Economic indicators are crucial to helping determine the state of the economy. As we are unable to physically or literally see the economy per se, economic indicators allow us to not only confirm economic trends (lagging indicators), but they also enable to help us predict future patterns and cycles.

While economists mostly rely on economic indicators such as a nation’s gross domestic product, unemployment rate, or consumer price index, there are also more unusual and unconventional indicators which may illustrate an economy’s state. An economic indicator that I found particularly interesting was the Marine Advertisement Intensity Index. The concept is simple: The more intense in nature the advertisements for the Marines were, the weaker the job market – and subsequently, the economy.

The Marines – as well as any branch of the U.S. military – offers many benefits in order to make enlisting more desirable and appealing to potential new recruits. According to the Marines’ official website, a Marine can enjoy “full health coverage, access to on-base medical facilities, free on-base housing, monthly housing allowances, low-cost mortgage loans and educational funding.” Furthermore, Marine families are also offered additional amenities, including healthcare, day-care and counselling. During an economic recession, these benefits and the promise of job security can seem especially appealing to high-school graduates who may feel that a potentially high college loan is unjustified – especially if the prospects of a future job are uncertain. In contrast, during times of economic prosperity, more high-school graduates are likely to go to college – therefore lowering the number of new Marine recruits.

The intensity of Marine advertisements is then reflected in the amount of people who enlist. In 2005, the Marines’ advertisement “The Climb” sought to recruit new members by invoking feeling of patriotism, pride, and accomplishment. The advertisement depicts a lone young man climbing a cliff without any equipment. While he struggles, images of Marines in full dress uniform, helping young children, and working together under a waving American flag are superimposed on the cliff-face encourage him to climb on. At the end, the advertisement emphasizes teamwork and duty in order to convince young men to enlist. In 2005 the economy and the job market was booming – however at the same time, it was a tough year in terms of Marine recruitment. The advertisement sought to recruit all who were willing – evident in its highly emotive, patriotic advertisement.

In 2008, however, saw the Marine Corps not only meeting but exceeding recruitment goals for the next three years. Furthermore, 99% of the new recruits were high-school graduates – up from 95%. Subsequently, the 2009 Marines advertisement, “America’s Few,” depicted a very different lifestyle than the one shown in the 2004 advertisement. In “America’s Few,” three men are shown enduring the rigorous challenges of boot-camp training, including but not limited to, running through intense obstacle courses, undergoing intense physical training, and bracing brutal, unforgiving weather. This grittier, perhaps more realistic depiction of military life illustrates a change in mentality – with more people willing to sign up, the Marines have the luxury of choice and can afford to be pickier in who they recruit.

 

When looking at the data, there is a clear correlation between unemployment rates and the number of new recruit. In 2004, the U.S. unemployment rate was 5.5%. In 2009, however, this rate soared to 9.3%. (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.) The number of new recruits in 2004 and 2009 fiscal year were 36,794 and 42,226 respectively. (Marine Corps. Times, U.S. Department of Defense)

The trend seems to have continued, with the Marine Corps accession rate dropping to 32,215 in 2013. (Department of Defense) At the same time, their numerical accession goals have dropped – perhaps in anticipation of a slowly recovering job market. Does that mean we can expect – assuming unemployment rates continue to drop – not only fewer recruits, but also recruits who are not as strong as the recruits of 2008 or 2009? It is interesting that in an unstable economy, more and more Americans are willing to endure not only arduous physical military training but also the possibility of warfare and violence in hopes of securing a better future – just a glimpse into the desperation that the Great Recession created.