A24: The Starving Artist’s Retort

To all the painfully expensive Venice Blvd. Dwayne Johnson HOBBES AND SHAW billboards inundating helpless drivers caught in traffic on their way home hopelessly lost in an urban sea of shallow material obsession forcing said drivers to look not up to the sky but down at their cellphones only to result in rear-end collisions driving up insurance rates and adding to the misery of driving in Los Angeles, take notes. 

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Thanks to Netflix and the subsequent endless onslaught and validation of streaming media, the traditional American box office is at a crossroads. On paper as a simple bottom line, both the American and international box offices are more profitable than ever before. However, though 2018 brought in the most ticket sales revenue in film history, there are several factors inflating this figure that hide the dire economic conditions of the theatrical film market. This is due to the number of films and average ticket price having increased, while the individual average film gross has steadily decreased in the past five years. At play is a consumer reluctance to go to theaters, leading to a huge disparity and disconnect between massive budget blockbusters and low-mid budget films now relegated to the indie film circuit. The unavoidable truth for film studios and distributors is that viewers now would rather simply stay home to watch content provided by a few gargantuan media monoliths (cough, Disney). Hope for the independent feature wholly funded and produced for the sake of artistic expression seems slim. And amidst all this chaos and change is one relatively small-but-mighty independent distributor quietly finding their own way to survive. 

A24 began as a bank loan-funded venture of former studio and independent film executives Daniel Katz, David Fenkel, and John Hughes. Each had years of experience seeing film distribution done the traditional way, with lots of micromanagement and compromise to varying results. They set out to make film possible using different methods, with the common mantra of “there’s gotta be a better way” (Baron).  The company sprung up hot on the independent film scene in 2013, as three of their five inaugural releases (Spring Breakers, The Bling Ring, and The Spectacular Now) more than doubled their budgets back at the box office. Before jumping into the A24 model and why they have managed to keep consumer interest in today’s divided media climate where many other independent film distributors have failed to adjust, the context of the industry must be laid out. A24 is the product of a cavern separating the “art” from the “entertainment” in American film, a gap traditional major studios are too tied up in old ways and too caught up with sacred Intellectual Property to mitigate. Decades of changes in the film industry and in media consumption habits serve as the crux of why a company like A24 is necessary. 

The economics of filmmaking have undoubtedly changed by the ever-rising star of the blockbuster. From 1975’s Jaws to 2019’s Avengers: Endgame, the primary sell for studios is creating a piece of Intellectual Property that sticks and can drive several avenues for profit just on name brand alone. What this has led to is a shift away from the musicals and melodramas of the 1950s that drew large crowds for their star-talent and songs, towards behemoth franchises with huge stakes, astronomical budgets, and massive icons leading the cast. There’s more money to be made on a box-office smash than ever before today, proven this year as Avengers: Endgame set the new record for highest box office gross (dethroning the seemingly untouchable ten-year king Avatar).  Unfortunately, average individual film ticket sales have decreased from $15 million in 2015 to $12 million in 2019. Adding the pessimism surrounding this figure is the fact that ticket prices have only increased year over year, incentivizing more critical consumer selection in choosing what film to go see. To dive into the psychology behind this, I talked with my internship supervisor at Creative Artists Agency. 

What he laid out was basically that on both sides of the deal, it’s so much harder for the independent low-mid budget feature to survive in theaters. Studios have far less incentive to release films with unestablished talent or unfamiliar material that may not justify the cost of producing and marketing than if they can release IP based material that markets the concept on its own. The exception to this for studios is Oscar season films, which are released at the end of the year so as to grab the eyes of Academy members before they vote, all in the hopes that the filmmakers and studio will gain further clout and profit from the increased public awareness. This creates a tension between any film that doesn’t fit into an easily packaged box. Adding to the difficulty of getting an indie released and seen in theaters is that the box office faces more competition today than ever before. This brings us to the problem on the consumer side of the deal. There are simply far more options for watching movies, television, short-form videos and social media clips than can be named. Film studios are now not only in competition with their counterparts, but also with every source of media a consumer comes across on a daily basis that keeps eyeballs on a laptop or cell phone instead of a movie screen. The common thought is, why go out to a theater and pay $20 for one movie when you can watch whatever you want whenever you want from the comfort of your couch? Additionally, why take the risk of spending so much  on an indie movie you know little about when you could see something whose entertainment value is assured in the form of a superhero/action franchise sequel?

