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<\/a>Courtesy of Creative Commons. Robots at work, lifting shelves with product.<\/p><\/div>\n
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Amazon is expanding its workforce, which is <\/span>18 times<\/span><\/a> larger than Facebook, in its growing fulfillment and distribution network, while at the same time bringing automation to almost every step of warehouse workflow.<\/span><\/p>\n There are currently <\/span>125,000<\/span><\/a> people working at Amazon\u2019s warehouses, which comprise 90 million square feet across the United States, and the company is continually adding to that base with new personnel and technology. <\/span><\/p>\n Now, among human workers, there are an increasing number of robotic companions. Amazon acquired robot manufacturer Kiva Systems in 2012 for<\/span> $775 million.<\/span><\/a> Two years later, and under the name of Amazon Robotics, they rolled out their automated product, which carts items around the warehouse, ordered from across the country. That\u2019s in addition to a whole host of other automated equipment, from robotic palletizers to machines that measure the correct amount of tape needed per box. <\/span><\/p>\n Amazon\u2019s reliance on robots marks another shift in the labor market similar to the one that was seen after agriculture became automated and industrial tools became automated. In each case, new jobs were created to deal with labor displacement; the former in industry and the latter in the service-based economy. When robots eventually replace all humans in these warehouses, the roadmap to new employment isn\u2019t so clear. <\/span><\/p>\n Therefore, figuring out how robots and humans will work together in the future can hedge against large scale layoffs and tough transitions into new jobs and unemployment. What Amazon is doing at their warehouses to make their trademark two-day shipping work is at the intersection between how machines and people can work together. Or how robotics can erase the human element. It will undoubtedly mold the future of the economy.<\/span><\/p>\n Automation, especially in the case of Amazon, can aid the workforce in many ways but it can also hurt Amazon\u2019s labor by potentially displacing those 125,000 warehouse workers, and beyond that, the people that do deliveries. <\/span><\/p>\n Robots can help people increase their productivity and can benefit their health at the same time said <\/span>Jennifer Miller<\/span><\/a>, assistant professor at the Sol Price School of Public Policy and expert in economic development, science and technology policy and workforce policy. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Miller said that working in a warehouse is physically demanding without robots to do the heavy lifting. Some workers develop pain lifting boxes all day; others may have to walk as many as 10 to <\/span>13 miles<\/span><\/a> a day. <\/span><\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s the kind of work, in some ways, that could benefit from automation in that it\u2019s not necessarily work that the workers doing it are finding [it] intrinsically satisfying,\u201d Miller said. \u201cThey\u2019re working for pay and in some cases taking a toll on their health.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n The robots make it easier for employees to do their work and it also increases overall efficiency, which is why Amazon is slowly adding these machines to its workforce while at the same time slowly paring down the human element. <\/span><\/p>\n Despite Amazon announcing that they employ more than <\/span>one million people<\/span><\/a>, robots are playing an even bigger role in their day-to-day operations. Last year, Amazon added <\/span>75,000 <\/span><\/a>more robots, the majority of them being Kiva bots. That brings their total automated units to one-fifth of all company employees. <\/span> Visualization by Quartz.com.<\/p><\/div>\n <\/p>\n These robots cut down the time it takes to get an item off a shelf and into a box from 90 minutes to 10 to 13 minutes. It also increases storage space by 50 percent because the Kiva bots can line up right against each other. <\/span><\/p>\n Without automation, Amazon would have difficulty satiating customer\u2019s demands and collecting the revenue that it does. In quarter three Amazon\u2019s sales went up to $43.7 billion, partially due to acquiring Whole Foods, according to the company\u2019s financial results. Amazon also announced that Cyber Monday 2017 was the <\/span>biggest sales day<\/span><\/a> for the company. <\/span><\/p>\n This increase in efficiency has lead to the growth of online retail and Amazon in particular. For 2017, Amazon accounts for 20% of U.S. retail industry growth. Their stock alone went up 57 percent, reflecting the excitement that investors have in automation and Amazon\u2019s <\/span>foray<\/span><\/a> into artificial intelligence with Amazon Web Services.<\/span><\/p>\n Visualization by Quartz.com.<\/p><\/div>\n <\/p>\n With Amazon\u2019s innovation in automation, the company is seeing efficiency in their workforce and supply chain and a highly valued stock, with a price to earnings ratio of nearly <\/span>300<\/span><\/a>. At the same time, that means the outlook for labor in retail and at warehouses is dismal.<\/span><\/p>\n Yahoo Finance – Amazon’s stock price over this year.<\/p><\/div>\n <\/p>\n \u201cI think they are pushing the limits and trying to see what they can do to eliminate their dependence on human labor,\u201d Miller said. <\/span><\/p>\n Quartz <\/span>estimates<\/span><\/a> that employment in retail and at Amazon itself could decrease by 24,000 even though Amazon continues it\u2019s aggressive hiring strategy. <\/span><\/p>\n Automation hasn\u2019t gotten to the point of completely replacing humans in warehouses, but rapid technological innovation means that Amazon is one step closer. Miller said that only one out of four unique human characteristics has been successfully modeled in machines, which include cognition, emotion, dexterity and creativity.