphean challenge.”

The impact of Hurricane Harvey is minor, according to a CNBC analysis.

President Trump said on Wednesday, “on a yearly basis, as you know, the last administration during an eight-year period never hit 3%. So we’re really on our way.”

However, he is incorrectly comparing a quarterly growth to an annual growth. In this handy chart by Fortune, we can see clearly that quarterly growth during Obama exceeded 3% eight times.