Not helping the plight of the indie film at theaters is the fact that corporate media giants have entered the bidding space alongside independent film distributors. Indie films are most often produced off of the financing of small production companies and are sold at film festivals to the most ideal bidder in terms of price, brand, and opportunity. Festivals like Sundance, Telluride, and Cannes have become platforms for the independent filmmakers to get their art out to the world. Traditionally, distribution companies like Miramax (now defunct essentially), The Weinstein Company (good riddance), Fox Searchlight (now under Disney), and Focus Features (under NBCUniversal) propose fairly similar prices for films that perform well at these festivals. Today however, massively bankrolled companies like Netflix and Amazon come to the table and offer prices independent film distribution companies cannot compete with, which sends these projects to streaming services and away from theaters. So, is there any love out there for a lonely independent feature trying to survive in theaters?

(Courtesy of The New York Times, photo of A24 Founders)

Enter A24. Seemingly the only independent film distributor with its head above water as 2019 comes to a close. And they are doing so without any franchises or high profile historical Oscar-bait pictures to their name. Forgive my simplifications, but instead of going familiar and often unintelligent, A24 bets on the complex and unique. So what separates A24 from the major risk-averse studios and big-betting streamers? What gives you the right to say they’re superior to Dwayne Johnson and his beautiful billboards? 

Yes, it would be pretentious and foolish to assume that independent film is objectively superior to major studio produced content. However, what A24 in particular does offer is a diverse set of films made by a diverse set of talented individuals, utilizing the attention economy to hit their target demographic better than any of the studios would with the same films. They don’t even buy low to sell high. They buy low, and sell…different. Instead of playing to indie film’s pretentious reputation, they listen and understand their audience, mostly consisting of 18-35 year olds in major cities. And most importantly, they’ve bet on good taste and creative vision (box office results below courtesy of the-numbers.com)

There’s no clean way to categorize what an A24 film in terms of content beyond that it will be something you most likely haven’t seen before. Several profile pieces in GQ, The New York Times, The Economist, and many other publications have detailed how this studio went from virtually unknown at the beginning of 2013 to indie film royalty in 2019. As mentioned at the top of this piece, the founders of A24 saw the way film distributors took away from the end result of a film by meddling too much. They seek out strong and talented creative voices, buys the distribution rights for often less than $5 million, and in an exercise of trust allows the creators to make and keep the film how they deem best. At the same time, A24 uses data analytics softwares like Operam and “web-focused marketing agencies” to better determine who they should be marketing the movie towards. 

A24’s aesthetic quality and distinct designs have built their brand recognition up considerably. They are known for strikingly artistic and subdued posters and color schemes, while they maintain freedom as a genreless studio.  They use social media, trailers projected during music festivals, and guerilla campaigns to market their films instead of 50 massive eyesore billboards and ridiculously expensive ads during primetime football. They know their target audience isn’t paying attention to those traditional sources, and they trust that there are smarter and more effective ways to reach them utilizing social media and phones in everyone’s pockets (examples of which below). An example of this would be for their film Ex Machina, A24 started a rogue Tinder profile at the SXSW festival in Austin for one of the film’s characters that slyly drove matches towards the film’s instagram page (Barnes). 

(Courtesy of Breakfast at Cinemark’s Blog)

A24’s strength and advantage over other independent film studios is in not trying to play the studio game. They give their audience what no other studio is willing to with individualized content and a direct line to the artists uninterrupted by meddling corporate hands (A24 started their own podcast series where their filmmakers talk craft with each other). In terms of competition, A24’s closest rival was Annapurna Pictures. However, Annapurna played less smart financially and tried to nab prestige by spending large amounts of money on film budgets upwards of $20 million and on releasing films on weekends directly competing with huge blockbusters to show they can compete. Unsurprisingly, Annapurna recently announced that they face bankruptcy or bailout (Sharf). 

A24 takes risks creatively, but not so much so financially. Their budgets range from $1-12 million, and they cut down on unnecessary and inefficient marketing costs (especially for indie films) by using social media and guerilla campaigns like the Tinder page rather than billboards and primetime TV advertisements. They know their target demographic likely isn’t watching traditional TV and is more likely to be found on the web. It remains to be seen whether A24 will stay successful in the coming years, as more and more independent films flock to Netflix to survive the thinning of theater audiences. However, they’ve built a solid track record of quality films while allowing the rare opportunity for filmmakers to make what they want how they want (Barnes). 

Despite the fact that the company did not exist seven years ago, they already have 25 Academy Award nominations, 6 Academy Award wins (including Best Picture for 2016’s Moonlight), and release nearly as many films a year as each major studio. They have cornered the indie film market, and sneakily found other avenues of profit without appearing as more a corporation than film financier. Their website also functions as a considerable merchandising operation, as they make indie cassette tapes, candles, trinkets, and various other hipster products based off their films (as seen below). 