<\/span><\/p>\n Robots have reached the point of cognition. Google\u2019s artificial reality system, called AlphaGo, beat a master at one of the most complex games in the world. And in <\/span>10 years<\/span><\/a>, experts predict that AI will be better at humans than writing a high school essay. Within 74 years, AI could be better than humans at everything. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Machines still struggle with emotion, dexterity and creativity. Once Amazon is able to create a robot that has dexterity analogous to a human grip, there may not be a worker left in a warehouse, apart from engineers. <\/span><\/p>\n Yet they still have a lot progress to make. Amazon held a <\/span>competition<\/span><\/a> in 2015 with aims of developing a \u201cpicking\u201d robot that can take items off a shelf and deposit them in a bin. The best robot in a competition with engineers around the world could only pick 10 out of the required 12 items. And it took that robot around twenty minutes to complete its task. For a human it would take a handful of seconds. <\/span><\/p>\n Even if humans are faster, workers only spend around <\/span>one minute<\/span><\/a> per order \u2014 picking items, depositing them in bins and assembling and taping boxes. The rest \u2014 measuring the amount of tape needed per box, the size of the box and transporting the items around the warehouse \u2014 are done exclusively by robots. <\/span><\/p>\n The important question, though, is what society and Amazon will do when robots exclude the human element entirely. This increased reliance on automation is different than every major shift in the history of labor.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cThe difference this time is that we are beginning to automate cognitive work,\u201d Miller said. \u201cThe work that was thought to be purely human.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n Miller said universal basic income, a highly politically sensitive topic, might be a solution.<\/span><\/p>\n Universal basic income essentially pays people for being alive. Money would be handed out by the government at a recurring time to everyone, independent of their age, employment status and a whole host of other variables. The only issue is figuring out to pay for it. <\/span><\/p>\n A pilot program in Finland is <\/span>paying<\/span><\/a> 2,000 people an income of 590\u20ac a month for two years since the program started in Jan. 2017. The idea is to find out if people will abuse the money or use it to start a business or find another job that a robot potentially couldn\u2019t do. Hawaii also passed a <\/span>resolution<\/span><\/a> in June to request that their state government \u201cconvene a basic economic security working group\u201d to determine the feasibility of UBI. <\/span><\/p>\n \u201cThe data that\u2019s been collected from pilot programs tends to show positive effects,\u201d Miller said. \u201cIn fact, some people are more likely to work more because they avoid the traumas of just struggling to eat and have a roof over their heads.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n Whether or not UBI is implemented in the U.S., when companies like Amazon make the transition over to full automation in their warehouses, families will have more time to engage in intrinsically valuable work. Miller said that looks like caring for older family members and putting children through school. <\/span><\/p>\n Amazon\u2019s response by their employees and spokespeople to the threat of labor displacement has been mild and even positive in the media, when the potential effects of automation are negative. Another more positive economic view could justify Amazon\u2019s happy-go-lucky response. <\/span><\/p>\n One, automation can <\/span>induce more demand<\/span><\/a>, which may make it necessary for Amazon, in this example, to hire more workers. It will increase the company revenue, leading to higher pay, and thus more demand for goods as workers will have more of a disposable income.<\/span><\/p>\n Two, other jobs will be created in the absence of the warehouse type work at Amazon distribution centers. Every ten year period since 1929 has seen <\/span>increases<\/span><\/a> in productivity and employment. Still, the future is uncertain.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cThe concern has always been with these waves of automation is that ok this time it will be different, this time the new jobs won\u2019t appear,\u201d Miller said. \u201cBecause while the automation is taking place there isn\u2019t a clear roadmap to where the new jobs will be.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n Finally, the working population in the U.S. and many other countries is on the decline. Employment, according to the McKinsey Global Institute, will have an average growth of about 0.3 percent per year for the next 50 years. So it may be necessary for those robots to step in where labor shortages, not only in Amazon, but in other companies, will affect their production. <\/span><\/p>\n Other competitors to Amazon are making use of robots too. Quiet Logistics runs fulfillment centers for companies who compete with Amazon, and they have recently launched their own robots, which function similar to Amazon\u2019s machines. They are predicting that warehouse productivity will shoot up <\/span>800<\/span><\/a> percent. <\/span><\/p>\n Amazon is bringing automation beyond just the warehouses and distribution centers. Select Amazon Prime members in the U.K. are getting their products delivered to them by drones, which would completely cut out the delivery truck driver. Automation of long-haul and delivery truck drivers threatens nearly 2 million people according to the White House under the Obama administration. <\/span><\/p>\n
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