 A24 has branched out into comedy specials and television in the past three years to strong results. They remain incredibly tight lipped on their internal workings and financial breakdown apart from box office, so the future of this truly unique brand in the theatrical film market seems entirely in their hands. To deal with consumer desire for streaming media access, A24 struck a profitable deal with Showtime Networks to put their films on Showtime’s streaming service. It seems at each angle, as long as they keep trusting that consumers want unique content, they can continue their model and quietly rewrite the rules of film marketing and what it means to get the incredibly distracted consumer of 2019 into a theater for two hours to experience something new. 

Sources:

https://www.economist.com/prospero/2016/08/02/the-surreal-dreamlike-films-of-a24

https://www.highsnobiety.com/p/a24-studio/

https://www.gq.com/story/a24-studio-oral-history

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/

http://www.makeindependentfilms.com/history.htm

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/distributor/A24#tab=year

https://shop.a24films.com/

http://www.hoovers.com/company-information/cs/company-profile.a24_films_llc.e0e669311fa0de36.html?aka_re=1

Daryl Morey vs. the World

Hailing from Baraboo, Wisconsin, Houston Rockets General Manager Daryl Morey was on  top of the world. By relying on statistical analysis and the true shooting percentage stat, he has built the Houston Rockets basketball team into an NBA powerhouse. They have made the playoffs every year since 2012, a feat only two other teams have accomplished in team history. Morey has made some of the biggest signings of all time by securing James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, and many more players to long term deals.

The Houston Rockets have maintained their strong international presence created by the 2000s, and opened the door for the first Chinese star in the NBA by drafting Yao Ming in 2002. Now, James Harden is the 3rd highest selling jersey in China, where the NBA is the most popular sports league. According to Vox, more people watch NBA games in China than in the U.S. The NBA has built its reputation as a global league primarily through China as a touchpoint, creating hundreds of millions in revenue through merchandise sales and countless fans through Chinese NBA exhibition games. The economic and cultural stakes of the NBA’s relationship with China are no light burden. 

And then with a single tweet having nothing to do with basketball, Daryl Morey threatened to collapse the NBA’s massive commercial market in China. The owner of the very team that first struck superfandom in Chinese basketball fans hearts, became a major enemy of the Chinese corporations that air NBA games. He tweeted, “Fight for freedom, stand with Hong Kong.” While Morey may have tweeted with good intentions and used his American right to speak freely, China saw his tweet as a rebellion effort and insult to their country. China’s biggest airer of NBA games, Tencent, put all Rockets broadcasts on hold. Chinese fans were outraged by Morey’s comments and seeming insensitivity to China’s stake in the Hong Kong protests. The NBA sent out two statements, one apologizing to China for Morey’s “wrong” actions, and one acknolwedging the situation to the U.S. public. This did not go over smoothly, as both sides could read the other, and recognized the NBA trying to pander to sentiments to maintain a sense of peace (and keep their flow of profit). Morey has since removed his tweet, and kept quiet about the whole situation. 

This speaks to the larger trickiness present in U.S.-China trade in the age of social media. With a few words Morey probably didn’t think twice about, he threatened the balance of a billion dollar industry in which billions of people across the globe participate. Daryl Morey has found support from those who are unhappy about Chinese censorship’s power over American industries, which is exemplary of the American government’s current sentiments towards trade with China. 

This situation is unfortunate because the global commerce, sponsorship, and ambassadorial pursuits of the NBA have built up so much momentum in the past few years, and Morey’s tweet may set that progress back. Though this doesn’t drastically affect the trade war, upsetting the titanic corporation of Tencent does upset the hundreds of millions of viewers who lose out on NBA games and American corporations who stand to make huge profit on sponsorship deals. 

Sources: 

https://www.si.com/nba/2019/08/16/rockets-daryl-morey-james-harden-better-shooter-michael-jordan

California AB5: Gig Economy Off The Rails

On September 18th, California Assembly Bill 5 (AB5) was signed into law. Its effects will be felt most strongly in the gig economy, where many don’t feel great about it. The basic premise of California AB5 is to define the law what constitutes independent contracting and what circumstances make workers full employees with benefits (such as minimum hourly wage and compensation plans).  

Lyft, Uber, Postmates, and DoorDash are the companies where the most workers will be affected.  Hundreds of thousands of drivers (alongside thousands at other companies in this gig economy space) will now be considered employees. Full time drivers are in for a somewhat good change, as they will receive positive benefits but are also now committing themselves to businesses that were designed to profit off of independent contractors. According to a Lyft driver interviewed in a recent report in the Wall Street Journal, ride rates have decreased by about 50% in the past four years. The cost of being a full-time driver is now higher and higher because they make near (and sometimes sub) minimum wage and have to pay the costs of keeping their vehicles in top shape at all times. In the chart below you can see how much California makes up of these companies profit streams. 

The people that AB5 affects most negatively are the part time drivers, as they now lose the flexibility of choosing when and how long they work in the face of being required and pushed to work more and more hours to make being a driver actually profitable. Expenses like gas, car repair, and giving up time at other part-time/independent professional endeavors will take a toll and force these drivers to either seek full time employment or move on to other pursuits. Other states will most likely follow the path California AB5 has set up, as gig economy corporations have grown sacel-wise at such a rate in usage and in contractors that labor laws must be passed to ensure the safety of full time workers. Adding the misfortune of drivers negatively affected by this bill is that they still have no control over what the pricing on rides is. Uber and Lyft can cut back pricing on rides as much as they want to accommodate the decrease in drivers on the street

Uber alone accounts for over 65% of the ride share market according to the Business of Apps journal. Even as their IPO this year did not go very well, they still stand as the juggernaut in the ride service arena, as seen in the Statista chart below. 

On the opposite consumer side of things, this bill will lower the amount of uber drivers on the street while demand keeps increasing, and according to the Wall Street Journal will make ride prices unstable. It will be interesting to see how this change affects the free shared rides agreement Lyft has with USC for a two mile radius around campus. Many students use it to get home safely each night, as this benefit activates after 7pm. It would not be unreasonable for the company to cease programs like this for the time being while their employee number will likely go through a shifting period. 

Sources: 

https://qz.com/1706754/california-senate-passes-ab5-to-turn-independent-contractors-into-employees/

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-09-22/skelton-ab5-employment-law-independent-contractors-gig-economy

https://www.theatlas.com/charts/OffkCowSV

https://www.statista.com/chart/17261/lyft-vs-uber/

The Witching Hour of the Yield Curve

To an economic layman such as myself, the words “inverted yield curve” do not immediately mean too much. However, hearing that this past August was the first time the U.S. had an inverted yield curve since before the 2008 recession seems like cause for alarm, so I have attempted to break down this indicator. 

The yield curve measures how the interest rate (or yield percentage) changes over a certain maturation period. With U.S. Treasury bonds, the curve takes into account whether the Fed raises or lowers interest rates and if investors believe their money will have future value or not.  When looking at the curve, it’s clear to see that in a healthy economy the yield curve should slope upward as that indicates investors believe that both investing now is wise and that future bonds will appreciate in value. When the yield curve inverts in slope, this indicates that investor confidence in the market’s future is low and that they would rather keep their money in long term bonds than current investments. Yield percentage on long term bonds (Ten years +) has an inverse relationship with demand, so as investor and Federal Reserve confidence in the market goes up, long-term yield prices will drop. 

Basically, when the yield percentage on bonds is greater for ten year bonds, that means less investors are buying ten year bonds and are instead investing in short term high-risk and high-reward investments. This bodes well for the economy as it means investors will spend believing they can get return soon. If the curve inverts, this means investors do not want to spend now and in turn that U.S. economic prospects look dim. Summer of 2019 has been the first time since the Great Recession that the curve has inverted, leaving economists fearing what comes next. 

Economists are concerned and wary because historically, the inverted yield curve occurred six to nine months before recessions (only one time in the past 70 years has this indicator been proven wrong). However, the inverted yield curve doesn’t necessarily directly cause recessions. The tricky reality is that economists have not been able to come to a consensus on what the isolated link between the inverted yield curve and recessions are, so for now though there is cause for concern, there isn’t cause for despair. 

For the present U.S. economy, these indicators could point towards the uncertainty surrounding trade agreements and tariffs (particularly with China). Some say this will make goods cost more,  and that there will be fewer jobs both supporting the production of those goods as employees and paying for the goods as consumers. Most economists agree that recessions are an inevitable season in a country’s economic life, and a recent study by the National Association for Business Economics found that 74% of business economists believe a recession will hit the U.S. by 2021. The consistency with which inverted yield curves have predicted recessions is stark and undeniable, but in order to more wholly assess the health of the U.S. economy, the many other economic indicators have to be weighed equally. 

Sources:

  1. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-things-investors-need-to-know-about-an-inverted-yield-curve-2019-08-14
  2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ukfA65KYyBY
  3. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bItazfbSptI
  4. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oW4hfaiXKG8